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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2023 OBS Thread


JTA66
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1 hour ago, LVLion77 said:

A major forecast bust thus far in the Lehigh Valley - 0.14 thus far today on my gauge.


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this is the biggest bust of the year IMHO. We were supposed to get 1.5 in of rain by midnight. I got .19" in my gauge in Macungie. This was not even close to what was forecasted. Tonights radar looks absolutely pathetic. The 60- 80% chance of heavy rain should have been forecasted to 20-30%. Philly metro area is getting dumped on the last two weeks, high and dry north of the South Mtn range. I expect nothing more than hit and miss showers the next five days. This pesky low- shortwave is not a drought buster- just a lawn greener. many  residential wells in the LV and toward Harrisburg will be be going dry in the next few weeks.  A drought warning and emergency should be issued by PADEP by Tuesday if we do NOT get some really significant rains this weekend and I mean real back to back gully washers. The sun did not come out at all today and without the convective nature with the sun daytime heating, we are destined to light rain showers and drizzle for the next five days.

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Sun has popped out here but wonder if it might result in some self-destruct tendencies if it destabilizes this already-muggy atmosphere.

I picked up a couple hundredths more rain this morning for a total of 0.08" for the day and 2.08 over the past 2 days.

After a low of 68 earlier, currently have changeable skies with clouds and sun and 73, with dp 72.

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We have picked up 0.64" of rain since yesterday with 0.03" since midnight here in East Nantmeal. Humdity has really ramped up since yesterday - current dew point is 70 degrees which is uncomfortable. More rain is currently moving in from the west and we could see a couple more rounds of showers and t-storms during the rest of the day today. Our unsettled and rainy pattern continues for the upcoming week the least wet day looks like tomorrow. Tomorrow looks like the only chance of an above normal temp day before we head back to below normal temps for the rest of the week.
Records for today: High 96 (1894) / Low 41 (1992) / Rain 3.00" (1969)

image.png.cc3e91b372d407625a132afad5479962.png

 

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this is the biggest bust of the year IMHO. We were supposed to get 1.5 in of rain by midnight. I got .19" in my gauge in Macungie. This was not even close to what was forecasted. Tonights radar looks absolutely pathetic. The 60- 80% chance of heavy rain should have been forecasted to 20-30%. Philly metro area is getting dumped on the last two weeks, high and dry north of the South Mtn range. I expect nothing more than hit and miss showers the next five days. This pesky low- shortwave is not a drought buster- just a lawn greener. many  residential wells in the LV and toward Harrisburg will be be going dry in the next few weeks.  A drought warning and emergency should be issued by PADEP by Tuesday if we do NOT get some really significant rains this weekend and I mean real back to back gully washers. The sun did not come out at all today and without the convective nature with the sun daytime heating, we are destined to light rain showers and drizzle for the next five days.

Another bust today in my area (close to you.) A t-storm hit the northeast part of the LV but just minimal showers elsewhere.


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1 hour ago, LVLion77 said:


Another bust today in my area (close to you.) A t-storm hit the northeast part of the LV but just minimal showers elsewhere.


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the sun cam out but every cotton picking t-cell was northeast of the LV into the Poconos or were SE near Philly. I say give it up Mt Holly. I have had only one t storm in three months at my house and it was only 20 minutes long- back in April. The lid is on for convectivity over the LV in the foreseeable future.  These .15 rain showers at night are keeping the lawns green but the Little Lehigh streamflow in my backyard is the lowest I have seen in over 20 years. You cannot keep ignoring hydraulic stream flows in your discussions.

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Worcester, PA.  My 7 days rain total Sunday thru Saturday is .48".   Still an hour and a half to go, but looks like nothing else coming.  An area on radar looks like it is weakening and also probaly miss to the north anyway.  Kind of the story of hit and miss showers and storms (as told by a miss participant).     2.9" for the month. Grass is not that bad as the numerous days of clouds helped with less drying out.

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the sun cam out but every cotton picking t-cell was northeast of the LV into the Poconos or were SE near Philly. I say give it up Mt Holly. I have had only one t storm in three months at my house and it was only 20 minutes long- back in April. The lid is on for convectivity over the LV in the foreseeable future.  These .15 rain showers at night are keeping the lawns green but the Little Lehigh streamflow in my backyard is the lowest I have seen in over 20 years. You cannot keep ignoring hydraulic stream flows in your discussions.

0.20 in my gauge for the week.


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wow. Forecast for 1-2 in of training thundershowers Monday night. Hey, Mt Holly, I am ready for another bust.

 

I guess they believe what the Euro and CMC  has been spitting out. The NAM/RGEM  is however  getting close to what the the globals are telling them but we have burned too many times in the past 90 days on even SR model accuracy.

 

The one thing I am ecstatic about is the fact this morning is the first morning in 30+ days that the sun was out after 7am  with absolutely no smoke/haze  evidence in the air after the early morning fog burned off-. Crystal blue skies at 8 am . Its nice to breathe again

 

 

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1 hour ago, Albedoman said:

wow. Forecast for 1-2 in of training thundershowers Monday night. Hey, Mt Holly, I am ready for another bust.

 

I guess they believe what the Euro and CMC  has been spitting out. The NAM/RGEM  is however  getting close to what the the globals are telling them but we have burned too many times in the past 90 days on even SR model accuracy.

 

The one thing I am ecstatic about is the fact this morning is the first morning in 30+ days that the sun was out after 7am  with absolutely no smoke/haze  evidence in the air after the early morning fog burned off-. Crystal blue skies at 8 am . Its nice to breathe again

 

 

Mt. Holly also has the responsibility to protect against the other outcome too. Something kicks up and drops 3-4 and then someone gets a surprise flash flood... thats a problem. 

Try not to spoil the weather-- its a nice day out and my yard is plenty damp this morning.  Its going to take a bit for the La Nina enduced drought to attenuate. Forestry service still has fire risk set at high or extreme. 

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