Typhoon Tip Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 heh ... the NAM's last couple of cycles buckin' for 60+ straight hours of 0 deviation from 53 F and 0 deviation in cloud cover and 0 deviation of wind direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 How’s Kevin’s partly cloudy and 70 doing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 Haha. Scott trying to lure Kevin out of cover … 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 Temp still tickling down some. 50F. Ended up a pretty high end door off a 91F high yesterday. Well see if we recover at all later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 3, 2023 Author Share Posted June 3, 2023 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: How’s Kevin’s partly cloudy and 70 doing? Already been a few breaks. Should see more this afternoon. With any luck gets into low 60’s. Enjoy the 40’s and sheet rains out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Already been a few breaks. Should see more this afternoon. With any luck gets into low 60’s. Enjoy the 40’s and sheet rains out there Breaks lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 26 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Temp still tickling down some. 50F. Ended up a pretty high end door off a 91F high yesterday. Well see if we recover at all later this afternoon. Not to be too priggish but ... it was really more of a 'hybrid front.' More of a backdoor phenomenon down the coast S of here - if that makes any sense. Typically ( for the general reader ... ) the S/W cuts SE out of E Quebec ... more often times, barely denting the non-hydrostatic gradient over us ... as it sweeps past up there. The front that results beneath really doesn't look physically like it should even be there. But that's when/where our local geography dooms us... Typically there is a NW flow type at mid levels as the above S/W slips past. That is flow is lifted over the Dacks/Greens/Whites general massif ... and than passes as an elevated wind max that becomes slightly imbalanced in the lower elevation nadir east of said elevations ... as that lower eastern region fades to sea level (where cold Labradorian water mass and cool dense slab of air is just aching for a reason to move west ...) That induces a vector pointing back SW or W ... Now imagine if the above S/W in our example triggered a front to move back SW. That happens everywhere, anyway ... These fronts have a backward wash momentum - it's just a matter of how much so. Just look at the current sfc layout from WPC this hour, and it's trying to move SW toward Michigan ( the main frontal axis). But if we superimpose that type of momentum over the top of the above geographic/geo restoring tendency, that's what drills the "real" BD scenario. It's really more of a "meso beta scaled" event, as the synoptics are smaller then continental and confined to just our region ..etc ... where the "pure" BD mechanics create the momentum. This thing is tied into a wholesale mass-field jolt retrograde - actually one of the faster I can recall - different conversation. This was more a straight N-S cold front that would have overwhelmed all those other mechanics. But I think of it as a hybrid, because it is shallowing out ... and will end up being a BD down toward the mid Atlantic. Either way... 93 to 53 is a straight 40 point correction in 24 hours. It's a whopper synopstic ordeal. Evidence of this latter can be seen in guidance, where this thing isn't a one an done thing. They're trying set up a 10 days pattern with this cold local hemisphere anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Already been a few breaks. Should see more this afternoon. With any luck gets into low 60’s. Enjoy the 40’s and sheet rains out there Don't think there's any luck. models have you dropping to the low 50s through the afternoon, and in the 40s by late evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Breaks lol. yeah... this oughta send 'im up to at minimum, the lower 60s but quite possibly even 70, huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 Time to focus on the cold pool week and I’m not talking about Steve’s pool either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Time to focus on the cold pool week and I’m not talking about Steve’s pool either mm... provided we raise the hydrostatic medium below the ~ 750 mb level. This thing the models are structuring isn't a cold pool towers by 11:30 am type of look - at least not to me. It's a perpetuating NE flow of uber stable cold Labradorian ejecta. The ocean/Maritime source is a problem for that 'cold pool convection' idea. For obvious reasons... But .. the models could too pessimistic and/or just wrong about how the lower tropospheric vectors lay in. We'll have to see.. but for now, this has sort of a mock 2005 May appeal to it ...at least for the next 5 days ( yikes! ) The present severing 500 mb attempts to move away, but we dump in a fresh new N-stream turd over the next day, and that plunks down in to capture the lead. The whole thing deepens and retrogrades... In 2005 that exchange happened in perpetuity for 3 weeks and gobbled nearly the entire month. it was literally between 39 and 50 that entire span as a back carving retro 'great blue spot' locked in. Not saying it's the same scenario this week, but it can be "too much" to allow a cold pool with a lower level underneath that is very capable of becoming diurnally unstable like your imagining there . lol... nope. No convective salvage. Just enjoy the Labrador butt bang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 Maine cocorahs reports now up to 108. Our 0.12" is tied with HUL for 101st. Next town west measured 0.70" to 1.03"; next county east had the state's 2 greatest amounts, 2.44" and 2.31". Got maybe another 10th 10-10:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: mm... provided we raise the hydrostatic medium below the ~ 750 mb level. This thing the models are structuring isn't a cold pool towers by 11:30 am type of look - at least not to me. It's a perpetuating NE flow of uber stable cold Labradorian ejecta. The ocean/Maritime source is a problem for that 'cold pool convection' idea. For obvious reasons... But .. the models could too pessimistic and/or just wrong about how the lower tropospheric vectors lay in. We'll have to see.. but for now, this has sort of a mock 2005 May appeal to it ...at least for the next 5 days ( yikes! ) The present severing 500 mb attempts to move away, but we dump in a fresh new N-stream turd over the next day, and that plunks down in to capture the lead. The whole thing deepens and retrogrades... In 2005 that happen in perpetuity for 3 weeks and gobbled nearly the entire month. it was literally between 39 and 50 that entire span as a back carving retro 'great blue spot' locked in. Not saying it's the same scenario this week, but it can be "too much" to allow a cold pool with a lower level underneath that is very capable of becoming diurnally unstable like your imagining there . lol... nope. No convective salvage. Just enjoy the Labrador butt bang Yeah we’ll have to see how the models really handle the lower levels as we get closer. At least bulk shear looks decent as do lapse rates so if we can not get screwed with a stable sfc we’ll have stuff to work with. Initially thinking any Convective chances may be tied to higher terrain but we’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yeah we’ll have to see how the models really handle the lower levels as we get closer. At least bulk shear looks decent as do lapse rates so if we can not get screwed with a stable sfc we’ll have stuff to work with. Initially thinking any Convective chances may be tied to higher terrain but we’ll see Yeah, and I'm being deliberately mocked by the models. LOL ... soon as the post happens, the new run goes out of its way. I was being somewhat sarcastic in that last missive ... but, it was based upon actual model depictions - like I said though, maybe they'll be wrong? The 12z NAM is hugely different for Monday now. Suggests clearing with the onshore flow cut all but completely off. ...seems to parlay into a warmer Tuesday in that cinema. Meanwhile, the cyclonic flow structure aloft persists ... maybe. heh...NAM beyond 24 hours doesn't inspire much confidence either way I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Already been a few breaks. Should see more this afternoon. With any luck gets into low 60’s. Enjoy the 40’s and sheet rains out there Thank God we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 Not bad weather for a hike this morning. 45F at the picnic tables, 53F base. Cloud base about picnic table height. Nice variety for a cool hike after the heat this week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 53 ...dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 55 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not to be too priggish but ... it was really more of a 'hybrid front.' More of a backdoor phenomenon down the coast S of here - if that makes any sense. Typically ( for the general reader ... ) the S/W cuts SE out of E Quebec ... more often times, barely denting the non-hydrostatic gradient over us ... as it sweeps past up there. The front that results beneath really doesn't look physically like it should even be there. But that's when/where our local geography dooms us... Typically there is a NW flow type at mid levels as the above S/W slips past. That is flow is lifted over the Dacks/Greens/Whites general massif ... and than passes as an elevated wind max that becomes slightly imbalanced in the lower elevation nadir east of said elevations ... as that lower eastern region fades to sea level (where cold Labradorian water mass and cool dense slab of air is just aching for a reason to move west ...) That induces a vector pointing back SW or W ... Now imagine if the above S/W in our example triggered a front to move back SW. That happens everywhere, anyway ... These fronts have a backward wash momentum - it's just a matter of how much so. Just look at the current sfc layout from WPC this hour, and it's trying to move SW toward Michigan ( the main frontal axis). But if we superimpose that type of momentum over the top of the above geographic/geo restoring tendency, that's what drills the "real" BD scenario. It's really more of a "meso beta scaled" event, as the synoptics are smaller then continental and confined to just our region ..etc ... where the "pure" BD mechanics create the momentum. This thing is tied into a wholesale mass-field jolt retrograde - actually one of the faster I can recall - different conversation. This was more a straight N-S cold front that would have overwhelmed all those other mechanics. But I think of it as a hybrid, because it is shallowing out ... and will end up being a BD down toward the mid Atlantic. Either way... 93 to 53 is a straight 40 point correction in 24 hours. It's a whopper synopstic ordeal. Evidence of this latter can be seen in guidance, where this thing isn't a one an done thing. They're trying set up a 10 days pattern with this cold local hemisphere anomaly. Agree that it's kinda of a hybrid, not just a shallow pool of cold air surging south. Temp is still dropping heading into midday, 49F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 Drought is over here. Apparently I got nearly 7” of rain yesterday. Surprising lack of flash flooding too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 3, 2023 Author Share Posted June 3, 2023 27 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Thank God we don't live there. Brutal AEMATT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 3, 2023 Author Share Posted June 3, 2023 33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah, and I'm being deliberately mocked by the models. LOL ... soon as the post happens, the new run goes out of its way. I was being somewhat sarcastic in that last missive ... but, it was based upon actual model depictions - like I said though, maybe they'll be wrong? The 12z NAM is hugely different for Monday now. Suggests clearing with the onshore flow cut all but completely off. ...seems to parlay into a warmer Tuesday in that cinema. Meanwhile, the cyclonic flow structure aloft persists ... maybe. heh...NAM beyond 24 hours doesn't inspire much confidence either way I suppose. It’s June.. we’ll have plenty of sunny mornings into midday upcoming week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Brutal AEMATT Yeah. 51 instead of 53. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 49° with occasional light showers. Not bad for noon a couple weeks from the solstice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: 49° with occasional light showers. Not bad for noon a couple weeks from the solstice. I was wondering about that this morning.. .how it compares to the 2021 4th of July weekend of the damned ... Wasn't that Saturday, July 2nd in the upper 40s ? I was thinking that 2021 scenario was actually closer to the sun's perennial zenith. I wonder what the coldest solstice high low /diurnal mean actually is. I recall ... 2001 I think it was ( so I guess I don't recall very well ha!). I was peering out the 3rd floor of my apartment window over Chestnut street below, living in Waltham .... that May 19th or 22nd ... it was like literally a month from the solstice, and there were white rain globs going passed embedded in the sheets of upper 30s rain. It was mixing with bow-tie pasta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 Sitting at 49 off a mid nite high on 59. perfect June weather. there will be no 60’s here as it’s 100% cloudy with occasional drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 Fairly significant heat signal materializing beyond next week. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 47 and rain, off a high of 91 yesterday. Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 3, 2023 Author Share Posted June 3, 2023 Excuse me Sonny? https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wTyUtBeG3Vc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 Greenville, ME at 43 right now. Woodstove cranking at my house, ac was on yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted June 3, 2023 Share Posted June 3, 2023 Coolest area in the lower 48 tomorrow 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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