June 2023

[Rtd208]

Pretty warm day out there but once again more sub 90 temps.

Hight for the day was 87 here.

Current temp 86/DP 66/RH 53%

Dewpoint slowly increasing

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Guess NWS has gone woke. No mention of Independence Day in their forecast.

I see it on mine

INDEPENDENCE DAY...Partly sunny. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent

[uofmiami]

43 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Guess NWS has gone woke. No mention of Independence Day in their forecast.

Point & Click doesn't show it but when you go to the zone forecasts it does show it.

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

noticing a stronger WAR trend on the models these past few days. this pattern certainly doesn't look like what we had most of june to me

Euro is more pessimistic but it still doesn't look as bad as June 

[donsutherland1]

Wildfire smoke in New York City this afternoon. The AQI remained in the 160s throughout the afternoon.

[donsutherland1]

June finished with a mean temperature of 70.0° in New York City. That was 2.0° below normal.

Temperatures will gradually warm toward seasonal levels during the first week of July.

Afterward, near to somewhat above normal readings will likely prevail through mid-month. The Desert Southwest will likely see its hottest temperatures so far this year during the weekend into early next week. As has been the case throughout June, extreme heat appears unlikely in the northern Mid-Atlantic region for the foreseeable future.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around June 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was +17.22 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.693 today.

On June 28 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.831 (RMM). The June 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.066 (RMM).

 

[doncat]

June at my station tied for 9th coolest in 46 years and coolest since 2009. Rainfall of 2.10" was about 2" below normal. 

[Roger Smith]

One thing to add to the historical summary, in 2021 the Pac NW and BC heat dome was at its worst on June 30, highs in southern BC and much of WA state, parts of OR and ID around 110 to 120 F. Where I live, it was 112 F which is crazy hot considering we are several thousand feet higher than places in TX and a lot further north, and matching their current heat records. The worst part of the heat dome was June 26 to July 3, 2021. We then had smoke episodes one of which was worse than what you're suffering from, by early August of 2021. 

 

[jm1220]

Red smoky sunset. 

[SACRUS]

 

6/30

 

New Brnswck: 87
EWR: 86
LGA: 86
TEB: 85
PHL: 84
TTN: 84
BLM: 84
NYC: 84
JFK: 82
ACY: 82
ISP: 81

[Wxoutlooksblog]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro is more pessimistic but it still doesn't look as bad as June 

I think it will be a little warmer than June but that's normally the case. I do not see the scenario that was shown on the 06Z GFS this morning actually happening when had the western ridge and WAR actually hooking up a situation that would probably dictate an extended heatwave. I think cold fronts are going to keep coming with lots of moist upper air disturbances in the flow off of the Pacific moving across the country. In short I think any hot weather during July will be short-lived interrupted either by a cold front or a soggy wet system moving in from the south or west. And as of now,  I do not see Central Park reaching 90 more than one or two times in the first two weeks of July and probably less. If we get there on Monday the 3rd there's a good chance of some very strong to severe storms to end it quickly.

WX/PT

[Roger Smith]

I believe May-June total rainfall at NYC (2.90") was third lowest in 155 tries, behind 1880 (1.76") and 1965 (2.85"). (I realize regional amounts are quite variable)

Next few dry May-June couplets were in 1993 (3.05"), 1885 (3.18"), 1964 (3.24"), 1899 (3.35"), 2020 (3.41"), 1949 (3.43" with only 0.02" June, driest month on record), 1986 (3.54") 1877 (3.75"), 1891 (3.93") and 1875 (4.05").

The wettest May-June was 1989 with 19.03", 2013 had 18.10" and 1972 had 17.69" in those two months.  

[LibertyBell]

On 6/30/2023 at 6:48 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Wildfire smoke in New York City this afternoon. The AQI remained in the 160s throughout the afternoon.

Anyone who says that air pollution has somehow "gone away" is sorely mistaken, it kills millions of people every year and shortens life, especially near areas where diesel trucks go (mostly urban areas) by 10 years on average.  Air pollution shortens life even more than smoking does.

The toxic smog we had earlier in June made me really sick.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 6/30/2023 at 8:45 PM, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I think it will be a little warmer than June but that's normally the case. I do not see the scenario that was shown on the 06Z GFS this morning actually happening when had the western ridge and WAR actually hooking up a situation that would probably dictate an extended heatwave. I think cold fronts are going to keep coming with lots of moist upper air disturbances in the flow off of the Pacific moving across the country. In short I think any hot weather during July will be short-lived interrupted either by a cold front or a soggy wet system moving in from the south or west. And as of now,  I do not see Central Park reaching 90 more than one or two times in the first two weeks of July and probably less. If we get there on Monday the 3rd there's a good chance of some very strong to severe storms to end it quickly.

WX/PT

Extended heatwaves are really nice and don't happen much anymore.  I love dry heat, not the humid wet stuff that makes me sick.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 6/30/2023 at 6:48 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Wildfire smoke in New York City this afternoon. The AQI remained in the 160s throughout the afternoon.

I have a question for you Don, how come the air quality wasn't this bad in August 1995 when we had all those awful fires close by?

This time it made me really sick and my blood pressure was around 190/115 during the worst of it.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I have a question for you Don, how come the air quality wasn't this bad in August 1995 when we had all those awful fires close by?

This time it made me really sick and my blood pressure was around 190/115 during the worst of it.

 

 

We didn’t get the worst of the smoke, as the wind directed it elsewhere. On June 7, the wind brought the thickest smoke to the NYC area and then Philadelphia and Washington the following day.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

We didn’t get the worst of the smoke, as the wind directed it elsewhere. On June 7, the wind brought the thickest smoke to the NYC area and then Philadelphia and Washington the following day.

I remember seeing satellite images back in August 1995 that showed the smoke but it was being blown offshore.  Most of the fires were east of us out in eastern Long Island so they went offshore.  I do remember seeing fires in NW NJ but they weren't as widespread as the Long Island fires.

 

[rclab]

41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Anyone who says that air pollution has somehow "gone away" is sorely mistaken, it kills millions of people every year and shortens life, especially near areas where diesel trucks go (mostly urban areas) by 10 years on average.  Air pollution shortens life even more than smoking does.

The toxic smog we had earlier in June made me really sick.

 

Liberty Bell could not have re-appeared on a better day. Please stay well, as always …

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Extended heatwaves are really nice and don't happen much anymore.  I love dry heat, not the humid wet stuff that makes me sick.

 

I was making a comment about a particular model run several days back. It was not a post as to whether or not extended heatwaves do or do not happen any more. I sometimes wonder if you even read the posts you think you're responding to or the context in which things are being said. Yes extended heatwaves will occur again in fact last year Central Park had 26 90+ days, not sure if you were around here or even keeping track. A few have been going for a very hot summer here. That was the subject matter. Not extended heatwaves. Thanks.

WX/PT

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I was making a comment about a particular model run several days back. It was not a post as to whether or not extended heatwaves do or do not happen any more. I sometimes wonder if you even read the posts you think you're responding to or the context in which things are being said. Yes extended heatwaves will occur again in fact last year Central Park had 26 90+ days, not sure if you were around here or even keeping track. A few have been going for a very hot summer here. That was the subject matter. Not extended heatwaves. Thanks.

WX/PT

No, by extended heatwaves, I have a specific definition of 7 or more consecutive days of 90+, which hasn't happened since the 90s from the records I keep.

I don't think the summer will be very hot either, for a number of reasons.  I don't believe it will be very wet either though (which is where you and I diverge.)

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, rclab said:

Liberty Bell could not have re-appeared on a better day. Please stay well, as always …

Thanks RClab, I hope you're doing well too!

 

[rclab]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks RClab, I hope you're doing well too!

 

Three cats, two dogs 4 bird feeders and assorted postage stamp urban wildlife keep me active in my 900 square foot, row house, green space. They also help keep my sense of humor intact. Stay well, as always ……

[Wxoutlooksblog]

All the ensembles and operational models today showing a major change in the pattern occurring over time over this week, next week, and beyond. Heights building in (WAR) from se to nw over time. Cold fronts from the nw being rendered impotent, stalling, washing out, maybe one day dewpoint relief, that's it. We are getting into a much hotter overall pattern favoring eventually an extended heatwave and the probability of summer 2023 ending up with over 15 90+ days, possibly double that number. We'll just have to wait watch and see how this unfolds but it appears the stranglehold of upper low pressure over the northwest Atlantic and eastern Canada on our overall pattern here in the northeast U.S. is about to be broken.

WX/PT