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June Discobs 2023


George BM
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4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Which color are you considering heavy? The light purple is more like Rt 7 and the toll road, but yeah you maryland clods look to get shafted a bit if this graphic comes close to verifying. 

From my experience, anything below 1.5" rarely causes problems unless it comes down quick.

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Wednesday is the synoptic rain, but it looks to go more convective on Thursday and beyond.   With PW values progged to exceed 2" for multiple days, it certainly seems like at least isolated instances of high QPF totals and flash flooding will occur, even if the areal-averaged QPF amounts don't suggest the threat.

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

Wednesday is the synoptic rain, but it looks to go more convective on Thursday and beyond.   With PW values progged to exceed 2" for multiple days, it certainly seems like at least isolated instances of high QPF totals and flash flooding will occur, even if the areal-averaged QPF amounts don't suggest the threat.

I hope so. The meso guidance has really dried up for Maryland. HRRR now has less than half an inch for the metros through 18z Thursday. 

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                                                                                                                                                                        :wub:

Day 11 image not available

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25 minutes ago, CAPE said:

                                                                                                                                                                        :wub:

Day 11 image not available

From WPCs mouth to God's ear.

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15 hours ago, Lucketts Life said:

Just south of Point Of Rocks and we received well over an inch. Multiple downpours, thunder/lightning over a 2 hour period. 

Yeah Point of Rocks and Adamstown got slammed. I am just up Ballenger Creek pike near the traffic circle and kept checking radar to see if it was moving up here. Lightning all to the SE for quite awhile. Took a bit of time to move but where I live finally it moved up. Ended up with just over .50”. 

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25 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Concur with radar not matching ground truth. Prob extrapolated from other radar sites since lwx is down

I'm mainly using TIAD. Seems the feed from TBWI has been thready at best the last few weeks - lots of downtime. TDCA seems to miss some stuff over me - and I wonder if it's because it's a lower elevation versus areas to the west. 

Can the KLWX radar maintenance proceed even during rain? 

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12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I'm mainly using TIAD. Seems the feed from TBWI has been thready at best the last few weeks - lots of downtime. TDCA seems to miss some stuff over me - and I wonder if it's because it's a lower elevation versus areas to the west. 

Can the KLWX radar maintenance proceed even during rain? 

From what I've been told, there's prework inside the dome that can be done with this kind of repair. Eventually the ball will have to be taken off, but you can do a decent amount of prep.

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49 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

From what I've been told, there's prework inside the dome that can be done with this kind of repair. Eventually the ball will have to be taken off, but you can do a decent amount of prep.

It figures that we start to see a potential uptick in severe potential in the coming days to next week while the LWX radar is down...Thanks for the answer! 

I also feel like they tend to work very fast on these - NWS ROC seems to underpromise and overdeliver at least in my experience with repair timelines. I'm guessing we could see it back in service early if the weather cooperates. 

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6 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

This is has complete bust written all over it out here. Everything is sliding up east of the blue ridge.

My forecast calls for low chance of showers today and the real stuff arrives this evening. So, yeah, this is either bonus rain or the beginning of a bust!

Personally, I’m keeping my expectations lower than some of the wetter predictions I’ve seen, but I’ll be disappointed if I don’t get more than an inch the next 48 hours.

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16 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

It figures that we start to see a potential uptick in severe potential in the coming days to next week while the LWX radar is down...Thanks for the answer! 

I also feel like they tend to work very fast on these - NWS ROC seems to underpromise and overdeliver at least in my experience with repair timelines. I'm guessing we could see it back in service early if the weather cooperates. 

Yes. The ROC staff are amazing. Not sure if I mentioned this, but I was able to visit SPC, WFO Norman, and OK Mesonet back in April. While there, I spoke with a staff member who collaborated with ROC personnel during some KOUN maintenance. It's amazing how efficient they are. It's like a NASA checklist and they don't show up unless they have all of the equipment already. No waiting for parts to arrive.

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