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June 2023 Summer Begins


Damage In Tolland
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7 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

The coup was a sham:

Wagner forces moved out of the lines in the south -> toward Moscow -> then WEST toward KYIV and are now located north of KYIV. This movement of a very large and dangerous force was done quickly, unmolested, and informationally safe under the cover the 'rebellion.' I'll note here that the Wagner forces were not obliterated in an airstrike while they were sitting ducks on a highway.  The movement was too easy.  

The idea that Putin is weak is propagated witlessly in the media and possibly within Western intelligence services (unless they are playing along to protect their own thinking).  

Rather Putin has moved a set piece in a masterstroke and is firmly in command of the situation.

Did Ukraine fall for it?  Are they prepared to defend KYIV?  Did they pull reserves from the south to cover the flank during this crisis?  Hmmm....time will tell.     

No idea if there is any truth to that , and sadly I can’t just dismiss that Option , but really don’t care either way ..thou in this case I don’t think that theory holds any water 

The Nordstrom coverage was a masterclass in propaganda and one of the rare times the left and right clown news circuits Read from same script . I mean I get it ..Russia is no good and one of the more lousy, ruthless governments . But the idea they blew up their own pipeline was basically a litmus test to see if emotions >critical thinking ... they usually do when most folks aren’t feeling like doing the equivalent of a home assignment to figure something out . 

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

No idea if there is any truth to that , and sadly I can’t just dismiss that Option , but really don’t care either way . 

The Nordstrom coverage was a masterclass in propaganda and one of the rare times the left and right clown news circuits Read from same script . I mean I get it ..Russia is no good and one of the more lousy, ruthless governments . But the idea they blew up their own pipeline was basically a litmus test to see if emotions >critical thinking ... they usually do when most folks aren’t feeling like doing the equivalent of a home assignment to figure something out . 

Should have stated it's a theory - I don't know either if it is true or not.  

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Just now, WhiteLawns said:

Any thoughts on today?

Majority of activity is going to be to our west and southwest, but we'll see hit-and-miss storms around today. Flash flooding could be a bit of an issue given weak shear and slow movement of storms. Strongest storms could produce some localized damaging wind gusts. Could see some nasty stuff down across SE PA/NJ/DE later on. 

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5 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Should have stated it's a theory - I don't know either if it is true or not.  

I mean most people are just left  throwing darts at stuff When they realize CNN  and FOX are basically political / corporate marketing and then There is alternative news that is just trying to get ratings all the same . So you can usually be a sheep or a nut . But generally following the money and who benefits is what I would lean on or checking out 

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Majority of activity is going to be to our west and southwest, but we'll see hit-and-miss storms around today. Flash flooding could be a bit of an issue given weak shear and slow movement of storms. Strongest storms could produce some localized damaging wind gusts. Could see some nasty stuff down across SE PA/NJ/DE later on. 

So the boring summer continues!

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks like above normal lows and below normal highs for much of SNE this week and a little beyond . Humid and lots of overcast . 
 

NNE seeing similar airmass should lean AN

We’ll be way above normal if the dews stay up.  Radiational cooling is baked into climo pretty good here locally at MVL, the day time maxes would have to be very low to off-set mins in the 60s.

The mins have a huge impact on us AN or BN.

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57 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

No idea if there is any truth to that , and sadly I can’t just dismiss that Option , but really don’t care either way . 

The Nordstrom coverage was a masterclass in propaganda and one of the rare times the left and right clown news circuits Read from same script . I mean I get it ..Russia is no good and one of the more lousy, ruthless governments . But the idea they blew up their own pipeline was basically a litmus test to see if emotions >critical thinking ... they usually do when most folks aren’t feeling like doing the equivalent of a home assignment to figure something out . 

That statement ( bold ) could be used a rubric for the general society pitfall caused by info-on-tap. 

It's an even deeper dive into off-topic ... but we really live in an era of paradox.  Easy of information lends eventually to indolence ( eventually...), and out the window goes the will to vet, leading to less/no real information actually succeeding transmission --> easy civility ...

Evolution leading to its own extinction may be rooted in some sort of mathematics, within which also contains some form of proof that (gee, ya think) that it is just like that everything in the universe: it is constrained by finite existence.  Perhaps the X-factor is as much an unknown (how it all goes down), as it is also ironically a certainty.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Can we bring the Russian stuff to OT or at least banter?

it's 76 of 70 here...

Not sure what the convective temp is -

Looks on sat like there's already deep convection moving up from the upper M/A. That may be related to on-going perturbation in the flow rather than in situ destabilization, tho. 

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3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

How often do we get severe on southerly flow? Seems like there is too much junk around for anything organized.

We're really in a crap spot with this system. Removed from the better dynamics and forcing and like you said...just too much junk around. 

A bit intrigued with tonight though with the strengthening LLJ and a little plume of steep lapse rates. 

IMO for tomorrow though, the marginal risk should be removed or even shifted much farther west. Looks like a warm bubble aloft and forcing seems quite weak tomorrow. 

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We're really in a crap spot with this system. Removed from the better dynamics and forcing and like you said...just too much junk around. 

A bit intrigued with tonight though with the strengthening LLJ and a little plume of steep lapse rates. 

IMO for tomorrow though, the marginal risk should be removed or even shifted much farther west. Looks like a warm bubble aloft and forcing seems quite weak tomorrow. 

The most intriguing thing is the 3am line the HRRR rips through.

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36 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We're really in a crap spot with this system. Removed from the better dynamics and forcing and like you said...just too much junk around. 

A bit intrigued with tonight though with the strengthening LLJ and a little plume of steep lapse rates. 

IMO for tomorrow though, the marginal risk should be removed or even shifted much farther west. Looks like a warm bubble aloft and forcing seems quite weak tomorrow. 

Wondering if the current activity here in the Hudson valley will take away from the severe potential later on. HRRR is saying no in the 14z run.

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2 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Wondering if the current activity here in the Hudson valley will take away from the severe potential later on. HRRR is saying no in the 14z run.

Yeah early crap like this can certainly screw up things later on...we know that very well :lol:

The key is going to be able to remove any CIN in the wake of this activity. Thankfully the airmass is pretty moist so it won't take much in the way of breaks of sun to make this happen. Have to watch how the lapse rates recover too...this activity will weaken them some, but models do increase them a bit later this afternoon. Shear increases as well. 

There is a very diffuse boundary though down your way with theta-e ridge in place so I would think there will be at least some isolated re-development this afternoon. 

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