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June 2023 Summer Begins


Damage In Tolland
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21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s hope most towns get hit today . If not it’s Stein thru next week other than a few pop ups 

What a time for a positive PNA NEG Nao AO to show up. Should mean multiple chances for rain but also lots of COC days. Going to take full pool advantage today as it could be a long while before we go back in. Maybe put the cover back on?

Tip of the cap

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10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Good call on the 96F for BTV.

Even SLK at 1,600ft hit 90F.

65F at MWN is pretty damn warm too.

Hottest day of summer in NNE?

Down 30+ degrees to 61F now though. 

 

MLT reached 94 and the Aroostook sites were all low 90s.

89/47 here, was stuffy mid-80s late in the afternoon after the brief (one-boom) TS at 3 PM, then a slightly greater shower dropped temps to the upper 60s by 9 PM.  55 for today's morning low, now rising thru the 80s.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The GEFS and EPS came west too. 

may sound kinda :wacko: to suggest but ... I kinda like the NAM's idea on this 12z. 

in simpler respects it's kind of a compromise. 

The upshot is that it's not the whole weekend ... it's shitty tomorrow, but sunnier on Sunday. Oddly chilly on the coast/shore exposed ... with wind.. but it may make the upper 60s to near 70 out by 495 ...etc that day.

Doesn't help sore thumb SE zones, no - just sayn'

I mean if the models are going to be right about bullying in that new N stream raging boner idea next week, it's gotta bump the weekend's thing right along.  I don't buy the Euro's notion of stalling the lead and waiting for the latter ... to phase and destroy the rest of the entire summer straight through to Thanks Giving before finally switching to a ridge -out pattern that last through next April... and ...

oh, wait.  heh.     No but I'm also wondering if next week's thing starts to normalize some.  

 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

may sound kinda :wacko: to suggest but ... I kinda like the NAM's idea on this 12z. 

in simpler respects it's kind of a compromise. 

The upshot is that it's not the whole weekend ... it's shitty tomorrow, but sunnier on Sunday.

I mean if the models are going to be right about bullying in that new N stream raging boner idea next week, it's gotta bump the his weekends initial trough insert ... moving it right along.  I don't buy the Euro's notion of stalling the lead and waiting for the latter ... to phase and destroy the rest of the entire summer straight through to Thanks Giving before finally switching to a ridge -out pattern that last through next April... and ...

oh, wait.  heh.     No but I'm also wondering if next week's thing starts to normalize some.  

 

It's a really complicated pattern. It's a mix of the spring wavelengths still having cutoff tendencies, with a Nino look rapidly developing. So I'm not surprised with these troughs diving in almost N-S. Of course a degree of longitude with the placement means a difference of 65-70 or rain and 49 lol. 

If I had to guess later tomorrow and into a chunk of Sunday is good from like BDR-HFD up into srn VT and NNE from there into nrn NH and adjacent Maine. Highest confidence I think. 

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's a really complicated pattern. It's a mix of the spring wavelengths still having cutoff tendencies, with a Nino look rapidly developing. So I'm not surprised with these troughs diving in almost N-S. Of course a degree of longitude with the placement means a difference of 65-70 or rain and 49 lol. 

If I had to guess later tomorrow and into a chunk of Sunday is good from like BDR-HFD up into srn VT and NNE from there into nrn NH and adjacent Maine. Highest confidence I think. 

In my recollection with systems moving “N to S “, 85% of the time, things correct progressively . I haven’t looked at this closely but my guess would be if the system is supposed to move NNW to SSE i would bet it corrects East 

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25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

In my recollection with systems moving “N to S “, 85% of the time, things correct progressively . I haven’t looked at this closely but my guess would be if the system is supposed to move NNW to SSE i would bet it corrects East 

yeah..it's sort of why I've been hedging... among other reasons, but that 'correction climate' is there.  But as Scott nicely pointed out there ... this is higher end anomalous hemisphere so we have to unfortunately reconsider the lesser likely results, too. 

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20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Running six degrees ahead of yesterday’s temperature at this part of the day.

Ha, we are 6 degrees behind yesterday. But guess 93-96F doesn’t grow on trees so fair to say today might just be more run of the mill upper 80s up north today.

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