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June Discobs 2023


George BM
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21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

TDCA radar showing some heavier cells trying to organize in northern Virginia. Even a few CGs detected near Tappahannock ASOS. Looks like this might be the activity that some of the CAMs were advertising for early this afternoon.

Every shower that’s been on a decent trajectory for my backyard has dried up to drizzle so far this morning, but I’ll keep my fingers crossed.

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10 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Not saying it will be anything close to (it won't be) this event - but the radar at this moment reminds me a bit of June 2006...downpours lining up on a SSW-->NNE trajectory. 

I just pulled up the radar from June 26, 2006 - nowhere near as widespread (I figured) but again - it's a loose match.

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Getting a shower moving through at the moment. Heavier than radar would indicate, so I imagine the cells further south and east will be productive. Looks like this will be a 270 and east event. I’ll be ready for a return to warmer weather after today.

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Get out of my head.

Thinking like you is either a really good sign (weather smarts) or a really bad sign (total weather cynic). 

It's definitely not as prolific as June 2006 - but just how the "band" of precip is moving - almost the anniversary too! 

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12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Thinking like you is either a really good sign (weather smarts) or a really bad sign (total weather cynic). 

It's definitely not as prolific as June 2006 - but just how the "band" of precip is moving - almost the anniversary too! 

Why not both? I still think most of this slides to the east and we get missed again west of the Bay.

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14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Thinking like you is either a really good sign (weather smarts) or a really bad sign (total weather cynic). 

It's definitely not as prolific as June 2006 - but just how the "band" of precip is moving - almost the anniversary too! 

I remember June 2006 as multiple rounds of MCS-like storms.  Is my memory failing me?  Whenever I see a N/S oriented line that start to train, I immediately think of TD Lee.

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9 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Radar looks a bit less promising for those 95 and west and perhaps even bay and west at the moment. A lot of that stuff in VA seems headed for the bay and eastern shore.

I firmly believe that CAMs and mid range guidance have a south and west bias for rainfall maximums in this part of the country.

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37 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I firmly believe that CAMs and mid range guidance have a south and west bias for rainfall maximums in this part of the country.

This system is getting a little too nickel and dime for my taste.  3 days of un-nice weather for a total of an inch maybe here.  It was needed, but I'm ready to turn the page and get some warmer weather/storms.  We're not gonna do well in the precip department with temps in the 60s and 70s.  That's not our style this time of year.  We're much better at 80s/90s, humidity, and isolated aternoon/evening gully washers.

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9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like after this round that's it for today. CAMs went really quiet for late this afternoon and evening.

Yeah, this has been terrible. Big bust on the rain amounts but day after day of cool, drizzly type weather. Kinda the worst-case scenario.

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6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Don’t need a fixed radar here. This has been disappointing to say the least.

 

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah, this has been terrible. Big bust on the rain amounts but day after day of cool, drizzly type weather. Kinda the worst-case scenario.

Couple of days ago, WPC had 72 hour QPF forecast of close to 3" for I-95. Too far west once again.

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