Hurricane Agnes Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 7 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: I think the seeds of the winter pattern are already in place just bring up the water vapor map and see the current pattern all systems go for southern jet storms to ride up the east coast. The fly in that ointment is that the Atlantic ocean SSTs are probably near record highs so unless you get a phase with a PV that pushes down this far, it'll be nor'easters and/or late/home-grown TCs (forming away from/north of the stj shearing - note that current disturbances have been getting sheared apart so far, with one that had even hit a 70% chance at becoming a PTC at some point a few days ago, that got knocked back down to 10% as of this morning). So far have bottomed out at 60 this morning and the dp has finally plummeted down into the low 50s. Currently 61 with dp 53. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said: The fly in that ointment is that the Atlantic ocean SSTs are probably near record highs so unless you get a phase with a PV that pushes down this far, it'll be nor'easters and/or late/home-grown TCs (forming away from/north of the stj shearing - note that current disturbances have been getting sheared apart so far, with one that had even hit a 70% chance at becoming a PTC at some point a few days ago, that got knocked back down to 10% as of this morning). So far have bottomed out at 60 this morning and the dp has finally plummeted down into the low 50s. Currently 61 with dp 53. If you ever needed a negative NAO it will be this winter! The abnormally warm SST's in the Atlantic and Gulf will be a huge energy source. Too far off for sure but how much worse can it be compared to last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said: If you ever needed a negative NAO it will be this winter! The abnormally warm SST's in the Atlantic and Gulf will be a huge energy source. Too far off for sure but how much worse can it be compared to last winter. My first call -- lots of southern sliders as the PV has to lock in early over the upper midwest in late November for us to see some "Big Daddy's" Lots of rain to sleet to snow storms and us being on the cusp on every storm event for precip types until early January. If one cold PV system locks up in mid December- game on. Actually the major game changer for this winter is a tropical system in late October for our area which can quickly rearrange the flow of frontal systems and change our weather pattern. I have seen it a bunch of times. The key will be how strong the tropical system will be and how it will help pull down colder air when it departs. Then the new pattern sets up for the next 30-60 days. The deeper the tropical system, more colder air dumps in behind the system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 24 minutes ago, Albedoman said: My first call -- lots of southern sliders as the PV has to lock in early over the upper midwest in late November for us to see some "Big Daddy's" Lots of rain to sleet to snow storms and us being on the cusp on every storm event for precip types until early January. If one cold PV system locks up in mid December- game on. Actually the major game changer for this winter is a tropical system in late October for our area which can quickly rearrange the flow of frontal systems and change our weather pattern. I have seen it a bunch of times. The key will be how strong the tropical system will be and how it will help pull down colder air when it departs. Then the new pattern sets up for the next 30-60 days. The deeper the tropical system, more colder air dumps in behind the system. We haven't seen much of this in recent/many years so I'm kinda skeptical. It's usually snow to sleet to rain quicker than expected but it's way early to make any "real" predictions... 73F/DP 58F Almost to 50... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 Lows were well below normal this morning with temps in the low to mid-50's which is over 10 degrees below normal for today. Below normal temps look to continue all week with an increasing chance of showers by Friday and Friday night. Records for today: High 100 (1955) / Low 47 (1959) / Rain 2.00" (1950) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 Looks like the weather is quite comfortable back east in PA! It's been a rainy week since I've been here in Wyoming. Chances of storms/showers every day with a SW Pacific flow into the region. Was able to visit a local hiking spot this past weekend. I think I'm gonna like it here... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Newman said: Looks like the weather is quite comfortable back east in PA! It's been a rainy week since I've been here in Wyoming. Chances of storms/showers every day with a SW Pacific flow into the region. Was able to visit a local hiking spot this past weekend. I think I'm gonna like it here... I can see why! So is that local local or 50 miles local? Beautiful either way. Had you been out there before? What's the elevation where that picture was taken? Good luck, and enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 30 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: I can see why! So is that local local or 50 miles local? Beautiful either way. Had you been out there before? What's the elevation where that picture was taken? Good luck, and enjoy! The picture is from a hiking spot about 45 miles outside of town, but speed limits here are 70-80mph so its not too far haha. I visited in April but this is my first time "living" out west. The peak of the rock cliff/mountain you see is 12,000 feet and the trail leads up that way, I was surprised to not get altitude sickness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 29 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: I can see why! So is that local local or 50 miles local? Beautiful either way. Had you been out there before? What's the elevation where that picture was taken? Good luck, and enjoy! Man, Wyoming is wild. I did a field study there 10 years ago and fell in love with all of it. So much naked geology, and so few people. One of my most favorite states, for sure. I'm particularly fond of the badlands in the north, with rainbow bands of sedimentation sliced here and there with exposed fault lines, where Cretaceous-aged fossils are continually weathering out of the lithography. I could spend an age exploring up there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 A pretty progressive and generally near normal temperature pattern looks to continue over the next week. Humidity will be a bit higher then the last couple days but still below normal temps. Rain chances increase tomorrow into the evening but then another beautiful weekend with temps rising to slightly above normal on Sunday before another cold front swings through on Monday drop us back to normal to slightly below. Records for today: High 96 (1957) / Low 48 (1964) / Rain 1.36" (1898) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted August 3, 2023 Author Share Posted August 3, 2023 On 8/2/2023 at 5:47 AM, Hurricane Agnes said: The fly in that ointment is that the Atlantic ocean SSTs are probably near record highs so unless you get a phase with a PV that pushes down this far, it'll be nor'easters and/or late/home-grown TCs (forming away from/north of the stj shearing - note that current disturbances have been getting sheared apart so far, with one that had even hit a 70% chance at becoming a PTC at some point a few days ago, that got knocked back down to 10% as of this morning). So far have bottomed out at 60 this morning and the dp has finally plummeted down into the low 50s. Currently 61 with dp 53. Hasn't that been our issue of late? Even when we get blocking, it links up with the SE ridge. Hopefully the Nino couples with the atmosphere this year and beats down the pig ridge. Bit more sticky out there this morning, 73F/DP 63F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 19 hours ago, JTA66 said: Hasn't that been our issue of late? Even when we get blocking, it links up with the SE ridge. Hopefully the Nino couples with the atmosphere this year and beats down the pig ridge. Bit more sticky out there this morning, 73F/DP 63F. The temps have been extra warm this year and so far, not much to churn the lower levels of the ocean up to the surface to mix it out. Will have to see what happens in fall. Bottomed out at 63 yesterday and had a high of 82, and the humidity was definitely noticeable. The overcast that advected in were noticeable as it was raining south of the metro area down in MD & DE. Currently an overcast 69 with what looks like some low stratus around, and dp 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 Following clouds today and showers tonight It looks like a great weekend ahead across the area. Sunshine low humidity and temps in the low to mid-80's should make for a near perfect summer weekend! Our next chance of showers following this evening looks to be Monday night before another stretch of pleasant near normal days kick in again for most of next week. Records for today: High 98 (1944) / Low 47 (1951) / Rain 5.83" (2020) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 Amazing how fast it gets dry despite over 14" in July need today to perform and it doesn't look good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 Sky looks pretty dark and ominous to my NW. 79.1°F/67.2 DP. Radar doesn't look that great though. I really want to grill tonight, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 Uh oh like Jiffypop popcorn the stream levels are falling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 those freaking t- storms in central PA are hitting a brick wall on the west side of the Blue Mts. I have not had a good rain in almost three weeks now. The severe t- storm watch should be dropped and chances of rain reduced to 30% for tonight as the squall line appears tobe in a disarray. Right now anyone SE of Hazelton is getting nothing tonight if these storms keep fizzling out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 Yeah, huge bust up here. Grilled my chicken though, so that was nice. Can't beat this weather for early August as well, though it's very not normal and I'm just waiting for it to flip back to "moist inferno". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 Wet day&night-not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 How chilly has it been? Well 19 of the last 22 days have featured below average temperatures here in Western Chester County. This weekend we should see temps averaging close to normal. Shower chances increase Sunday night through early Tuesday but most days except Monday this week should feature plenty of sunshine. Records for today: High 99 (1930) / Low 45 (1951) / Rain 1.41" (1987) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 18 hours ago, Albedoman said: those freaking t- storms in central PA are hitting a brick wall on the west side of the Blue Mts. I have not had a good rain in almost three weeks now. The severe t- storm watch should be dropped and chances of rain reduced to 30% for tonight as the squall line appears tobe in a disarray. Right now anyone SE of Hazelton is getting nothing tonight if these storms keep fizzling out Frustrated drought guy when there's no drought or just frustrated. Monday storms/rain are a lock by golly... 80F/DP 67F Outside, critters being critters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 Cicada killer spotted. The Spruce Goose of Wasps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted August 5, 2023 Author Share Posted August 5, 2023 32 minutes ago, RedSky said: Cicada killer spotted. The Spruce Goose of Wasps. Those things used to terrify me as a kid. Came to learn they are essentially harmless — the males don’t have stingers and the females would rather use them on cicadas than humans. Who knew? 83F/DP 65F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 43 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Those things used to terrify me as a kid. Came to learn they are essentially harmless — the males don’t have stingers and the females would rather use them on cicadas than humans. Who knew? 83F/DP 65F But they can sting you if they feel like it. A 1.5 on the pain scale.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 7 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Frustrated drought guy when there's no drought or just frustrated. Monday storms/rain are a lock by golly... 80F/DP 67F Outside, critters being critters... not frustrated that the drought is somewhat diminished which is good however, I am very frustrated that this Canadian HP dominated weather pattern has been so unpredictable in our forecasting. When you call for severe weather and 60% and nothing happens at all, its like getting virga for a winter storm warning. Many people count on their daily activities for a somewhat accurate prediction. I hate to spend money watering or washing cars and put off those activities until needed. If a 60% chance of rain is called, you can bet I will not be washing the car for example. Hit and miss diurnal t -showers should never be classified as a 60% chance in any forecast. The MCS and squall lines storms are constantly forming over western PA only to diminish in their intensity by dusk before they hit eastern PA. I think only one or two times this entire summer season have I experienced a t storm after sunset. Thats is rare and I am really surprised we are not talking about this type of event more often. When is the last time we had training t-storms with constant lightning at midnight? Take a look at the midwest on the radar every evening in the past week or so. The ring of fire t- storms have been firing up along a line from Iowa and Illinois down to Alabama and the freaking storms stay together all night long. I would love to see that here just a few times during the summer. Enough ranting. Monday forecast, I will believe it when I see it. It is not cast in stone thats for sure for 1-2 in of rain even the PWATS say 2.5 in. I do agree its the best chance of seing a significant rain in awhile. It will be a million dollar rain for corn and soybeans for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Albedoman said: not frustrated that the drought is somewhat diminished which is good however, I am very frustrated that this Canadian HP dominated weather pattern has been so unpredictable in our forecasting. When you call for severe weather and 60% and nothing happens at all, its like getting virga for a winter storm warning. Many people count on their daily activities for a somewhat accurate prediction. I hate to spend money watering or washing cars and put off those activities until needed. If a 60% chance of rain is called, you can bet I will not be washing the car for example. Hit and miss diurnal t -showers should never be classified as a 60% chance in any forecast. The MCS and squall lines storms are constantly forming over western PA only to diminish in their intensity by dusk before they hit eastern PA. I think only one or two times this entire summer season have I experienced a t storm after sunset. Thats is rare and I am really surprised we are not talking about this type of event more often. When is the last time we had training t-storms with constant lightning at midnight? Take a look at the midwest on the radar every evening in the past week or so. The ring of fire t- storms have been firing up along a line from Iowa and Illinois down to Alabama and the freaking storms stay together all night long. I would love to see that here just a few times during the summer. Enough ranting. Monday forecast, I will believe it when I see it. It is not cast in stone thats for sure for 1-2 in of rain even the PWATS say 2.5 in. I do agree its the best chance of seing a significant rain in awhile. It will be a million dollar rain for corn and soybeans for sure. Do what CHMike did and others have done, collect the water that falls for watering at a later date. Some have barrels, my friend has 300gal rectangular tank w/a pump for sprinkling/spraying. I guess you could use it for washing the car as well. No water or sewage cost. 76F/DP 64 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 The thing I do not like about this Spring and Summer Season April to Now is the occurrences of Smoke from Canada. I mean I went down to Kitty Hawk, NC and the sun was blocked out for 2 days due to Wildfire Smoke even there, it's crazy. Get ready for more flooding and possible Severe Weather Monday Afternoon and Night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 36 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: The thing I do not like about this Spring and Summer Season April to Now is the occurrences of Smoke from Canada. I mean I went down to Kitty Hawk, NC and the sun was blocked out for 2 days due to Wildfire Smoke even there, it's crazy. Get ready for more flooding and possible Severe Weather Monday Afternoon and Night! Personally, if it keeps the temps down a nice smokey/fire pit scent in the air I hope it happens every year. Go Canada! Overnight Sunday into Monday then Mon afternoon/evening, maybe a 2 rounder? Drought guy would be mighty happy indeed... 72F/DP 63F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 Keeping a close eye on Monday's severe wx threat for the I-81 and I-78 areas. Some models are extremely bullish on a tornado threat. I will be out chasing if some good supercells get going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 4 hours ago, LVblizzard said: Keeping a close eye on Monday's severe wx threat for the I-81 and I-78 areas. Some models are extremely bullish on a tornado threat. I will be out chasing if some good supercells get going. Yea that is a pretty potent low passing by to our northwest. Rapidly moving lines of thunderstorms sw to ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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