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June 2023 Summer Begins


Damage In Tolland
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9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Wet-bulb temps have been chilly for quite some time, as we all have experienced… it’s interesting that we may have finally had a persistent ULL type pattern to start the warm season. In recent years it hasn’t been as persistent a feature.

I'd even suggest that it's late ...as in taking time away from the 'the warm season' -

More typically, these meanders are akin to April and May.  

But, there's all kinds of subtle signs of CC in the actual circulation tendencies world over.  Seasonal pre and post lapsing ...smearing the transition seasons is one of them, and I wonder if the lateness above might just be one of those easily over looked attribution aspects.

Attribution ( as an aside ) I think needs to be expanded as a science/inference effort et al, across a broader spectrum of events.  They only go after big dawg heat /cold and storms... But as a Meteorologists transfixed to synoptics weather for so many years, we know better and there's oddities occurring.  

Of course, that's not carte blanche to blame every cumulus cloud on CC, and some will attempt to do so.   The unfortunate reality is, however .. there are some subtler, non-impacting aspects taking place that are not part of the climate the planet is moving away from. To me, this cooler WB and warm stymied entrance ... while in tandem the current graphical trends suggest June ends the warmest ever in global history by a large margin ... may not actually be uncoupled.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Weekend gone 

Yeah, and unfortunately this close in the standard late spring correction of model over pessimism may not work either…

It seems when eying from a long way out in time … one can almost count on it.  There’s always one last little turd before a pattern change. Do you know what it reminds me of ha ha. It reminds me of that scene where Leslie Nielsen hesitates, looks back over her shoulder, then steps back just to give the panicking passenger one last smack in the face in the movie airplane.

we should just adopt that formally into synoptic meteorology techniques at an operational recognition. Whenever we’re looking at a pattern change you can say, don’t forget the Leslie Nielsen.

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32 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If Rev thinks this is muggy he may be having hot flashes . Rev,  ask your doc if it’s low T 

Grasping at straws at this point.  Anything being called “muggy” this week will probably feel like a cool crisp day after July/August.

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All BS aside, I don't see why we are calling any of this muggy. Like...I am trying to see the reasoning and I don't see it. 

Pro Tip: If you want to get an idea of how humid it would be, I like looking at the 0-30mb Dews on Weather.Cod. This will give you an idea of what the low level dews are like. Unlike srfc dews that are usually too high, this will show you if we mix out and keep them lower because it is taking into account the first 30mb of the atmosphere, from ground level up to say 970mb or whatever. When you see the 0-30mb show 60+, that's a good indication of higher humidity as it's taking into account any mixing. If you just look at srfc TDs...it will be biased too high.

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

All BS aside, I don't see why we are calling any of this muggy. Like...I am trying to see the reasoning and I don't see it. 

Pro Tip: If you want to get an idea of how humid it would be, I like looking at the 0-30mb Dews on Weather.Cod. This will give you an idea of what the low level dews are like. Unlike srfc dews that are usually too high, this will show you if we mix out and keep them lower because it is taking into account the first 30mb of the atmosphere, from ground level up to say 970mb or whatever. When you see the 0-30mb show 60+, that's a good indication of higher humidity as it's taking into account any mixing. If you just look at srfc TDs...it will be biased too high.

I feel as though it is muggy. Not oppressive, but more humid than I would prefer.

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