June 2023 Summer Begins

[weatherwiz]

Hoping to chase today 

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know. But I find it interesting that roads are still being plowed out in CA and western Canada is burning. 

strange times ...

 ... hard to parse out whether these are unusual, or it's that whole narrative about how technology just exposes the reality to the naive thing.  So it only "seems" unusual.

It's a digression ... but I'm not sure I buy that anymore. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Hoping to chase today 

Smoke?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Hoping to chase today 

can't have both... 

... or, it's less likely you will...

You either dim the sun down to where we fail 5-7 F on the high.  Or, you don't and you get the CAPE

[CoastalWx]

Boston buoy and Stellwagen bank are 53 and 54 respectively. Granted it’s been churned up lately and those buoys have a good diurnal response, but that seems a little BN? Boston Buoy will probably spike 5 degrees today haha.

[powderfreak]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

what I thought ... 

but that's also a broadly defined heading, 'human activity' 

like a deviant shit ball for a skull with a gas can counts under that header too -

Most often it’s campfires, BBQs in a park where coals are extinguished on a windy day. Cigarette butts out car windows blowing into roadside dry grasses.  One of the largest California fires was witnessed starting by a lowered like Honda Civic (or one of those types) bottoming out while pulling into a Wal-Mart… sparks from the under carriage blown in 40mph winds ignited the grass and forest next to the lot.

[OceanStWx]

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeeeah... thought of that. But I went back and there's fires going off where there wasn't much history of that on satellite.   I mean, tinder dry or not, background settings are not going to just spontaneously combust - so yeah, it has to be something. How about a 22 year old disenfranchised ugly rural Canadian hillbilly boys with gas cans and a manifold of dysfunctionally traumatic upbringing - heh

I almost wonder if this eco terrorism.  Haha.  Unfortunately, we live in an era whence that needs to be considered.  

Plenty of lightning on the 1st. 

[wxeyeNH]

Flow is bring the Quebec fires south into the East Coast.  

[Ginx snewx]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Boston buoy and Stellwagen bank are 53 and 54 respectively. Granted it’s been churned up lately and those buoys have a good diurnal response, but that seems a little BN? Boston Buoy will probably spike 5 degrees today haha.

Do these guys just make up torches when models say wut? Pretty much opposite of a torch and wet as you said.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Plenty of lightning on the 1st. 

It may be the case ... yup.   Do you have those records for the Nova Scotia region? 

Plus, it's a valid surmise; I just haven't heard any "official" accounting, either. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Flow is bring the Quebec fires south into the East Coast.  

I'll take that over SW flow.

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Most often it’s campfires, BBQs in a park where coals are extinguished on a windy day. Cigarette butts out car windows blowing into roadside dry grasses.  One of the largest California fires was witnessed starting by a lowered like Honda Civic (or one of those types) bottoming out while pulling into a Wal-Mart… sparks from the under carriage blown in 40mph winds ignited the grass and forest next to the lot.

Yeah ... I get it how it can happen, but that (bold) seems to be a hard sell.  Slag sparks don't remain at combustion temperatures long enough to carry in the wind.  Unless if fell directly on it perhaps. 

hm. Sometimes "accounting" can get started in equally mysterious origins hahaha.  Have to validate the source I suppose. 

The cigarette and campfire dipshit stuff, no problem -

[Typhoon Tip]

It's kind of amusing that we suffered days in the shits and it finally "clears" into a sun shut down by smoke - wah wah waaaah

[OceanStWx]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It may be the case ... yup.   Do you have those records for the Nova Scotia region? 

Plus, it's a valid surmise; I just haven't heard any "official" accounting, either. 

I believe the cause in Nova Scotia was human activity like @powderfreak described. The official reporting I've seen from Quebec is that most of the fire starts have been lightning (because there aren't any humans in some of these areas).

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I believe the cause in Nova Scotia was human activity like @powderfreak described. The official reporting I've seen from Quebec is that most of the fire starts have been lightning (because there aren't any humans in some of these areas).

Ha ha. I was just thinking that.  Like literally, 'but wait, who the hell's out there'  lol

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ... I get it how it can happen, but that (bold) seems to be a hard sell.  Slag sparks don't remain at combustion temperatures long enough to carry in the wind.  Unless if fell directly on it perhaps. 

hm. Sometimes "accounting" can get started in equally mysterious origins hahaha.  Have to validate the source I suppose. 

The cigarette and campfire dipshit stuff, no problem -

Yeah who knows. Also when discussing western US fires, we are dealing with conditions that are foreign to us so it’s hard to visualize.  I remember the documentary detailing the sparks had the grass immediately next to the entrance to the shopping plaza.  Santa Ana winds in CA sustained at 40mph, gusting 60mph through residential areas at like 6% RH and vegetation just looking for a reason to ignite… probably takes a lot less than we think.

People talk about it happening and I can’t comprehend it in their terms… like see sparks or cig butt go sideways in gale winds and 4 seconds later an entire tree is on fire and spreading at 40 mph.

The neighborhoods that have fire suppression systems are wild. Like the equivalent of sprinklers in a building… but outside and everywhere. When I was out in LA area it was like what are all these pipes running through brush everywhere?  Ohh, it’s a fire sprinkler system.

[Typhoon Tip]

Well in any case... it's not like we didn't know it was coming.

[CoastalWx]

This is some thick shit right now.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah who knows. Also when discussing western US fires, we are dealing with conditions that are foreign to us so it’s hard to visualize.  I remember the documentary detailing the sparks had the grass immediately next to the entrance to the shopping plaza.  Santa Ana winds in CA sustained at 40mph, gusting 60mph through residential areas at like 6% RH and vegetation just looking for a reason to ignite… probably takes a lot less than we think.

People talk about it happening and I can’t comprehend it in their terms… like see sparks or cig butt go sideways in gale winds and 4 seconds later an entire tree is on fire and spreading at 40 mph.

yeah, that makes sense - just a weird situ, like Leary taking an oil lantern to the stable setting after a dry summer, in October, setting it down, and then a cow or horse kicks it over and the next thing you know ...the Great Chicago Fire back in 1871 ( so like, last year - ha).   That sucker destroyed 17 thousand buildings along 70 something miles of street.  Granted, 1871 proooobably had a firebox construction standard - I don't know...

But that does hearken to your point about difficulty visualizing how settings make things more(less) plausible.  Have to think outside the box.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have a question ... has anyone heard/read of how these fires up in Canada are set?

I keep waiting to hear news break about that specific and nothing.  

I know sparks from freight trains is a common cause.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is some thick shit right now.

Seems to be some convection calving going on upstream. Some shear, with quicker mid level flow than the instability axis producing clouds over NE NY/upstate VT, is sending a region SE that appears have been processed a little less choked. 

[Supernovice]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well in any case... it's not like we didn't know it was coming.

Did we ever have this when we were growing up- i.e. 80's? I don't recall it...ever. 

 

And I feel like I would remember this post apocalyptic sky.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Is this really just pure smoke in the air below bright blue skies 

It’s close to “pure overcast“ right Now and the sun is “trying “ but not  even able to create shadows 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is some thick shit right now.

I've seen the sun down to barely discernible glowing ball from smoke at higher elevation. It was back in 2002 or 2003. I was living in Winchester, and there was a wild fire up in northwestern Quebec, and the smoke plume was narrow but exceptionally dense.  It was only like 150 miles wide if that, and pretty much shut the day down to overcast shade.

[BrianW]

46 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Most often it’s campfires, BBQs in a park where coals are extinguished on a windy day. Cigarette butts out car windows blowing into roadside dry grasses.  One of the largest California fires was witnessed starting by a lowered like Honda Civic (or one of those types) bottoming out while pulling into a Wal-Mart… sparks from the under carriage blown in 40mph winds ignited the grass and forest next to the lot.

And gender reveals...

 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, BrianW said:

I read most of the ones in Nova Scotia were from human activity. Probably the same with the ones now in Quebec.

The Nova Scotia wildfires are close to towns.  If that's also true of the P.Q. blazes then human activity is the probable cause.  If they are away from civilization and in the true boreal forest, more likely it's lightning.  The boreal black spruce holds its cones for decades and fires bring the cones down to the ground, opening them so the seeds can sprout and create a new forest.

[powderfreak]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is this really just pure smoke in the air below bright blue skies 

It’s like the evening golden hour at 8pm… but middle of the day.

[mreaves]

18 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I know sparks from freight trains is a common cause.

That's happened several times around here before green up in spring  They don't get very big most of the time.

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, Supernovice said:

Did we ever have this when we were growing up- i.e. 80's? I don't recall it...ever. 

 

And I feel like I would remember this post apocalyptic sky.

Yeah, we did ... It's a matter of frequency?  - the latter is accelerated in recent years. 

I think it takes time to sort out attribution though. I'm not sure I believe articles in mainstream Industrial Media Complex headlining ... that blame the Canadian fires on early heat wave(s) - that might be so, but unfortunately ... recent cultural decades have blown a goodly amount of base-credibility. I haven't seen that in the preprint ambit just yet. 

Wild fires are part of the natural order.  There's bit of an irregular cyclic nature to them.  There needs fuels for one. Once a region has burned... it has to refit itself.  That takes successive seasons of growth and death cycles.

Then, if/when seasonal antecedence sets up the favorable environment... along comes an isolate thunder clap, or PF's low rider souped-up Honda Civic being driven by a 'truly productive member of society' blaring a woofer boomin' rape rap to indifferently grind his chassis on a flinting parking lot surface ... completely oblivious, and the rest is history. 

There's probably a normalized distribution in time, where a region averages 1 episode for so many years...etc, when not caused by the above asshole turning into a mall for the cannabis dispensary shop... 

    (I'm only cynical on Tuesdays)

Anyway ... perhaps CC is causing, relative to region, the cyclic performance to speed up?   good question

[tamarack]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, that makes sense - just a weird situ, like Leary taking an oil lantern to the stable setting after a dry summer, in October, setting it down, and then a cow or horse kicks it over and the next thing you know ...the Great Chicago Fire back in 1871 ( so like, last year - ha).   That sucker destroyed 17 thousand buildings along 70 something miles of street.  Granted, 1871 proooobably had a firebox construction standard - I don't know...

But that does hearken to your point about difficulty visualizing how settings make things more(less) plausible.  Have to think outside the box.

The Chicago fire was spread by howling winds.  220 miles to the north, those same winds brought a firestorm down on the lumber mill town of Peshtigo, killing about 1,500.