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June 2023 Summer Begins


Damage In Tolland
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That 18z NAM run is wild. Easy too cold but crazy to look at.

Look at the Saturday 2pm-8pm maximum temps lol.

030E3897-61CC-431C-9DE2-725E3C50F9B7.thumb.png.6150097b68c21bc37a64b0e6e01387de.png

Saturday is 30 to 40 degrees colder than Friday.

EB789074-DFD4-42F8-BF4F-112CF40C87B6.thumb.png.dae0e7522939cade4d68099e6e396c52.png

Then Saturday night it’s tickling upper 30s to low 40s in hills with 925mb temps of 1C… even some 0C just inland in Maine. :lol: 

33151ED8-4ABF-4D9C-9A7C-2EF85064CCAA.thumb.png.186dc304e39b8f829fbee9f0a3de6809.png

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

That 18z NAM run is wild. Easy too cold but crazy to look at.

Look at the Saturday 2pm-8pm maximum temps lol.

030E3897-61CC-431C-9DE2-725E3C50F9B7.thumb.png.6150097b68c21bc37a64b0e6e01387de.png

Saturday is 30 to 40 degrees colder than Friday.

EB789074-DFD4-42F8-BF4F-112CF40C87B6.thumb.png.dae0e7522939cade4d68099e6e396c52.png

Then Saturday night it’s tickling upper 30s to low 40s in hills with 925mb temps of 1C… even some 0C just inland in Maine. :lol: 

33151ED8-4ABF-4D9C-9A7C-2EF85064CCAA.thumb.png.186dc304e39b8f829fbee9f0a3de6809.png

Congrats MWN

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32 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

What do you think the biggest 24 hr temperature change is for a summer month at say Boston? 70 degrees?

How would it go 70F though?  100F to 30F?

I have to think like 50-55F?  Maybe a Hundo to an Atlantic Maritime 45F?

I feel like it would be a back door front hitting during some insane heater… just going torch to water temps over land.

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Still a lot of discrepancy with QPF this weekend. EPS soaks. Some models are more ern areas. I think Saturday could have dry periods, especially western areas, but it’s cloudy and chilly if it’s not raining. Shit period coming up.

Friday thunder chances look good up north and then probably along back door somewhere in central MA to near CT/RI border. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

 

Still a lot of discrepancy with QPF this weekend. EPS soaks. Some models are more ern areas. I think Saturday could have dry periods, especially western areas, but it’s cloudy and chilly if it’s not raining. Shit period coming up.

Friday thunder chances look good up north and then probably along back door somewhere in central MA to near CT/RI border. 

 

Screenshot_20230601_074745_Chrome.jpg

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12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

How would it go 70F though?  100F to 30F?

I have to think like 50-55F?  Maybe a Hundo to an Atlantic Maritime 45F?

I feel like it would be a back door front hitting during some insane heater… just going torch to water temps over land.

Wrt BD phenomenon...   I did an under grad research into this  ... decades ago, when the dinosaurs reined ... turns out, there's like an 'average whiplash' value that seldom exceeds 40 degrees as the maximum 24 hour SD.     Basically ... 80 to 40 in April ... or 90 to 50 in summers.   The frequency of d(T)/day = 40 ( between 35 and 45) was higher in February - April, than falls pretty quickly by the end of May.  

If going by that latter aspect, this is getting perhaps a little late for d(T)/day = -40 ...  But the event in itself ( probably in the 32 to 38 range when reality pushes back on guidance ) has plenty of company.  

What I found interesting about that statistical review was the definitive tendency to 'move together'  ... preferentially 30 F was the standard.  If it was 90 and the BD came in, actually getting d(T)/day to exceed 30 was dropped off pretty abruptly - though there were occurrence.  Then there is/was a large smear of in the 10 to 20. But it was pretty robust.  96 --> 66...  76 --> 46 Something about the antecedent synoptic wholesale structure tends to limit the correction extreme, regardless of time of year, too.

That was as of the mid to late 1990s and combing through chart library and identifying BDs like any TOtally normal person would ...heh.  There are some -45 outliers though... March 1998, and since graduating ... I recall also April 2003 approached 50. 

Anyway,  the 06z GFS ... well, actually ... the last 6 cycles of that model, is showing the inevitable bump east with the diving impulse/500 mb structure, as of this most recent frame, keeping it east of Logan.   Day ... day and half ago, it was still trying to send it into PA, which as we discussed yesterday was highly unusual and bizarre.  The problem is... the 500 mb closing vortex is a cyclonic motion - yet the model was trying to move it, en masse, along an ANTIcyclonic curved value - like the ridge over the GL was steering it - yet, while deepening it?   Last I checked, NVA tends to offset PVA 

I think this silliness is exposing bad physics in the models. They all were doing it, too.  The Euro/GGEM ...etc.   Now, they too are bumping east.  

But this all has the upshot of trending the weekend ordeal into a standard cool shot and strong BD event - which is like 'more sane' haha.  We'll see.

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Also ... just willing to point out. The models et al did that exact same thing ( if not to letter, in principle - ) about a week to week and half ago, when they tried to send a 500 mb severing trough component SW along the St L. Seaway, through western NY/PA ...  I recall posting how strange that was to perform that kind of physically realized retrograde motion at that latitude.   Eventually, it corrected E and we ended up with more of N-door/BD type frontal passage. 

I also would venture the catastrophe model outlook for MDW that we were dealing with the week before is also related to the same sort of tendency in this pattern residency.  To be overtly too pessimistic in the D5 range.   This thing this weekend held onto it a little longer;  I suspect that's because the flow is actually showing coherent signs of seasonal break down with meanders and nebularity becoming more observable...

It's like the models need more defined R-wave mechanics to operate the machinery.

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