Damage In Tolland Posted May 30, 2023 Share Posted May 30, 2023 Will be another in an endless stretch of torches ? Looks like after the 10th.. the furnace really kicks in. Smoke , stein .normal to somewhat above first 10 days or so .. after that all hell may break loose. Let’s see how that all shakes out. 1 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 Well. Two days of torch followed by a cool and wet stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 Looks meh for the next week-10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Well. Two days of torch followed by a cool and wet stretch Cool is an understatement. After looking close that's snow on MWN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Cool is an understatement. After looking close that's snow on MWN Was it 2005 that it snowed there in late June/early July? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Was it 2005 that it snowed there in late June/early July? Seems right. Pool is 69, feels great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 19 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Well. Two days of torch followed by a cool and wet stretch Shades of 2009.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Seems right. Pool is 69, feels great Ours is still in swamp mode. Cover is off but not yet ready for prime time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Shades of 2009.... That would suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 52 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Shades of 2009.... Or early month in 2015, but lasting longer? June 2009 was without a drop thru the first 8 days. After that we had 8 weeks with only 7 days w/o precip, and 17.5" rain during that span. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 That 18z NAM run is wild. Easy too cold but crazy to look at. Look at the Saturday 2pm-8pm maximum temps lol. Saturday is 30 to 40 degrees colder than Friday. Then Saturday night it’s tickling upper 30s to low 40s in hills with 925mb temps of 1C… even some 0C just inland in Maine. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 I hope we have a widespread killing freeze 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: That 18z NAM run is wild. Easy too cold but crazy to look at. Look at the Saturday 2pm-8pm maximum temps lol. Saturday is 30 to 40 degrees colder than Friday. Then Saturday night it’s tickling upper 30s to low 40s in hills with 925mb temps of 1C… even some 0C just inland in Maine. Congrats MWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 Full moon goon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 18Z GFS is a disaster . Multiple energetic impulses sub 545 heights. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 18Z GFS is a disaster . Multiple energetic impulses sub 545 heights. That’s a crazy 24 hour turn around. Only in New England. 1pm Friday to 1pm Saturday. A/C to Heat on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 I wonder if we can get some cold pool hailers next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 What do you think the biggest 24 hr temperature change is for a summer month at say Boston? 70 degrees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 32 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: What do you think the biggest 24 hr temperature change is for a summer month at say Boston? 70 degrees? How would it go 70F though? 100F to 30F? I have to think like 50-55F? Maybe a Hundo to an Atlantic Maritime 45F? I feel like it would be a back door front hitting during some insane heater… just going torch to water temps over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said: What do you think the biggest 24 hr temperature change is for a summer month at say Boston? 70 degrees? 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 Noticed there's some pretty cool SST anomalies off of SE Canada and Atlantic costs just north of Gulf stream. So the backdoor fronts have merit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 Overnight low of 50° A little hot today but another stunning summer day on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 Still a lot of discrepancy with QPF this weekend. EPS soaks. Some models are more ern areas. I think Saturday could have dry periods, especially western areas, but it’s cloudy and chilly if it’s not raining. Shit period coming up. Friday thunder chances look good up north and then probably along back door somewhere in central MA to near CT/RI border. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Still a lot of discrepancy with QPF this weekend. EPS soaks. Some models are more ern areas. I think Saturday could have dry periods, especially western areas, but it’s cloudy and chilly if it’s not raining. Shit period coming up. Friday thunder chances look good up north and then probably along back door somewhere in central MA to near CT/RI border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 It's the 6z HRRR (although lots of support from mesos and globals) but it's pretty robust with development tomorrow (robust in terms of aerial coverage). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 9 hours ago, dendrite said: Surprisingly small in my opinion. Would have thought there would have been some 95F afternoon that gets slammed down to 40F at some point in time. Maybe Boston is a bad example. Maybe inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 Wow rare time where MET > MAV. FWIW NBM is 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 hmmm not sure what GFS MOS is smoking. GFS bufkit supports 90 or low 90's at BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 12 hours ago, powderfreak said: How would it go 70F though? 100F to 30F? I have to think like 50-55F? Maybe a Hundo to an Atlantic Maritime 45F? I feel like it would be a back door front hitting during some insane heater… just going torch to water temps over land. Wrt BD phenomenon... I did an under grad research into this ... decades ago, when the dinosaurs reined ... turns out, there's like an 'average whiplash' value that seldom exceeds 40 degrees as the maximum 24 hour SD. Basically ... 80 to 40 in April ... or 90 to 50 in summers. The frequency of d(T)/day = 40 ( between 35 and 45) was higher in February - April, than falls pretty quickly by the end of May. If going by that latter aspect, this is getting perhaps a little late for d(T)/day = -40 ... But the event in itself ( probably in the 32 to 38 range when reality pushes back on guidance ) has plenty of company. What I found interesting about that statistical review was the definitive tendency to 'move together' ... preferentially 30 F was the standard. If it was 90 and the BD came in, actually getting d(T)/day to exceed 30 was dropped off pretty abruptly - though there were occurrence. Then there is/was a large smear of in the 10 to 20. But it was pretty robust. 96 --> 66... 76 --> 46 Something about the antecedent synoptic wholesale structure tends to limit the correction extreme, regardless of time of year, too. That was as of the mid to late 1990s and combing through chart library and identifying BDs like any TOtally normal person would ...heh. There are some -45 outliers though... March 1998, and since graduating ... I recall also April 2003 approached 50. Anyway, the 06z GFS ... well, actually ... the last 6 cycles of that model, is showing the inevitable bump east with the diving impulse/500 mb structure, as of this most recent frame, keeping it east of Logan. Day ... day and half ago, it was still trying to send it into PA, which as we discussed yesterday was highly unusual and bizarre. The problem is... the 500 mb closing vortex is a cyclonic motion - yet the model was trying to move it, en masse, along an ANTIcyclonic curved value - like the ridge over the GL was steering it - yet, while deepening it? Last I checked, NVA tends to offset PVA I think this silliness is exposing bad physics in the models. They all were doing it, too. The Euro/GGEM ...etc. Now, they too are bumping east. But this all has the upshot of trending the weekend ordeal into a standard cool shot and strong BD event - which is like 'more sane' haha. We'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 Also ... just willing to point out. The models et al did that exact same thing ( if not to letter, in principle - ) about a week to week and half ago, when they tried to send a 500 mb severing trough component SW along the St L. Seaway, through western NY/PA ... I recall posting how strange that was to perform that kind of physically realized retrograde motion at that latitude. Eventually, it corrected E and we ended up with more of N-door/BD type frontal passage. I also would venture the catastrophe model outlook for MDW that we were dealing with the week before is also related to the same sort of tendency in this pattern residency. To be overtly too pessimistic in the D5 range. This thing this weekend held onto it a little longer; I suspect that's because the flow is actually showing coherent signs of seasonal break down with meanders and nebularity becoming more observable... It's like the models need more defined R-wave mechanics to operate the machinery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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