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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2023 OBS Thread


JTA66
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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

2014 which also had a below normal July

 

As I said in the other thread, we have seen a NW, N, NNE, or NE flow predominantly basically since May this is going to be very interesting come Nov. to March.  One of two things will happen blocking or all the warmth to the South and West and the Oceanic heat will cause all temps to blend bringing warmth and rain.  I guess we stand at 50/50 I don't know. 

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On 8/24/2023 at 7:05 AM, Kevin Reilly said:

What is amazing to me is that last night at 10:05 our time Madison Wisconsin had a heat index of 105 degrees we were sitting at 69 degrees at the same time.  The pattern is well pretty amazing!  I have only had 2 90-degree days here in August so far and it barely hit 90 too during those days.  I cannot wait to see what this pattern looks like in 3-4 months.  We will either have very very cold snow or all the heat across the country and the waters just bleeds out and we see 60s and 50s with rain. 

What was probably more amazing was that D.C. didn't get their 1st August 90 until 8/12. :lol:

I ended up get mostly fringed by the rain so far (although I'll take what I got which was more than nothing).  Had 0.12" late last night and then another 0.19" on and off this morning for a 2-day total of 0.31".

Had a low of 68 and it's currently mostly cloudy with breaks of sun, and a humid 83 (my high so far) with dp 74.

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2 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

As I said in the other thread, we have seen a NW, N, NNE, or NE flow predominantly basically since May this is going to be very interesting come Nov. to March.  One of two things will happen blocking or all the warmth to the South and West and the Oceanic heat will cause all temps to blend bringing warmth and rain.  I guess we stand at 50/50 I don't know. 

One thing I am telling folks is I guarantee more snow this season than last.....how is that for being bold!!!

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57 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

83F/DP 74F

Another Winter forecast...decent breakdown:

 

we.jpg

I cannot disagree with this forecast, but it sounds an awful lot like the winter of 2009-2010.  Wild times ahead I think for sure after September and October.  In regard to Nor Easter development you can already see where a temperature gradient can or could form along the benchmark.

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14 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

One thing I am telling folks is I guarantee more snow this season than last.....how is that for being bold!!!

Hahaha you're great.  I can't wait in Media we picked up 1.7" the entire winter here southeast of the fall line in Media.  LOL I agree I am bold with you.  Here we go I will say we pick up 20-35" in Media this year. 

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4 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I cannot disagree with this forecast, but it sounds an awful lot like the winter of 2009-2010.  Wild times ahead I think for sure after September and October.  In regard to Nor Easter development you can already see where a temperature gradient can or could form along the benchmark.

We'll never see that again unless something super strange happens. We go from 1" (or less) last year to 78.7"....we can have quite a range around here.

winter.jpg

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1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Looks like our soon-to-be-a-(Philly Special)-"I" tropical cyclone is in the making (just became a TD).

Had a low of 71 this morning and made it up to a humid 87 for a high.  It's currently a partly sunny and still-humid 84, with dp 70.

205449_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

I doubt this gets north of say Virginia Beach we will see the high clouds though looking south southeast. 

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13 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I doubt this gets north of say Virginia Beach we will see the high clouds though looking south southeast. 

If you have any frontal passage corresponding with it as it approaches, the moisture could get entrained in that to produce an overrunning event, regardless of whether we get a direct remnant hit or not.

This is what Ian did last year -

9-28-2am-NHC-Ian-cone.jpg

Et voila!

Between Sept. 30 - Oct. 5, I had 5.02" of rain from that!

Similarly, Ida gave me 5.41" of rain the year before on Sept. 1

032948_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Ida_2021_rainfall.gif

And in 2020, Isaias deposited 4.39" here on Aug. 4.

4VEAGVH6JRCT3JR53GVKTL5ZTI.jpg

And although the "S" word storm was the big one for people, Hurricane Issac gave us a little love in 2012 -

isaac2012filledrainblk.gif

I always keep an eye out for "I" storms around here (think "Irene", "Issac", "Irma" (got some splats), "Isais", "Ida", "Ian"). :lol:

As an obs, I think I have finally bottomed out at 67 and it's currently a partly sunny 68 with a lower dp (finally) of 64.

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Today should be near normal high temps for the day at near 80 degrees. Of note we have only reached the 80 degree mark 11 times through the first 26 days of August. Dry weather continues till towards Tuesday AM when shower chances ramp up. Sun returns on Wednesday but temperature look to remain below normal for the entire upcoming week.
Records for today: High 98 (1900) / Low 46 (1968) / Rain 5.25" (1971)
image.png.9925918daa1f7d8697c8c6a7599798d7.png

image.png

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I was watching that.  Always thought that was cool. :D

Made it up to 65 today and the dp was still hanging in that mid-60s.

Currently partly cloudy and 79 with dp 66.

As a side note, I ran the 18Z GFS and it picked up what looks like another tropical cyclone in the GOM and aimed it at TX right at the end of the run! :o  Sounds like it is getting warmed up for winter.  :lol:

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11 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I was watching that.  Always thought that was cool. :D

Made it up to 65 today and the dp was still hanging in that mid-60s.

Currently partly cloudy and 79 with dp 66.

As a side note, I ran the 18Z GFS and it picked up what looks like another tropical cyclone in the GOM and aimed it at TX right at the end of the run! :o  Sounds like it is getting warmed up for winter.  :lol:

On the Gulf is plenty warmed up for the Winter get ready!

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13 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

On the Gulf is plenty warmed up for the Winter get ready!

I ran an 18Z NAM and this is an example of not needing a hit but just having a front nearby to suck up the moisture!

All the models have been showing some high pushing down from Canada to send Idalia OTS (at varying degrees) but I suppose the strength and timing of it will definitely make a difference with the path.

 

floop-18z-nam-idalia-franklin-ani-2023082718.ref1km_ptype.conus-08272023.gif

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1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I ran an 18Z NAM and this is an example of not needing a hit but just having a front nearby to suck up the moisture!

All the models have been showing some high pushing down from Canada to send Idalia OTS (at varying degrees) but I suppose the strength and timing of it will definitely make a difference with the path.

 

floop-18z-nam-idalia-franklin-ani-2023082718.ref1km_ptype.conus-08272023.gif

Yes, the 12z Canadian showed Idalia slowing the front down and pushing tropical moisture up against the front to the tune of 2-4" that would be the scenario for heavy rain that could happen all depends on timing as you said.  

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