June 2023 Summer Begins

[Brian5671]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe Father's Day in SNE is salvageable? 

Further S and W one is, the better even tomorrow doesn't look all that wet here unless you're buying the Euro

[dryslot]

Its going to be wet for all saturday.

[powderfreak]

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They do, but lets get some beach weather. I don't need weeks of it, but I've had enough of the last 3 weeks or so. 

I can get on-board with that. Sometimes it sounds like you can’t do anything outside in summer unless it’s 6 weeks of 90/70, though that may be more Kev .

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Yeah tomorrow looks pretty much like a washout 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He's worse than me, but I need some warmth. Just happy it's coming for the time being. 

There has got to be a reason you aren’t mentioning to be pulling for 90f

Kids go somewhere longer the hotter it is ?

 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I can get on-board with that. Sometimes it sounds like you can’t do anything outside in summer unless it’s 6 weeks of 90/70, though that may be more Kev .

I mean around here, it's more beach activities vs hiking, so I lean warmer.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

There has got to be a reason you aren’t mentioning to be pulling for 90f

Kids go somewhere longer the hotter it is ?

They'll be at camp doing lots of stuff including the beach.

[weatherwiz]

and a tornado warning in SE PA. Hit me with a spiked bat like Glenn in the Walking Dead. Someone Neagen me

[Chrisrotary12]

Tomorrow looks lovely.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

You and Dryslot still with night sweats from that winter.  

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

You and Dryslot still with night sweats from that winter.  

 

4 minutes ago, tamarack said:

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Lava Rock]

3 hours ago, dryslot said:

To wet, Need to dry out after this weekend.

If it goes anything like 2009, grass be crying for its mama by mid-july

[Lava Rock]

46 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its going to be wet for all saturday.

Ch 6 says dry till ~10am, but NWS says rain from early morning. Trying to get a club ride in between 8-1030.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Didn't go to NJ...screw this and screw this pathetic summer. The heat signal will probably be fake and we'll probably fine a way to trough. But I hope to hell this heat verifies...I hope it gets so hot and so humid that EVERYONE melts when installing. I hope it's so freaking uncomfortable everyone complains. 

Multiple tor warnings down there. Surprised you didn’t give it a go.  

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Ch 6 says dry till ~10am, but NWS says rain from early morning. Trying to get a club ride in between 8-1030.

The earlier the better for you, Its not going to be a steady rainer but could be some heavier burst in showers.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Multiple tor warnings down there. Surprised you didn’t give it a go.  

The HRRR overnight started to trend like crap but we should have just gone. I also thought when looking at radar much earlier the initial activity may have held things back but it really strengthened. But we'll see what happens...I think the atmosphere is more stable once you near Trenton anyways so this stuff may come down quickly. But should have just gone anyways. 

[weatherwiz]

Getting lazy with this stuff...falling into a trap. Used to spend time fully assessing synoptics, instability, shear, soundings, etc then using simulated radars as a guidance tool...but lately it's become just running to simulated radars and using other stuff secondary. 

[Typhoon Tip]

That's a big heat, heat wave on these recent gfs runs. This 12z appears the warmest yet in the synoptic scaffold.   Near flawless arrival direction, transporting a SW released air mass  ... if anything you gotta go above MEX, and definitely go above the 2-meter graphic versions.   Seeing as the latter is already in the 96 ... 97 range at max impact, makes doing so a little bit of a challenge ...agreed. I mean I'm not willing to ever call 103's from this range - but cross that bridge.     

The indexes are also heavily in support of eastern mid latitude continent positive departures. The period between now and the 30th has really been signaled for well over 2 weeks.  I've been chirping about it here and there.  I recall frustrating a tad because the indices were flagging, but the operational runs were lagging - like entirely ...   As far as I can tell, it appears the operational runs waited, and the ensemble means were just too early, but now the two are coming into tandem... 20th - 26th ( negotiable ) may be what seems to have become a canonical event: the summer entry heat-wave ....before settling back into maintenance H   We'll see.

I'm just a "little" bit concerned about the "synergistic heat bomb" effect ...  We'll have to watch for that. Sending 20+C 850s over the top ... where it's been dry in Canada ( see wildfires ..), under the solstice sun...  these types of combinatory metrics, it gets a bit dicey when we consider the heat bomb effect going on globally.

[Saguaro]

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

Added to the sadness is that, in early January, Cool Spruce wondered whether that stalled retro-bomb might wreck winter - he was spot on.  Unfortunately, not long after that came the stroke that took him off the board and eventually (I assume) took his life.  We were kindred spirits about trees and forests.

I also remember him specifically mentioning that event in the same way. He was a good friend of mine for many years. Taught me interesting things about forestry that I never would have found out otherwise. I tried to keep in touch with him after the stroke but didn't have much success.

[CoastalWx]

Wiz you missed a good event. Congrats. 

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wiz you missed a good event. Congrats. 

Probably why it ended up being a good one because he didn't go, It would have wizzed down his leg if he was there.

[ineedsnow]

I wonder if something  subtropical forms off the Carolinas and heads out to sea.. 

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wiz you missed a good event. Congrats. 

unreal...what an absolutely terrible decision. 

Outside of what I mentioned earlier about becoming lazy, some of the higher end (though localized) events we have had (6/1/2011, 05/15/2018, 08/27/2020) have certainly changed my perspective about storms around here. Sometimes it's really hard to get excited without seeing an EML in place or steep lapse rates with a cold pool. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

unreal...what an absolutely terrible decision. 

Outside of what I mentioned earlier about becoming lazy, some of the higher end (though localized) events we have had (6/1/2011, 05/15/2018, 08/27/2020) have certainly changed my perspective about storms around here. Sometimes it's really hard to get excited without seeing an EML in place or steep lapse rates with a cold pool. 

Once you get to NYC on SW...you don't need the stars to align like you do in SNE. They have plenty of CAPE usually. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Once you get to NYC on SW...you don't need the stars to align like you do in SNE. They have plenty of CAPE usually. 

Oh well...hopefully if we can flip to a more hot/humid pattern we'll get some better chances. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Oh well...hopefully if we can flip to a more hot/humid pattern we'll get some better chances. 

Selling hot dogs and keeping score at LL?? What the heck is up with my man??? 

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I can get on-board with that. Sometimes it sounds like you can’t do anything outside in summer unless it’s 6 weeks of 90/70, though that may be more Kev .

Nephew( my body surf twin) coming down from Cali for 4 weeks with his family July 4th thru Aug 2nd. House on the beach halfway between Weekapaug and Misquamicut. Three things, guaranteed surf, hot weather and epic barbecue parties on the beach with big fire pits.  Will be my second home this summer.

[WxWatcher007]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

unreal...what an absolutely terrible decision. 

Outside of what I mentioned earlier about becoming lazy, some of the higher end (though localized) events we have had (6/1/2011, 05/15/2018, 08/27/2020) have certainly changed my perspective about storms around here. Sometimes it's really hard to get excited without seeing an EML in place or steep lapse rates with a cold pool. 

I almost think about the chases I missed as much as the ones I hit on. 

For every Florence there’s a Michael. For every Fiona there is an Ian.  

Honest to God, having a big in person event scheduled the day Ian made landfall may have been a contributing factor to me leaving my last job.  

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Oh well...hopefully if we can flip to a more hot/humid pattern we'll get some better chances. 

Aren’t we at or near peak climo for severe around here? I’m not really feeling bullish about the back half of storm season given the crap this far. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Tomorrow looks like a decent day in CT. Afternoon should be ok with dry and some sun 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I almost think about the chases I missed as much as the ones I hit on. 

For every Florence there’s a Michael. For every Fiona there is an Ian.  

Honest to God, having a big in person event scheduled the day Ian made landfall may have been a contributing factor to me leaving my last job.  

Aren’t we at or near peak climo for severe around here? I’m not really feeling bullish about the back half of storm season given the crap this far. 

I know in these parts July and Aug are more for peak here. Hell my best storm was at the end of Aug last year with wind damage.