Birds~69 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 46 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Someone wake up RedSky...stuff. 75F/DP 65F Cancel.Fail. Shrunken, took a side road and missed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Cancel.Fail. Shrunken, took a side road and missed... enough to get my deck wet. Hopefully more after midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 35 minutes ago, Albedoman said: enough to get my deck wet. Hopefully more after midnight Two rounds in the next 24hrs. Early and late afternoon/evening, sun in the middle. Should be good... 73F/DP 63F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 State College radar...quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 I am going to emphatically state tonight and please mark this post. The Canadian wild fires have emitted so much smoke now in the northern hemisphere that this winter in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will exhibit record cold snaps and perhaps above average snowfall for some areas. The dominating HP over southern Canada which is preventing the Bermuda High from taking over this summer will relax every now and then during the summer but will continue its dominance over our weather patterns until the pattern reloads with el nino pattern becoming dominate. in mid to late winter. Below average monthly temps will continue into the foreseeable future. As the el nino returns with an easterly pattern, nor'easters will become the talk of the town in December. This year reminds me a lot of 2002 winter season coming off a major a drought into an developing el nino pattern. we had some good nor'easters that year. The smoke will help keep temp down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 9 minutes ago, Albedoman said: I am going to emphatically state tonight and please mark this post. The Canadian wild fires have emitted so much smoke now in the northern hemisphere that this winter in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will exhibit record cold snaps and perhaps above average snowfall for some areas. The dominating HP over southern Canada which is preventing the Bermuda High from taking over this summer will relax every now and then during the summer but will continue its dominance over our weather patterns until the pattern reloads with el nino pattern becoming dominate. in mid to late winter. Below average monthly temps will continue into the foreseeable future. As the el nino returns with an easterly pattern, nor'easters will become the talk of the town in December. This year reminds me a lot of 2002 winter season coming off a major a drought into an developing el nino pattern. we had some good nor'easters that year. The smoke will help keep temp down. Umm I don't disagree with your ideas about the wild fires it appears to be blocking out the sun keeping it cooler albeit smokey. However, I think we barely had any snow less than 5" back in 2002 down here in SE PA if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 37 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Umm I don't disagree with your ideas about the wild fires it appears to be blocking out the sun keeping it cooler albeit smokey. However, I think we barely had any snow less than 5" back in 2002 down here in SE PA if I recall correctly. its the winter of 2003 with presidents day noreaster plus others in December of 2002 that I am talking about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 8 hours ago, Albedoman said: I am going to emphatically state tonight and please mark this post. The Canadian wild fires have emitted so much smoke now in the northern hemisphere that this winter in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will exhibit record cold snaps and perhaps above average snowfall for some areas. The dominating HP over southern Canada which is preventing the Bermuda High from taking over this summer will relax every now and then during the summer but will continue its dominance over our weather patterns until the pattern reloads with el nino pattern becoming dominate. in mid to late winter. Below average monthly temps will continue into the foreseeable future. As the el nino returns with an easterly pattern, nor'easters will become the talk of the town in December. This year reminds me a lot of 2002 winter season coming off a major a drought into an developing el nino pattern. we had some good nor'easters that year. The smoke will help keep temp down. Bold statement, for sure. I'm still waiting to see if the climatological fallout from that Hunga Tonga eruption in December 2021 will cause a measurable effect in northern hemispheric weather over the course of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 WTF is wrong with forecasting these days. As of 9pm last night our local forecast was wall-to-wall rain all day today, and before that, on Friday, it was forecasted to be rainy all weekend. We got a passing shower last night around midnight that dropped a whopping .01". Right now at 8am it's sunny with some clouds, and the nearest rain on radar is in western PA. Forecasting with any accuracy on a day-to-day basis with regular weather (barring large-scale events, like tropical storms) seems to be completely out to lunch. I don't think our current models are calibrated to deal with the current status of our climate. Maybe it's always been this way and I'm just now noticing it, but I don't think so. I've been an avid weather nerd for over a decade and this whole thing just seems off to me somehow. Yeah I may kvetch about individual storm cells missing my back yard on the regular, but it seems to me that day-to-day predictability has gone down the tubes in recent years. I'm genuinely curious if any of our local mets on here have any thoughts regarding this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 1 hour ago, CoolHandMike said: Bold statement, for sure. I'm still waiting to see if the climatological fallout from that Hunga Tonga eruption in December 2021 will cause a measurable effect in northern hemispheric weather over the course of the year. CoolhandMIke you are spot on with above statement. That is another reason why I believe you and I are right in our thinking and why I made such a bold statement. Others will be making such statement soon in the media. The combination of significant volcanic ash and dust dispersal, wild fire smoke and a constant three years of a la nina pattern cannot be ignored. I distinctly remember the Mt Pinatubo eruption(as I am physical geographer and geologist) in 1991 and what happened the following years from the result of the ash ejected into the stratosphere. The winter of 93-94 was cold and wintry that's for sure for our area. The effects of the 1991 eruption were felt worldwide. The volcano ejected more particulate into the stratosphere than any eruption since Krakatoa in 1883. Over the following months, the aerosols formed a global layer of sulfuric acid haze. Global temperatures dropped by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) in the years 1991–1993,[9] and ozone depletion temporarily saw a substantial increase. The climatic results took two years from Mt Pinatubo in the southern hemisphere to reach the northern hemisphere weather and wind patterns. I also believe the effects of the Hunga Tonga eruption will arrive this winter since it is further from the northern hemisphere than is Mt Pinatubo and by January, we will see clear evidence of how the combination of ash, smoke and dust effect our local climate. To many idiotic climate activists rely on greenhouse gasses to make wild predictions when the real issue is dust, smoke and ash being ejected into our atmosphere. You all saw first hand what wildfire smoke can do to our atmosphere in our region by bringing down temps the last few weeks. Now imagine that higher up in the atmosphere with ash and dust from volcanoes too. These greenhouse climate people need to go back to school and learn about the albedo effect in our atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 34 minutes ago, Albedoman said: CoolhandMIke you are spot on with above statement. That is another reason why I believe you and I are right in our thinking and why I made such a bold statement. Others will be making such statement soon in the media. The combination of significant volcanic ash and dust dispersal, wild fire smoke and a constant three years of a la nina pattern cannot be ignored. I distinctly remember the Mt Pinatubo eruption(as I am physical geographer and geologist) in 1991 and what happened the following years from the result of the ash ejected into the stratosphere. The winter of 93-94 was cold and wintry that's for sure for our area. The effects of the 1991 eruption were felt worldwide. The volcano ejected more particulate into the stratosphere than any eruption since Krakatoa in 1883. Over the following months, the aerosols formed a global layer of sulfuric acid haze. Global temperatures dropped by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) in the years 1991–1993,[9] and ozone depletion temporarily saw a substantial increase. The climatic results took two years from Mt Pinatubo in the southern hemisphere to reach the northern hemisphere weather and wind patterns. I also believe the effects of the Hunga Tonga eruption will arrive this winter since it is further from the northern hemisphere than is Mt Pinatubo and by January, we will see clear evidence of how the combination of ash, smoke and dust effect our local climate. To many idiotic climate activists rely on greenhouse gasses to make wild predictions when the real issue is dust, smoke and ash being ejected into our atmosphere. You all saw first hand what wildfire smoke can do to our atmosphere in our region by bringing down temps the last few weeks. Now imagine that higher up in the atmosphere with ash and dust from volcanoes too. These greenhouse climate people need to go back to school and learn about the albedo effect in our atmosphere. Don't forget to factor this in though - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/june-2023-enso-update-el-niño-here Depending on how strong the El Nino gets may determine what the stj does with the potential for endless hopes and dreams in here for "phasing". As an obs - I did hit 86 again yesterday and had a warm "low" of 72 this morning. The dps briefly dropped to the low 60s yesterday but it appears the warm front might be on the move, and I am currently partly sunny and 81, with dp 75. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Blob headed straight this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Current temp 83/DP 73/RH 73% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Blob is fading away it must be too humid and oppressive for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted July 2, 2023 Author Share Posted July 2, 2023 Mowing complete The atmosphere can blob its little heart out now. 84F/DP 73F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Few hundredths of an inch and it stoked up the sauna conditions big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 21 minutes ago, RedSky said: Few hundredths of an inch and it stoked up the sauna conditions big time That's what I'm hoping for w/this little blob. Quick shower then sun to juice things up even more... 85F/DP 73F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Looking decent for a little something then hopefully some sun... 85F/DP 74F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted July 2, 2023 Author Share Posted July 2, 2023 Friggin’ old folk showing off by walking around in their sweaters, fleeces and hoodies on a day like this while the rest of us sweat off our unmentionables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Current temp 90/DP 74/RH 60% Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 3 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Looking decent for a little something then hopefully some sun... 85F/DP 74F Missed me. I don't think it matters w/a DP of 75F. Super juicy out there... 86F/DP 75F *Phils in a rain delay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Couple TORs (funnel cloud spotting) up to the N/W and ST Watches up for the CWA. Quote Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 435 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 430 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2023 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS PAC001-011-017-025-029-041-043-045-071-075-077-089-091-095-101- 107-133-030300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0435.230702T2030Z-230703T0300Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BERKS BUCKS CARBON CHESTER CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN DELAWARE LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH MONROE MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON PHILADELPHIA SCHUYLKILL YORK $$ Quote Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 435 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 430 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2023 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-041- 030300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0435.230702T2030Z-230703T0300Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN SALEM SOMERSET WARREN $$ Quote Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 435 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 430 PM EDT SUN JUL 2 2023 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS DEC001-003-005-030300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0435.230702T2030Z-230703T0300Z/ DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX $$ Currently 87 with dp 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Tornado warning near Allentown...near drought guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Another one....I'm jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 TOR issued near Reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 One north and one south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Another TOR lofted including Northern Montco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 ^Yep, one more shift east and I'm in it... 85F/DP 74F Distant thunder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVLion77 Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 Like last weekend’s misses in my sw corner of lehigh county, missed this storm completely! Statistically this becoming improbable.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted July 2, 2023 Share Posted July 2, 2023 as an official spotter for 30 years, I saw very little rotation with the tornado warned t -storm that is quickly fading. In fact, just enough sprinkles was the only thing produced in Lower Macungie with a brief downdraft as the storm was clearly localized (rain across the street but not at your house episode). Scud clouds gave the appearance of some rotation at the base of the storm. Major disappointment with the rainfall. Sprinkles and that was it. I am sure someone in Fogelsville and western Allentown got a quick downpour of an .25 in. or little more as we really need training t- storms. 70 percent chance of rainfall in the forecast has been a real misnomer as the areal coverage has been more like 30% or less. I see better chances of afternoon t storms in TN than I have seen here with 70-80% chances being predicted. The models absolutely suck in a Canada in dominated high pressure pattern. If I was Mt Holly, I would predict nothing more than 30% of rain in the forecast until the pattern changes or we get a cold front that means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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