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June Discobs 2023


George BM
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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Monday into Monday night still looks good for showers and a few t-storms on guidance. Who cares if more rain falls well SW/NE, as there is a high probability for some widespread rains through our region. A half inch to an inch is a major win at this point. We beggars.

Yes, I am a beggar. 

Take what we can at this point.   

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Feels like things have gotten worse again in the last 90 based on visibility out my window in Courthouse.

This has to be the current front runner for Weather Event of the Year (WEY) in these parts, right? Decent duration, high unusuality score, top story everywhere….

edit: maybe the darkness is more this than the smoke

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16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Feels like things have gotten worse again in the last 90 based on visibility out my window in Courthouse.

This has to be the current front runner for Weather Event of the Year (WEY) in these parts, right? Decent duration, high unusuality score, top story everywhere….

edit: maybe the darkness is more this than the smoke
 

Actually had a few sprinkles from that.  Problem is that the air quality is worse on the east side and it is moving west.

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51 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Feels like things have gotten worse again in the last 90 based on visibility out my window in Courthouse.

This has to be the current front runner for Weather Event of the Year (WEY) in these parts, right? Decent duration, high unusuality score, top story everywhere….

edit: maybe the darkness is more this than the smoke
 

I'd say so. Even if there was some competition (which I can't think of, 2023 has to be the most boring year in recent memory up to this point), this is historically noxious air. (Even the fleeting Xmas cold wave was 2022.) Shame that's it coincided with such (otherwise) conventionally beautiful weather. 

This isn't exactly fun, but I'll probably remember it more than some 4-8" snowstorms (not that those occur anymore around here.) Kind of like the March 2018 long-term wind event: just very unique. 

 

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6 hours ago, high risk said:

Consistent with reports in this thread, low-level smoke concentrations are dropping in areas north and northwest of DC.   Still lousy air but some modest improvement:

image.thumb.png.4f034c96ba4339f0a981aa67a8b99f5f.png

 

 The HRRR smoke products have been consistently showing this scenario.    Here is the latest run's forecast for low-level smoke later this afternoon.

image.png.5fdbdf694590c5e99e612b56752dfb85.png

  Tomorrow, unfortunately, looks worse again:

image.png.a13d6183920dde5be6f498497b83698c.png

 

 

 

 

 

An MSS (mesoscale smoke system)? I mean, it's not convection, but it's horizontal dimension seems > 50 miles, and it sure is persistent. 

 

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3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Feels like things have gotten worse again in the last 90 based on visibility out my window in Courthouse.

This has to be the current front runner for Weather Event of the Year (WEY) in these parts, right? Decent duration, high unusuality score, top story everywhere….

edit: maybe the darkness is more this than the smoke
 

just walked back to the Metro from a work dinner downtown (around 730), and it was really bad.  Put my mask on.

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37 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Unless we can get some backend smoke, this event looks to be over. Hope everyone enjoyed theirJebwalk in the haze.

  Curious as to why you would say that.    HRRR has been pretty consistently showing some pretty substantial low-level smoke concentrations persisting through tomorrow.     00Z cycle this evening 21h forecast valid later Friday afternoon:

 

image.png.c82ceb1e68bfc3b1cd6fc29ec607a776.png

 

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36 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Noticeably clearer for first time all week, no acrid stench outside either. Tempt got down to 55 and now on rebound...AQI at nearby Mt. Vernon is 97. Looks like things will improve a bit today on HRRR:  https://hwp-viz.gsd.esrl.noaa.gov/smoke/index.html

Maybe I'm missing something but it looks pretty bad to me and even looks bad tomorrow now.

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9 hours ago, high risk said:

  Curious as to why you would say that.    HRRR has been pretty consistently showing some pretty substantial low-level smoke concentrations persisting through tomorrow.     00Z cycle this evening 21h forecast valid later Friday afternoon:

 

image.png.c82ceb1e68bfc3b1cd6fc29ec607a776.png

 

        So far, yesterday's HRRR smoke output does not not appear to have a good handle on today.    

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9 hours ago, high risk said:

  Curious as to why you would say that.    HRRR has been pretty consistently showing some pretty substantial low-level smoke concentrations persisting through tomorrow.     00Z cycle this evening 21h forecast valid later Friday afternoon:

Was just trying to make a joke about snow. 

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