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June 2023 Summer Begins


Damage In Tolland
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14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Fish nailed the HHH week. Dews in 60’s all 5 days?  Tip caps 

 

Humid maybe, but when did 79-81° become "hot"?  Maybe if it's on April Fools' Day.

Upper 50s and cloudy here.  Had 0.04" overnight to mark the 13th day this month with measurable precip. 
(Most for any month here is 23, in both May 2005 and July 2009.  Only 2 other months have reached 20+.)

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1045 AM Update... Forecast generally on track. Have made some slight adjustments to timing showers/thunderstorms. Have leaned toward the latest ARW as it has initialized the upper cutoff/low over the eastern Great Lakes and the surface low associated with it well. Overall still the same messaging for today with strong to severe thunderstorms likely. Current thinking is that the risk is greatest the further SW you get, but we will need to closely watch the south coast as this is an area where there is roughly 30-40 kts of bulk shear. Does appear there is a bit of a boundary with the 60+ degree dew points and 500-1500 J/kg of CAPE along the with a S LLJ moving in. There are lesser values of CAPE further north and the shear is a bit more marginal, so this could be a limiting factor for western MA into eastern MA. Nonetheless will still need to monitor things closely. The low level lapse rates are still looking quite similar with nearly adiabatic lapse rates, approaching 8-9 degrees Celsius per km. Mid level lapse rates become a bit better especially as we head into the evening with the cold pool moving in overhead, -15 to -20 degrees Celsius at 500 hPa. Should see the mid level lapse rates increasing around 6-7 degrees Celsius by late. Think that the latest HRRR SCRAM and SREF Craven Brooks Sig Svr greater than 10k highlights the highest risk area well. There is a bit of backing across the CT River Valley and 0-1 SRH greater than 100 m2/s2 this afternoon, so while low we cannot completely rule out a tornado. Have also added a hail mention in the latest update as there is a few hundred J/kg of CAPE within the hail growth region.

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Just now, ineedsnow said:

dew of 53 at BDL doesnt scream severe to me

It is a bit of a concern, but guidance does have a brief period where dews surge out ahead of the storms...something to really watch. If that does happen and this all times with the CAA/steepening lapse rate in the mid-levels there could be some locally nasty storms this afternoon. 

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38 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It is a bit of a concern, but guidance does have a brief period where dews surge out ahead of the storms...something to really watch. If that does happen and this all times with the CAA/steepening lapse rate in the mid-levels there could be some locally nasty storms this afternoon. 

Dews will quickly increase this aftn which usually is a good thing to have a rapid increase. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Dews will quickly increase this aftn which usually is a good thing to have a rapid increase. 

Agreed, if you recall that fall event a few years back where Long Island had several TOR's I think that was a critical factor in that event. Dews spiked just prior to the convection arriving which would have resulted in rapidly lowering LCL's and a big instability spike which would have also enhanced updraft speed/strength. 

 

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