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June Discobs 2023


George BM
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Lol watching it rain all around stephens city.  Rain shield still remains, strong as ever.  It's great to be back.

The north Frederick rain shield is a force right now as well. Got light rained on while playing basketball, but nothing to write home about, and can see some good stuff to the sw of my locale. Dews have certainly risen, though. Finally feels like summer outside.
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1 minute ago, Mrs.J said:

I am sitting just to the East of that mass of rain up here. Painful to watch it on radar and be so close. 

Hearing some thunder in the distance and getting clipped again here by some moderate downpours.  Looks like there's a potential flush hit from those cells to the south.  We'll see if they hold.

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On 6/19/2023 at 9:57 PM, Mrs.J said:
Finally it moved up from Adamstown. Pouring here with lightning. 


Yea this was completely unexpected. Seeing over 1” in some of the gauges near point of rocks. Already seeing 1/3”+ at nearby gauges here. Lightning to the west as well. Good stuff. Hopefully the whole area can cash in on this new pattern.

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Snippet from Mount Holly discussing the pattern evolution and the chances for (heavier) rain for the period beyond the next few days-

The flow throughout much of the atmosphere will become well-aligned from the south, and remain that way for much of the long term forecast period. Cut- off low pressure over the Southeast US will only slowly lift northward toward the Great Lakes, then drift eastward across our region over the weekend. Meanwhile, longer range model guidance is tentatively in good agreement of another fairly strong upper-level trough ejecting eastward from the northern Rockies toward the Great Lakes early next week. That system may amplify as it settles into the long wave trough set up along the East Coast, reinforcing warm, moist southerly flow across our region. The airmass from Friday through the weekend looks quite convective, and showers/t-storms will tend to be enhanced with daytime heating, particularly if there is any sunshine. While it will not rain all the time, and any one day through this period does not look anomalously moist for June, the pattern will be capable of producing heavy rain, particularly with any training convection or when the flow aloft weakens. Despite the drought in some parts of our region, flooding may become an issue particularly next week if this pattern comes to fruition and the ground becomes more saturated.

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I won't believe any of these rain rumors until it happens.  That crap last night was the epitome of this dust bowl nightmare - big heavy cluster of storms moving north right towards the Central MD Desert then veered NW just in time for storms to train just a few miles west for hours.  I don't care how rainy the models look.  Everything splits around or misses until it doesn't

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5 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

I won't believe any of these rain rumors until it happens.  That crap last night was the epitome of this dust bowl nightmare - big heavy cluster of storms moving north right towards the Central MD Desert then veered NW just in time for storms to train just a few miles west for hours.  I don't care how rainy the models look.  Everything splits around or misses until it doesn't

The models had it mostly accurate with the precip being mostly confined to the mountains.  It ended up being a little further east than modeled, but tomorrow's round is basically region-wide.  I agree, though...it doesn't start until it starts.

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