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June 2023 Summer Begins


Damage In Tolland
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Case in point ... Will's grouse has merit.

This has been a recurring spring into early summer theme now, a leitmotif that began roughly 10 or 15 years ago, where we get this over-the-top "folding pattern" - what does that means?  just look at the guidance means. 

We keep setting the table for ridging and heat, but what happens is it surges across S Canada, and below ~ 700 mb level, there's easterlies into the M/A.  This pools cooler 850 mb air from D.C. to Boston for one, but it also delivers the heat of summer into Ontario and Quebec...  We may see CAR with hotter afternoon readings than NYC if the models have their way...  They're constructing the "fold" ...         again.

But there's moving deltas.  The aspect above is observably true year to year,... but, it also gets over amplfied in the guidance, too.  So they pick up on it and run too far.   This recent trough series ( the one last weekend, yesterday and this follow-up slated to butt poke Saturday) were all modeled to be under L.I. from distance, and instead they are turning out "a little" shallower and taking a more neutral latitude transit over the region.   I think this latter subtle correction tendency might make next week perhaps a little less obviously up-side-down ...

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I used to hate the heat. But man it's good to be outside and doing summer stuff with the family. I don't mind that at all now. Winter is the season now starting to wear me down. It's too long to have permanent November weather like we've been experiencing. 

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Just now, weathafella said:

Heading into a strong nino are getting a 2009 style summer?

Yeah some hints of that. Northern Hemi pattern not an exact match yet, but lower heights over the east happened both in 2009 and currently. That's definitely a big reason for the last few weeks imo.

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It's their typical m.o. with "..environmental conditions are conducive," which can encapsulate a lot .. But I wonder if this emerging Cape Verdi TS and invest trigger pull might be related to the marine heat wave that's occurring over the eastern Atlantic.    ...soaring to some +4 C over a gargantuan area, too..  interesting.

CV season on June 15 is pretty darn early

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