SouthCoastMA Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 missing out on most of this rain to my east..similar to a few days ago. though looks like it's starting to fill in to my sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Modfan2 said: 0.01 since yesterday, missed heavy rain just to my SE this morning (congrats Ginxy!) .13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Jerry, was in your hood last evening. Ate at a French place called La Voile. Excellent food. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 Is Nashua / Salem NH area looking dry thru noon . HRRR says storms go boom next hour but looking for some help on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We lamb shoulder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Is Nashua / Salem NH area looking dry thru noon . HRRR says storms go boom next hour but looking for some help on that I’d say showers develop after 10ish? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 Mixed look for the end of the week. Warmer but I wouldn’t go high end yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 Today's a head scratcher as far as rain distribution. I'm fighting off the notion that this was over-blown by the guidance. Seeing the 06z NAM putting down 2+" over Boston ... like, AT that exact point and nowhere else, and then knowing the 00z was much more evenly distributed... that random distribution gam really hearkens as the models being physically over sensitive - similar to why April coastals to that. They tend to be over-selling mid range coastals, but when push comes to shove there's isn't enough baroclinic gradients in the low levels - much of the cyclone remains aloft. On the other hand ... this isn't in a hurry to leave, and when/if some of the convective nature of this kicks in over the next 12 hours ... rain balls are likely be moving across radar at the blinding speed of cells reaching out to one another under a microscope ... just unloading. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 39 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Mixed look for the end of the week. Warmer but I wouldn’t go high end yet I'm personally taking a blend of the 00z Euro with the 06z GFS for general layout, and sans any details for now. The impetus behind doing so is because they are the best fit for over 2 weeks worth of index continuity, which shows a robust -EPO with a mode change of the PNA dropping some 1.5 total SD, whilst the NAO is going from negative to neutral positive. With the wave lengths/distribution shortened, particularly wrt the -EPO forcing across the downstream continent, in the end the ridge signal through the Ohio Valley and SE Canada should be more successfully realized. That's precisely what the operational runs are finally coming around to seeing. I call this a > 50% latter mid range outlook/confidence, too. Getting into particulars ... yeah, there's room to negotiate based on nuances of timing both 850 mb warm nodes with diurnal cycling... Related to that, the SW heat release model is taking place antecedent to all this, so that kinetic air source being accessible is also a wild card that could send this more into synergistic tendencies ( whereby we over achieve...). To mention cloud distribution and or convection. This ridging won't be historic, and so total suppression of the latter isn't assumed. These sort of details need to be sorted out. But definitely going above normal from ~ Wed but more certainly Thurs - Sunday. The 00z operational Euro would send Friday and Saturday to the mid 90s. It's 2-meter graphics looks retarded through the whole period. It dawns next Saturday with 850's around 16 .. 17C, and ends the day at 20C ... limiting the sfc temperatures to 82 to 84? That 3 degree bounce near the top of the planetary BL during the day, given the total synoptic manifold going on through the period, is more likely happening because the mixing layer has heated and grown that tall... in other words, the adiabats will extend to 20 f-ing C at that altitude. So it should be about 94 to 96. I don't get these products some times... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm personally taking a blend of the 00z Euro with the 06z GFS for general layout, and sans any details for now. The impetus behind doing so is because they are the best fit for over 2 weeks worth of index continuity, which shows a robust -EPO with a mode change of the PNA dropping some 1.5 total SD, whilst the NAO is going from negative to neutral positive. With the wave lengths/distribution shortened, particularly wrt the -EPO forcing across the downstream continent, in the end the ridge signal through the Ohio Valley and SE Canada should be more successfully realized. That's precisely what the operational runs are finally coming around to seeing. I call this a > 50% latter mid range outlook/confidence, too. Getting into particulars ... yeah, there's room to negotiate based on nuances of timing both 850 mb warm nodes with diurnal cycling... Related to that, the SW heat release model is taking place antecedent to all this, so that kinetic air source being accessible is also a wild card that could send this more into synergistic tendencies ( whereby we over achieve...). To mention cloud distribution and or convection. This ridging won't be historic, and so total suppression of the latter isn't assumed. These sort of details need to be sorted out. But definitely going above normal from ~ Wed but more certainly Thurs - Sunday. The 00z operational Euro would send Friday and Saturday to the mid 90s. It's 2-meter graphics looks retarded through the whole period. It dawns next Saturday with 850's around 16 .. 17C, and ends the day at 20C ... limiting the sfc temperatures to 82 to 84? That 3 degree bounce near the top of the planetary BL during the day, given the total synoptic manifold going on through the period, is more likely happening because the mixing layer has heated and grown that tall... in other words, the adiabats will extend to 20 f-ing C at that altitude. So it should be about 94 to 96. I don't get these products some times... The 2M stuff I looked at showed 90s next Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The 2M stuff I looked at showed 90s next Saturday. Ok ... Sunday was the day that rolled eyes and stopped me from looking any further. It's my bad attitude about these 2-meter graphics out in time. LOL For one, the Euro's 2-meter does tend to be too low in the summer anyway. They all do. It's probably an avoidable error out in time, though. As the model's projection gets longer, it's collecting stuff from ... "fractal inclusion" that interferes with potential but won't likely really exist. so the products tend to dim. The orbital synoptics look like a good ole fashion barn burner over the top job. Which can f-up from this range anyway but assuming - The mixing signal is there on Sunday, yet it limits to 80s thing. Who cares at this range though - right. hahaha. I took look anyway at the other shit and model's pretty 300 and 500 mb loaded with RH so it's likely cloud contaminating the heating ability. That said, I don't see how the 850 mb expands thermally to 20C and still obeying the adiabatic math so that seems dubious. We'll see... But you're right about Saturday. I would argue though that the correction vector is pointed up by a little. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 I was hoping this would all had stayed further east, Nope, Under a flash flood watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ok ... Sunday was the day that rolled eyes and stopped me from looking any further. It's my bad attitude about these 2-meter graphics out in time. LOL For one, the Euro's 2-meter does tend to be too low in the summer anyway. They all do. It's probably an avoidable error out in time, though. As the model's projection gets longer, it's collecting stuff from ... "fractal inclusion" that interferes with potential but won't likely really exist. so the products tend to dim - The mixing signal is there on Sunday, yet it limits to 80s thing. Who cares at this range though - right. hahaha. I took look anyway at the other shit and model's pretty 300 and 500 mb loaded with RH so it's likely cloud contaminating the heating ability. That said, I don't see how the 850 mb expands thermally to 20C and still obeying the adiabatic math so that seems dubious. We'll see... But you're right about Saturday. I would argue though that the correction vector is pointed up by a little. I wonder if cloud cover was playing a role? Gets precious in here during aftn. It does have 90 tickling BOS to OWD area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I was hoping this would all had stayed further east, Nope. Congrats on a warm season CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 Partly sunny and up to 70 here...upton still says 60% chance of showers but no model support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Congrats on a warm season CCB. If this was winter, It would be congrats scooter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Partly sunny and up to 70 here...upton still says 60% chance of showers but no model support Yeah... as the day's aging on, it seems there's "partial bust" with this. I mean, it's not opting toward a nice day for us back E per se ha, it may be prove drier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 57/57 +RN What a June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 Rain (and owl hootenanny!) just started here. So much for yard stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 15 hours ago, dryslot said: NO Stein. June rain 4.15" thru 7 this morning, year total 24.12", and the all-day rain has begun. Had no rain last Monday, the one and only so far this month. Had to replant about 2/3 of the garden. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 Plenty of rain in Bedford last 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 18 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 57/57 +RN What a June. .44” here so far. The woods are rapidly transitioning to jungle mode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 24 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 57/57 +RN What a June. I just looked at Burlington NWS' climate maze ... (assholes) web interface and finally found the cumulative June ... looks like y'allz runnin' about -0.6 and not terribly outside normal for rainfall so far. So, yeah ... 'what a June' - as in, nothing inspirational and within reasonable climate norms, is the new horror. HAHA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 Going to RI and hoping to get lucky with lightning today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I just looked at Burlington NWS' climate maze ... (assholes) web interface and finally found the cumulative June ... looks like y'allz runnin' about -0.6 and not terribly outside normal for rainfall so far. So, yeah ... 'what a June' - as in, nothing inspirational and within reasonable climate norms, is the new horror. HAHA Ha, it’s more the vibe after May’s glorious month. First two days of 90s helped in June. Looking at it for the last 15 days though… In the last 15 days, we have hit or exceeded 80F exactly once at MVL. 9 of 15 days had maximum temps of 72F or lower. 5 days (today may be 6) of 65F or lower maxes. 14 of the last 16 days with at least a trace or more of precipitation locally at MVL. 10 of last 11 days with measurable rainfall. Mins have been mild though helping departures… but it’s been showery, and the maxes have been quite subdue. Its true the aggregate may be about normal, but it’s felt shitty. Need a week of sunny 82F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 I'm up in York today and it's really coming down hard, looking at radar, looks to continue for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I just looked at Burlington NWS' climate maze ... (assholes) web interface and finally found the cumulative June ... looks like y'allz runnin' about -0.6 and not terribly outside normal for rainfall so far. So, yeah ... 'what a June' - as in, nothing inspirational and within reasonable climate norms, is the new horror. HAHA MPV would be more representative of Stowe than BTV maybe they are similar thou I know where PF works along Spine of N greens would anomaly wise be represented by mount Mansfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 1 hour ago, dryslot said: If this was winter, It would be congrats scooter. I think you mean Binghamton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: MPV would be more representative of Stowe than BTV It’s not the aggregates though, it’s like the most brutal way to get to normal there the past two weeks lol. Low maxes, high mins, showery but not excessive. Just cloudy with daily showers. MPV highest temp of 81F since the 2nd with only 3 dry days of 17 this month. I get cranky when stuck inside for rain this time of year … when you can start a hike at 7pm and end at 9pm and it’s still light. May was a 3-week San Diego dream, wish we could do that all warm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17, 2023 Share Posted June 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ha, it’s more the vibe after May’s glorious month. First two days of 90s helped in June. Looking at it for the last 15 days though… In the last 15 days, we have hit or exceeded 80F exactly once at MVL. 9 of 15 days had maximum temps of 72F or lower. 5 days (today may be 6) of 65F or lower maxes. 14 of the last 16 days with at least a trace or more of precipitation locally at MVL. 10 of last 11 days with measurable rainfall. Mins have been mild though helping departures… but it’s been showery, and the maxes have been quite subdue. Its true the aggregate may be about normal, but it’s felt shitty. Need a week of sunny 82F. Oh yeah I agree. As they say in social dynamics, 'politics is perception' similarly ... timing is everything in how we manifest our perceptions. It's just funny how the relationship between "existential climate" vs empirical climate seldom reconcile. haha. If these closed troughs happened late Wed through early Fridays and not coincided with every f'ing weekend, and we were back to 80 today, instead of doing that between today and Monday or whatever it takes to move this pos along, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Or, 'what a June' has the other connotation - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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