WxWatcher007 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's their typical m.o. with "..environmental conditions are conducive," which can encapsulate a lot .. But I wonder if this emerging Cape Verdi TS and invest trigger pull might be related to the marine heat wave that's occurring over the eastern Atlantic. ...soaring to some +4 C over a gargantuan area, too.. interesting. CV season on June 15 is pretty darn early Quite early. Operational guidance has gotten more aggressive with TC genesis in the MDR but the signal has been there for a while. Not sure about the environment in the western Atlantic in 7-10 days though allowing for something tangible to survive with a TUTT lurking. It’s historically warm across much of the basin. Just outrageous anomalies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I used to hate the heat. But man it's good to be outside and doing summer stuff with the family. I don't mind that at all now. Winter is the season now starting to wear me down. It's too long to have permanent November weather like we've been experiencing. As much as DIT has perverted the phrase, I enjoy seasons in season. There is something to like in every season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I like the GFS with a tropical system into the Cape from the SE. It won’t happen but it raises an interesting question for me: what’s the earliest hurricane strike on record in NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I like the GFS with a tropical system into the Cape from the SE. Atleast it's only 8 days away 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Atleast it's only 8 days away It's more amusing than anything - not that you think anything more. But forgetting the outlook distance ... A 986 mb rapidly filling core passing over 55 F colder than normal shelf waters is probably barely above a breezy day ... lol Gotta love the GFS fantasies 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 53 minutes ago, weathafella said: Yeah had that nao been just a bit less robust we’d have gone to town. Even if the NAO were just as strong, while not an ideal pattern for us and especially me, I am confident some of those systems would evolve slightly differently and that would have major sensible implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Even if the NAO were just as strong, while not an ideal pattern for us and especially me, I am confident some of those systems would evolve slightly differently and that would have major sensible implications. But the marine puke from the very strong NAO killed us in February and made NNE folks hating NAO forever. We had that between Xmas and new years 1995 but it relented enough to our delight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 Summer of bore continues as we spend this mid-June afternoon writing about PG rated tropical fantasies and what could have been in a winter that passed thirteen years ago. What a time to be alive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It won’t happen but it raises an interesting question for me: what’s the earliest hurricane strike on record in NE? Just off of the top of my head, Hurricane Cindy in July 1959??..or perhaps the hurricane in July 1916??...There were likely earlier ones in the 1600's and 1700's but they may have been thought of as a strong storm rather than a tropical system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Just off of the top of my head, Hurricane Cindy in July 1959??..or perhaps the hurricane in July 1916??...There were likely earlier ones in the 1600's and 1700's but they may have been thought of as a strong storm rather than a tropical system. Cindy was barely a depression here I think. Not sure about 1916. Bertha is the one that strikes me as a decent impact with heavy rain and strong winds. That was in July 1996. Bertha was a TS here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Cindy was barely a depression here I think. Not sure about 1916. Bertha is the one that strikes me as a decent impact with heavy rain and strong winds. That was in July 1996. Bertha was a TS here. If Cindy doesn't qualify then it is likely the 1916 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: If Cindy doesn't qualify then it is likely the 1916 storm. Weakened to a TS just before landfall. But that is an interesting track.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1916_Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File:1916_Atlantic_hurricane_3_track.png 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weakened to a TS just before landfall. But that is an interesting track.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1916_Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File:1916_Atlantic_hurricane_3_track.png Then perhaps a storm from the 1600's or 1700's...The big unknown is the time period before the 1600's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weakened to a TS just before landfall. But that is an interesting track.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1916_Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File:1916_Atlantic_hurricane_3_track.png Just now while doing research I stumbled upon this... #25 - Early American hurricanes, 1492-1870 / David M. Ludlum. - Full View | HathiTrust Digital Library 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Just now while doing research I stumbled upon this... #25 - Early American hurricanes, 1492-1870 / David M. Ludlum. - Full View | HathiTrust Digital Library I gotta read this again. Great source material Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: I gotta read this again. Great source material I have the book but I was stunned to see it available online. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 22 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Just now while doing research I stumbled upon this... #25 - Early American hurricanes, 1492-1870 / David M. Ludlum. - Full View | HathiTrust Digital Library This looks awesome. Not tropical but it looks like the low this weekend has trended a little stronger on the Euro. Messy weekend on tap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: This looks awesome. Not tropical but it looks like the low this weekend has trended a little stronger on the Euro. Messy weekend on tap. Someone is getting a lot of water. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 Lol https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/when-to-turn-your-ac-on-in-new-england-a-decision-guide 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This looks awesome. Not tropical but it looks like the low this weekend has trended a little stronger on the Euro. Messy weekend on tap. Ludlum's other books Early American Winters Vol 1 and 2 and Early American Tornadoes are must haves! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 Euro is interesting. It buries the cutoff well south and gets some very warm to hot air moving in late week. An absolute furnace in NNE, especially nrn ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/when-to-turn-your-ac-on-in-new-england-a-decision-guide Classic ! Sounds like 1/3 the forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 15, 2023 Author Share Posted June 15, 2023 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is interesting. It buries the cutoff well south and gets some very warm to hot air moving in late week. An absolute furnace in NNE, especially nrn ME. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is interesting. It buries the cutoff well south and gets some very warm to hot air moving in late week. An absolute furnace in NNE, especially nrn ME. Yeah, I was just going to comment on that ... This can sneak up and bite - these "synergistic heat phenomenon" ... A pattern change has been pretty evident for many, many runs now, one that would at minimum offer more seasonal low temperatures and increasing WB temps... It's always a bit of mystery when nearing a wholesale design change, whether we're heading into amp town or how far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 Euro has 18 to 30 or so inches of rain in the western Carolinas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: AWT Ha - more like, AWATNO ... As We Advanced Weather True Or Not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 EPS shows similar. Hopefully this is more right than wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 The other aspect ... that closed low was never more than 576 in scalar modeled depth. Relative to the surrounding medium, it was always a bit dubious how much the models were were using that shallow mechanics to cause all that shit tubing out of the east anyway. GGEM trended a little too fwiw - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 3 hours ago, weathafella said: Yeah had that nao been just a bit less robust we’d have gone to town. Take 2009-10 with slightly less exotic blocking and you probably have a blockbuster winter here (and quite a bit colder too) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Quite early. Operational guidance has gotten more aggressive with TC genesis in the MDR but the signal has been there for a while. Not sure about the environment in the western Atlantic in 7-10 days though allowing for something tangible to survive with a TUTT lurking. It’s historically warm across much of the basin. Just outrageous anomalies. I'd be more interested in OHC and T-depth numbers rather than SSTs out there since a little upwelling can sometimes wipe out big + anomalies within days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now