STILL N OF PIKE Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 7 hours ago, cleetussnow said: The coup was a sham: Wagner forces moved out of the lines in the south -> toward Moscow -> then WEST toward KYIV and are now located north of KYIV. This movement of a very large and dangerous force was done quickly, unmolested, and informationally safe under the cover the 'rebellion.' I'll note here that the Wagner forces were not obliterated in an airstrike while they were sitting ducks on a highway. The movement was too easy. The idea that Putin is weak is propagated witlessly in the media and possibly within Western intelligence services (unless they are playing along to protect their own thinking). Rather Putin has moved a set piece in a masterstroke and is firmly in command of the situation. Did Ukraine fall for it? Are they prepared to defend KYIV? Did they pull reserves from the south to cover the flank during this crisis? Hmmm....time will tell. No idea if there is any truth to that , and sadly I can’t just dismiss that Option , but really don’t care either way ..thou in this case I don’t think that theory holds any water The Nordstrom coverage was a masterclass in propaganda and one of the rare times the left and right clown news circuits Read from same script . I mean I get it ..Russia is no good and one of the more lousy, ruthless governments . But the idea they blew up their own pipeline was basically a litmus test to see if emotions >critical thinking ... they usually do when most folks aren’t feeling like doing the equivalent of a home assignment to figure something out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: HRRR not impressed with tomorrow. Has a batch of early action center/northern sections and nothing south. Keeps everything west. Any thoughts on today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: No idea if there is any truth to that , and sadly I can’t just dismiss that Option , but really don’t care either way . The Nordstrom coverage was a masterclass in propaganda and one of the rare times the left and right clown news circuits Read from same script . I mean I get it ..Russia is no good and one of the more lousy, ruthless governments . But the idea they blew up their own pipeline was basically a litmus test to see if emotions >critical thinking ... they usually do when most folks aren’t feeling like doing the equivalent of a home assignment to figure something out . Should have stated it's a theory - I don't know either if it is true or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Just now, WhiteLawns said: Any thoughts on today? Majority of activity is going to be to our west and southwest, but we'll see hit-and-miss storms around today. Flash flooding could be a bit of an issue given weak shear and slow movement of storms. Strongest storms could produce some localized damaging wind gusts. Could see some nasty stuff down across SE PA/NJ/DE later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Should have stated it's a theory - I don't know either if it is true or not. I mean most people are just left throwing darts at stuff When they realize CNN and FOX are basically political / corporate marketing and then There is alternative news that is just trying to get ratings all the same . So you can usually be a sheep or a nut . But generally following the money and who benefits is what I would lean on or checking out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 The HRRR does have a cluster moving SW to NE across the region overnight. Could be some truth to that. Nose of nocturnal increase of the LLJ and a bit of a theta-e ridge over the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Majority of activity is going to be to our west and southwest, but we'll see hit-and-miss storms around today. Flash flooding could be a bit of an issue given weak shear and slow movement of storms. Strongest storms could produce some localized damaging wind gusts. Could see some nasty stuff down across SE PA/NJ/DE later on. So the boring summer continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Just now, WhiteLawns said: So the boring summer continues! Pretty much Unless you're lucky enough to be one of the hits and not misses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Was hoping for sun today are there any days this week that hold more promise for sunny skies or mid 80’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Looks like we may have some capping issues tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Looks like we may have some capping issues tomorrow When is there a day we don’t have issues? Frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: When is there a day we don’t have issues? Frustrating. yup... but tonight though could be pretty interesting. Could see some nasty storms if that cluster verifies tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: yup... but tonight though could be pretty interesting. Could see some nasty storms if that cluster verifies tonight. NWS Boston mentions this. An overnight light show would be appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Looks like above normal lows and below normal highs for much of SNE this week and a little beyond . Humid and lots of overcast . NNE seeing similar airmass should lean AN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Just now, Cyclone-68 said: NWS Boston mentions this. An overnight light show would be appreciated Always down for one of those. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: yup... but tonight though could be pretty interesting. Could see some nasty storms if that cluster verifies tonight. We pray. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Looks like above normal lows and below normal highs for much of SNE this week and a little beyond . Humid and lots of overcast . NNE seeing similar airmass should lean AN We’ll be way above normal if the dews stay up. Radiational cooling is baked into climo pretty good here locally at MVL, the day time maxes would have to be very low to off-set mins in the 60s. The mins have a huge impact on us AN or BN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 57 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: No idea if there is any truth to that , and sadly I can’t just dismiss that Option , but really don’t care either way . The Nordstrom coverage was a masterclass in propaganda and one of the rare times the left and right clown news circuits Read from same script . I mean I get it ..Russia is no good and one of the more lousy, ruthless governments . But the idea they blew up their own pipeline was basically a litmus test to see if emotions >critical thinking ... they usually do when most folks aren’t feeling like doing the equivalent of a home assignment to figure something out . That statement ( bold ) could be used a rubric for the general society pitfall caused by info-on-tap. It's an even deeper dive into off-topic ... but we really live in an era of paradox. Easy of information lends eventually to indolence ( eventually...), and out the window goes the will to vet, leading to less/no real information actually succeeding transmission --> easy civility ... Evolution leading to its own extinction may be rooted in some sort of mathematics, within which also contains some form of proof that (gee, ya think) that it is just like that everything in the universe: it is constrained by finite existence. Perhaps the X-factor is as much an unknown (how it all goes down), as it is also ironically a certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Blazing sun for now in CON. Let’s destabilize this trash. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Can we bring the Russian stuff to OT or at least banter? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Can we bring the Russian stuff to OT or at least banter? it's 76 of 70 here... Not sure what the convective temp is - Looks on sat like there's already deep convection moving up from the upper M/A. That may be related to on-going perturbation in the flow rather than in situ destabilization, tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 getting crispy around here. The brook down the street from my house has completely dried up. Didn’t happen until late July/early August last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 5.54" so far this month, Ground is saturated and won't be able to hold much more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: HRRR not impressed with tomorrow. Has a batch of early action center/northern sections and nothing south. Keeps everything west. How often do we get severe on southerly flow? Seems like there is too much junk around for anything organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Couldn't buy a -NAO this past winter, Now we can't get rid of one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: How often do we get severe on southerly flow? Seems like there is too much junk around for anything organized. We're really in a crap spot with this system. Removed from the better dynamics and forcing and like you said...just too much junk around. A bit intrigued with tonight though with the strengthening LLJ and a little plume of steep lapse rates. IMO for tomorrow though, the marginal risk should be removed or even shifted much farther west. Looks like a warm bubble aloft and forcing seems quite weak tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: We're really in a crap spot with this system. Removed from the better dynamics and forcing and like you said...just too much junk around. A bit intrigued with tonight though with the strengthening LLJ and a little plume of steep lapse rates. IMO for tomorrow though, the marginal risk should be removed or even shifted much farther west. Looks like a warm bubble aloft and forcing seems quite weak tomorrow. The most intriguing thing is the 3am line the HRRR rips through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: The most intriguing thing is the 3am line the HRRR rips through. Agreed. Always a bit skeptical with those but there does seem to be support for that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 36 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: We're really in a crap spot with this system. Removed from the better dynamics and forcing and like you said...just too much junk around. A bit intrigued with tonight though with the strengthening LLJ and a little plume of steep lapse rates. IMO for tomorrow though, the marginal risk should be removed or even shifted much farther west. Looks like a warm bubble aloft and forcing seems quite weak tomorrow. Wondering if the current activity here in the Hudson valley will take away from the severe potential later on. HRRR is saying no in the 14z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Wondering if the current activity here in the Hudson valley will take away from the severe potential later on. HRRR is saying no in the 14z run. Yeah early crap like this can certainly screw up things later on...we know that very well The key is going to be able to remove any CIN in the wake of this activity. Thankfully the airmass is pretty moist so it won't take much in the way of breaks of sun to make this happen. Have to watch how the lapse rates recover too...this activity will weaken them some, but models do increase them a bit later this afternoon. Shear increases as well. There is a very diffuse boundary though down your way with theta-e ridge in place so I would think there will be at least some isolated re-development this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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