Torch Tiger Posted June 5, 2023 Share Posted June 5, 2023 Very long-range 18z gfs op looks interesting with severe possibilities here, plus a Carib TC? Let's gooo 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 5, 2023 Author Share Posted June 5, 2023 On 6/5/2023 at 11:25 PM, Torch Tiger said: Very long-range 18z gfs op looks interesting with severe possibilities here, plus a Carib TC? Let's gooo Expand All guidance starts the furnace after 13-15th period. Deep Summer is just about upon us 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 5, 2023 Share Posted June 5, 2023 On 6/5/2023 at 11:29 PM, Damage In Tolland said: All guidance starts the furnace after 13-15th period. Deep Summer is just about upon us Expand Oh yeah, it's going to be an inferno. Just hope we can cash in around the 18th-20th with a monster severe outbreak 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 5, 2023 Share Posted June 5, 2023 On 6/5/2023 at 11:25 PM, Torch Tiger said: Very long-range 18z gfs op looks interesting with severe possibilities here, plus a Carib TC? Let's gooo Expand CAG season is probably a 2-3 weeks away in that region. Probably will have a window then. Not a lot of high end stuff tends to come from June CAGs, but the Caribbean is even more of a torch than usual. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 On 6/5/2023 at 11:44 PM, WxWatcher007 said: CAG season is probably a 2-3 weeks away in that region. Probably will have a window then. Not a lot of high end stuff tends to come from June CAGs, but the Caribbean is even more of a torch than usual. Expand Oh yeah I'm not being too scientific, just stating what the model showed. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 I don’t know, doesn’t seem like a hot look. Maybe some warmth and dews those. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 On 6/6/2023 at 12:06 AM, Torch Tiger said: Oh yeah I'm not being too scientific, just stating what the model showed. lol Expand I’m a tropical weenie. I’ll always try to get a little technical lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 On 6/6/2023 at 12:21 AM, CoastalWx said: I don’t know, doesn’t seem like a hot look. Maybe some warmth and dews those. Expand I keep saying it’s bound to happen eventually but last week we almost had a heat wave and maxed at 93F… so it’s been here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 On 6/5/2023 at 11:29 PM, Damage In Tolland said: All guidance starts the furnace after 13-15th period. Deep Summer is just about upon us Expand Always a few weeks away, just like deep winter was… 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 On 6/6/2023 at 12:23 AM, WxWatcher007 said: I’m a tropical weenie. I’ll always try to get a little technical lol. Expand Respect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 On 6/5/2023 at 11:29 PM, Damage In Tolland said: All guidance starts the furnace after 13-15th period. Deep Summer is just about upon us Expand Most furnaces started this past Saturday 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 There's a ton of smoke overhead this morning. The sun looks like the eye of Sauron. Very cool looking. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 Nice smoke sun this AM. Hopefully a few bangers later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 Extended says what heat. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 On 6/6/2023 at 11:25 AM, CoastalWx said: Extended says what heat. Expand It's all in the indices ... as far as I can tell. The operational runs and even the ensemble means ( which the indices are based upon, which is odd ) don't seem to reflect the former. They may given time. who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 6, 2023 Author Share Posted June 6, 2023 What a smoke show 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 On 6/6/2023 at 11:37 AM, Typhoon Tip said: It's all in the indices ... as far as I can tell. The operational runs and even the ensemble means ( which the indices are based upon, which is odd ) don't seem to reflect the former. They may given time. who knows Expand It seems like we can’t shake this Rockies ridge. But, troughing out west likely argues at some point pieces of heat break off or maybe eventually moves in later in the month? Next week seems to offer more rain chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 On 6/6/2023 at 11:39 AM, Damage In Tolland said: What a smoke show Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 6, 2023 Author Share Posted June 6, 2023 On 6/6/2023 at 11:42 AM, CoastalWx said: It seems like we can’t shake this Rockies ridge. But, troughing out west likely argues at some point pieces of heat break off or maybe eventually moves in later in the month? Next week seems to offer more rain chances. Expand Looks dewier next week too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 On 6/6/2023 at 11:42 AM, CoastalWx said: It seems like we can’t shake this Rockies ridge. But, troughing out west likely argues at some point pieces of heat break off or maybe eventually moves in later in the month? Next week seems to offer more rain chances. Expand I'd settle for any ridge in the east to satisfy the trough in the west ...like, at all - jesus. Not sure why but the large synoptic frame between the Dateline to west coast of N/A is flipped reverse around D5-7, yet the models maintain trough over the eastern Continent - like there's no forcing down stream? Not sure there ... so we're getting a PNA mode change toward a warmer signal ( with the EPO and NAO removed from contention) ... to somehow = unbalanced R-wave layout... = no warm up - okay. Seems like the models are less than organically processing to me at times. HAHA I'm wondering if/when the other shoe falls we get wholesale correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 So this is what metfan sees everyday when he looks up at the sky. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 On 6/6/2023 at 12:01 PM, dendrite said: So this is what metfan sees everyday when he looks up at the sky. Expand I have a question ... has anyone heard/read of how these fires up in Canada are set? I keep waiting to hear news break about that specific and nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 On 6/6/2023 at 12:13 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I have a question ... has anyone heard/read of how these fires up in Canada are set? I keep waiting to hear news break about that specific and nothing. Expand I don’t know. But I find it interesting that roads are still being plowed out in CA and western Canada is burning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 6, 2023 Author Share Posted June 6, 2023 On 6/6/2023 at 12:13 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I have a question ... has anyone heard/read of how these fires up in Canada are set? I keep waiting to hear news break about that specific and nothing. Expand Lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 Could smell the smoke in Greenfield this morning. Very hazy, like Kevin’s IPA’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 MSS visibility under 2 miles in smoke. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 On 6/6/2023 at 12:13 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I have a question ... has anyone heard/read of how these fires up in Canada are set? I keep waiting to hear news break about that specific and nothing. Expand I read most of the ones in Nova Scotia were from human activity. Probably the same with the ones now in Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 Let’s limit convection today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 On 6/6/2023 at 12:26 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Lightning Expand yeeeah... thought of that. But I went back and there's fires going off where there wasn't much history of that on satellite. I mean, tinder dry or not, background settings are not going to just spontaneously combust - so yeah, it has to be something. How about a 22 year old disenfranchised ugly rural Canadian hillbilly boys with gas cans and a manifold of dysfunctionally traumatic upbringing - heh I almost wonder if this eco terrorism. Haha. Unfortunately, we live in an era whence that needs to be considered. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 On 6/6/2023 at 12:48 PM, BrianW said: I read most of the ones in Nova Scotia were from human activity. Probably the same with the ones now in Quebec. Expand what I thought ... but that's also a broadly defined heading, 'human activity' like a deviant shit ball for a skull with a gas can counts under that header too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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