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June 2023 Summer Begins


Damage In Tolland
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5 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This is definitely some of the worst I’ve seen for smoke.

ASOS are widespread 2 mile vis now.  Up here it still seems a mile at best.  It is very thick.

We missed the earlier smoke plume a few weeks ago.

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“This event is reminiscent of the Memorial Day Smoke Out event in 2010, but in some cases has become even worse with regards to air quality based on AQI estimates. Several airport sites are now indicating visibilities below 3 miles, and we have received reports of dense smoke in areas including the northern Champlain Valley and Northeastern Kingdom of Vermont. Unfortunately, this smoke will be stuck and even expand farther southward down the Champlain Valley through tonight.”

It was worse here than earlier this month when SNE got it bad. The pics are at the golf course this afternoon. Usually you have a nice view of the mountains off the first tee (top photo). Those trees are at the end of the first hole.  The sun was pretty red too. 

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50 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I wouldn't be putting that photo on your summer brochure.

Haha, yeah, not Chamber of Commerce weather… opposite of COC.

I’m here for the documentation of scenes and daily life around these mountains, today was something I haven’t seen yet.

Most of the previous smoke days over the past two decades were like 5-10 mile visibility haze.  Today was a legit 1-2 mile smoke out.

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The term was coined in recognition of the deep layer circulation, one that draws the air mass and it's quality from the Bahama general region.  I suppose that can vary some...whether it's more Gulf of Mexico, or biased NE of Bahama toward Bermuda - but it was always Bahama because that's the predominating/mean source-region.   

But further op ed/observations ... The description is not one that contains 'smoke' and or haze/bio-mist and/or industrial smogs combinations, etc, associated with 'HHH' weather from the continent. The air quality is cleansed down to just higher DP/WV.  The sky is sharply differentiable between tall CU turrets and blue purity. Vestigially if not outright, the soundings at point sites  along the EC coastal plain from the Mid Atlantic all the way up might even become like San Juan or Nassau.

Yesterday was not quite that, but it was in a quasi state - just based on what I observed leading. It got really close, but was cut off for several hours in the early morning because a weak area of frontalysis/low pressure slipped along LI and cut off the supply. But this latter circumstance was too weak to remove the air mass that had become entrenched from the previous period, which did draw the air mass from deep origin E of Florida.

In principle, it's whenever the circulation can identify a deep layer transport/source from the eastern Gulf/Florida/Bahama region, all the way N.  Technically it doesn't even parallel the eastern seaboard, because the flow is more S-N and ends up moving from subtropical/tropical regions back over land.  But for brevity it's EC parallel flow from the S. 

Lastly ... this is all in a world according to me stuff.  Folks can choose to adopt these phrases if they like...but once the reason/recognition is understood, it's like cataloguing synoptic circumstances for the purpose of brevity - which this post fails...I understand, but I'm just answer the question.    SW/"Sonoran" heat release. Bahama Blue. It's just a quick as "Montreal Express" for a particular type of cold, like that which we experience early February just this last winter. These are real identities that have reproducible weather types that can be visualized/associated with them,  etc...

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Not sure about every model that exists ...but as far as what's typically used the Euro/GFS/GGEM ( and NAM 32km has decent skill with convection < 30 hours) products all had QPF resembling convection, abruptly emerging on the charts by 18z and carrying on through 00z, when looking at the guidance from the previous day. 

Lot of words to say yes... haha.   But I'm not sure if it was focused in here or by forecasting efforts et al.  There's models, then there's social aspects - sometimes the two are less than married.

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On 6/24/2023 at 1:55 PM, cleetussnow said:

Nevermind the coup is over. 

The coup was a sham:

Wagner forces moved out of the lines in the south -> toward Moscow -> then WEST toward KYIV and are now located north of KYIV. This movement of a very large and dangerous force was done quickly, unmolested, and informationally safe under the cover the 'rebellion.' I'll note here that the Wagner forces were not obliterated in an airstrike while they were sitting ducks on a highway.  The movement was too easy.  

The idea that Putin is weak is propagated witlessly in the media and possibly within Western intelligence services (unless they are playing along to protect their own thinking).  

Rather Putin has moved a set piece in a masterstroke and is firmly in command of the situation.

Did Ukraine fall for it?  Are they prepared to defend KYIV?  Did they pull reserves from the south to cover the flank during this crisis?  Hmmm....time will tell.     

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