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June 2023 General Discussion


Spartman
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10 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Here in the boreal woods of the north it's very swampy, even during drier times.  On my property alone there's three separate swamps with one being right close to the house.  It's always buggy until about mid-august.  Some years are just worse than others.

High of 83 yesterday and looking like a carbon copy today.  Breeze will help.

My wife and I spent the past few days hiking in the UP, taking a self-made waterfall tour. I can vouch for Amazonian-type insects. Also, the waterfalls were not as exciting as what they would be with a little more water to work with.

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2 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

Are you an arborist?

Nope, just an all out nerd on anything earth science/natural world based. I was living in Illinois when the EAB decimated the ash population, and did extensive research on the subject since my childhood backyard was nothing but ash trees. I’ve watched the cycle begin to repeat itself up here in MN the past several years. 

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15 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

Never thought I'd have a summer here with more smoke than storms.

While there may be a touch of haze and somewhat degraded AQI in Wisconsin and northern Illinois, this looks like a legitimate orange sky, downright hazardous air smokemaggedon for the Arrowhead of Minnesota, and perhaps the UP of Michigan later on.
 

Several large fires in western Ontario not far from the international border with expected explosive fire behavior on Friday afternoon pouring smoke right over the border. I know they don’t issue PDS air quality advisories, but this looks like a particularly dangerous situation. Hazardous travel conditions also possible with poor visibility in dense smoke and haze.

 

97F18209-162C-43AA-A679-2F0229778789.png.df7232e392eba3f7b0cb3401e28a49df.png

 

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Not sure who to believe. The HRRR continues to model a high-end smoke plume over the northlands, but the I can find no mention of smoke in any NWS forecasts. The concentrations being depicted seem capable of changing the color of the sky to shades of yellow, orange or red, completely blocking the sun, reducing visibility to less than one mile, and resulting in very unhealthy to downright hazardous air quality. For the UP of Michigan, this is a long duration of some of the most dense smoke east of the Mississippi I have ever seen on the HRRR, and yet there is no mention of smoke or haze in the forecast.

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12 hours ago, IWXwx said:

My wife and I spent the past few days hiking in the UP, taking a self-made waterfall tour. I can vouch for Amazonian-type insects. Also, the waterfalls were not as exciting as what they would be with a little more water to work with.

Nice.  What area did you visit?  Too bad streams and rivers are entering their seasonal lows, especially with the dry stretch.  Come back in early Autumn.

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3 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

Weird Rex block.

I notice some old smoke drifting back in from the southeast!  It air was actually cleaner under the ridge yesterday.  Shit got ingested by the cutoff and just sat in place for days.  Weird how smoke can drift in from pretty much any direction.

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has anyone been watching the possible ohio valley-ish event for Sunday & Monday? 15% risk on the spc day4 for central & southern IN, and Sunday doesn't have any mention on the spc forecast but based off of the latest GFS runs looks like there will be a decent amount of CAPE and moisture in sw OH, just maybe lacking shear. 

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22 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Nice.  What area did you visit?  Too bad streams and rivers are entering their seasonal lows, especially with the dry stretch.  Come back in early Autumn.

We hit most of the falls east of Marquette. The Rock River area, around Munising, the Pictured Rock lakeshore area, including a few that doesn't show up on a Google search.  I wanted to go west, but we had limited time.  I would like to go back in the fall, as you said, and hit some falls farther west and up your way.

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On 6/20/2023 at 11:19 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

Looks like there may be a pretty solid plume of smoke, including concentrated surface smoke, on Thursday extending from northern Michigan into the Chicagoland area and southern Wisconsin. Potential exists for degraded air quality.

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As expected, saw some light smoke and haze in northern Michigan yesterday, which worked its way over to parts Wisconsin and Illinois overnight. Nothing too crazy, but visibilities have been reduced to 4-6 miles, with less than ideal air quality.

The HRRR is indicating the potential for a couple more impactful intrusions of Canadian wildfire smoke. Some denser plumes of smoke are expected to work into northern Minnesota and the upper peninsula of Michigan, and perhaps get drawn south around the circulation of an area of low pressure into the Dakotas and possibly parts of Nebraska and Iowa by Sunday.

At the same time, a MASSIVE pall of dense surface smoke is forecast to spread across much of Ontario and Quebec. This makes NYC's smokemageddon look weak. Not sure where this smoke pall will travel, but places in the Great Lakes and northeastern US should keep an eye on its path.

image.thumb.png.e5699330a7f06aef6fac796c2a5226f1.png

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Visible satellite shows the light haze over the Midwest, as well as the suffocating, dense pall of smoke over eastern Canada. Will be interesting to see where this goes. Intense fire behavior is expected over the next couple of afternoons, which will result in additional large emissions of smoke and possible pyrocumulus and pyrocumulonimbus activity. Can also see some of the smoke plumes in western Ontario which are expected to spread smoke into the Upper Midwest later today and into the weekend.

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On 6/21/2023 at 4:18 PM, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Hopefully it’s not lots of lower trunk growth, that could be a sign of emerald ash borer infection. 
 

91 here this afternoon. 8th 90 of the year. 

All on top, no borer signs thankfully.

Good chance of shwrs/stms this weekend could net up to 2-3" of rain for some around here. Much needed, and very welcome. 

Temps got rather hot away from the lake yesterday. 88 at the TH arpt, but only 71 at the shoreline.

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5 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

As expected, saw some light smoke and haze in northern Michigan yesterday, which worked its way over to parts Wisconsin and Illinois overnight. Nothing too crazy, but visibilities have been reduced to 4-6 miles, with less than ideal air quality.

The HRRR is indicating the potential for a couple more impactful intrusions of Canadian wildfire smoke. Some denser plumes of smoke are expected to work into northern Minnesota and the upper peninsula of Michigan, and perhaps get drawn south around the circulation of an area of low pressure into the Dakotas and possibly parts of Nebraska and Iowa by Sunday.

At the same time, a MASSIVE pall of dense surface smoke is forecast to spread across much of Ontario and Quebec. This makes NYC's smokemageddon look weak. Not sure where this smoke pall will travel, but places in the Great Lakes and northeastern US should keep an eye on its path.

image.thumb.png.e5699330a7f06aef6fac796c2a5226f1.png

Looking at this animation of aerosol optical depth, it looks like some of this might end up getting caught in the circulation of the low pressure system moving through and ultimately advect southwestward over Wisconsin and Ilinois by Tuesday. Obviously a long way out, but perhaps something to watch out for next week. Also, it's not clear how dense the concentrations of smoke will be as a lot of it will get pushed eastward out to sea before the low starts to take shape.

https://twitter.com/m_parrington/status/1672232383842492419?s=20

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2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Dews have mixed down below 45 in MLI with yet another 90+ day in the bag.  Insanely low dews for late June.

Crazy as the dew points here have been in the mid-60s today.  It has rained since ~9AM this morning (mostly light but I will take it :) ).

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Had the warmest low of the year so far at 19C/66F. Overcast yet suppose to have some sun later on with a chance of storms (yeah right). I had three strikes detected yesterday but I heard no thunder. The heavy stuff was to my west so only got 1.2mm. For the first time this summer its showing chance of strong t-storms tomorrow. 35 mm of rain for the period (not buying that but 20mm I can see).

I need that sun to poke out soon again, yesterday was too dark.

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