June 2023

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Could the high dews forecast for early July prop up overnight lows enough to compensate for BN highs?

In my opinion they may.  If July turns out above normal temp wise it would be because of overnight lows and not excessive or persistent above normal daytime highs.

[IrishRob17]

On 6/9/2023 at 10:23 AM, forkyfork said:

i miss the smoke. who wants to come with me to quebec with a bunch of matches 

Congrats

[winterwx21]

6 hours ago, nycwinter said:

kind of day where you want to open your windows and let fresh air in..

It felt good doing stuff outside this afternoon with the dewpoints in the high 50s. Much more comfortable. 

[doncat]

Smoke looks visible here now agl.

[lee59]

82-65 in the city today, another below normal day. Could June end up below 70 for an average. If so first time since 2009.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

82-65 in the city today, another below normal day. Could June end up below 70 for an average. If so first time since 2009.

Probably right at 70

[donsutherland1]

An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through the remainder of June. However, temperatures will gradually warm toward seasonal levels during the first week of July.

Afterward, near to somewhat above normal readings will likely prevail through mid-month. The Desert Southwest will likely see its hottest temperatures so far this year during the weekend into early next week. As has been the case throughout June, extreme heat appears unlikely in the northern Mid-Atlantic region for the foreseeable future.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around June 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was -0.35 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.753 today.

On June 27 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.073 (RMM). The June 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.334 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.0° (2.0° below normal).

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

There were a couple of 90 degree days on the ECMWF for next week on today's run we'll see if they're there tomorrow. The 3rd, 6th, and 7th.

WX/PT

[Roger Smith]

Coldest months of the 21st century compared to all-time (1869-2023) NYC data with ranks (list includes all below long-term median which is now 78th coldest or ties straddling 78th coldest-warmest in 155 years or 77th warmest-coldest July to Dec): 

Jan 2004 t8 coldest, 2003 25th coldest, 2009 28th, 2014 t34, 2015 t49, 2022 t53, 2000,2005 t66, 2018 71st coldest. 

Feb 2015 3rd coldest, 2007 22nd coldest, 2003 41st, 2014 t57. 2010 77th coldest. 

Mar 2014 t43 coldest, 2015 48th coldest, 2017 t55, 2005 59th, 2001 60th, 2013,2018 t68 coldest. 

Apr 2018 t45 coldest, 2003 t52, 2007 t60, 2020 t63, (2000 t75 median value, see note for July)

May 2003 t12 coldest, 2005 t18, 2008 t40, 2020 t49. 2002 t52, 2017 t63 coldest. 

June 2009 t9 coldest, 2003 19th, at 69.8 June 2023 would be t38, 2006,2012 t73, 2015 t77 (median) 

July 2009 8th coldest (2000 was t4th coldest but some would say 2000 is in the 20th century) 2001 t13, 2004 t32, 2007 t45, 2003 t60. 2021 t70, 2014 t72 coldest.

Aug 2008 t55 coldest (2000 was t28th coldest, see above) 2007,2016 t58, 2004 t64, 2014 t73 coldest. 

Sep 2006 t37 coldest (2000 was t29th coldest, see above) 2001 73rd coldest, 2003,2013 t75 coldest. 

Oct 2009 t34 coldest; 2003, 2008 t36 coldest; 2002 t40 coldest, (2004 t52, 2006 t57, 2022 69th, 2000 70th, 2011 t71st coldest.

Nov 2012, 2019 t31 coldest, 2018 t41st coldest, 2000,2013,2014 t59, 2007 t63, 2008 t74, 2002 t76 coldest (median)

Dec 2010 t35 coldest, 2017 t38 coldest, 2005 64th coldest, 2009 t72nd coldest, 2002 76th coldest (2000 t22 coldest, see note for July).

________________________

Probably the median value of 21st century months is around 50th warmest in the 155-year series, but even so, a healthy number of months have fallen below the overall median (now ranked 78th). On average 5 to 8 months out of 23 or so have been this cold. 

Note that June 2023 will likely be third coldest of the century but at t38 is around the start of the coldest quarter (or the colder half of the cold months). With urban heat island factored in, this was probably about the 28th coldest June. Several months including March, April, August, September, October and December have not had a significantly colder month than this June in relative terms to overall distribution.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

6/29

EWR: 85
New Brnswck: 85
TEB: 85
PHL: 85
BLM: 84
LGA: 83
TTN: 83
NYC: 82
JFK: 82
ACY: 81
ISP: 80

[lee59]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Probably right at 70

Yeah it doesn't look likely that it will finish below 70

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Tonight's run of the GFS and CMC little if any chance of 90 on Monday, slightly better chance Thursday the 6th or Friday the 7th. I still really believe we're getting to the 15th without any 90's at the Park for July.

WX/PT

 

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Tonight's run of the GFS and CMC little if any chance of 90 on Monday, slightly better chance Thursday the 6th or Friday the 7th. I still really believe we're getting to the 15th without any 90's at the Park for July.

WX/PT

 

Looks like a low grade heat wave elsewhere. Mostly 90-92 type stuff though very borderline for now. 

Not seeing a big heat surge for July yet

[Rtd208]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

[Snowlover11]

absolutely disgusting outside.  smoke, hazy, fog.

[CIK62]

The last day of June is averaging    78degs.(69/87) or +3.

Month to date is   69.8[-2.1].      June should end at    70.1[-1.7].

Plenty of signs that the first 2 weeks of July will be +1 to +3.

Reached 82 here yesterday at 3pm.

Today:  81-86, wind s., variable clouds, 70 tomorrow AM.

70*(85%RH) at 7am.      73* at 9am.    75* at 10am.     80* at Noon.      down to 79* at 1pm.     down to 77* at 3pm.     78* at 4pm.       79* at 6am.       72* at 9pm.

[JustinRP37]

I’m really hoping for a complete pattern change soon. This dreary pattern is getting to me. I wish we could send the storms to Canada where they really need the rain.

[nycwinter]

i like days like this with filtered sunshine because of the smoke it does not feel so bad considering this time of year..

[SACRUS]

75/ 66 P cloudy and smoke haze (smaze).  Dry and warm today and we continue a reprieve from the tropics.  July opens not too bad warm / humid and scattered late storms before a stormier Sun (7/2) and Mon (7/3).  When and where the sun is out it will warm or heat quickly with 850 temps >18c throughout the area.  Southerly flow and heat spell some strong soakers late Sun and Mon especially.   Storms and low pressure moving out by Fourth of July.  Warm and drier 7/5 - 7/8 as it looks now with next shot at 90s with hot edge of the TX/OK , Southern Plain heat into the areas >16c.  

 

Beyond : overall warm and humid and the western Atlantic ridge looming by and expanding west spells a longer warmer stretch.

 

[SACRUS]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like a low grade heat wave elsewhere. Mostly 90-92 type stuff though very borderline for now. 

Not seeing a big heat surge for July yet

wont take much with the furnace nearby.  Park is a jungle it will take 95-100 degree heat elsewhere to get the park to 90 (bad reference point in summer)

[jm1220]

Definitely a hazy look today and AQIs are in the 150s-160s. We smoke. 

[psv88]

53 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Definitely a hazy look today and AQIs are in the 150s-160s. We smoke. 

So sick of it!

[donsutherland1]

Wildfire smoke in the New York area.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 103 (2021) searing heat just 2 years ago
NYC: 99 (1964)
LGA: 100 (2021)

Lows:

 

EWR: 55 (1940)
NYC: 53 (1919)
LGA: 57 (1996)

 

Historical: 

 

1886 - The second destructive hurricane in nine days hit the Apalachicola-Tallahassee area. (David Ludlum)

 

1900: The combination of high winds and the presence of wooded fuel-filled cargo helped to spread fire on the Hoboken Docks in New Jersey. The fire began when cotton bales caught fire and spread to nearby volatile liquids. The fire killed at least 300 people and was seen in New York City.

1942 - The temperature at Portland, OR, hit 102 degrees, an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel)

1972 - The entire state of Pennsylvania was declared a disaster area as a result of the catastrophic flooding caused by Hurricane Agnes, which claimed 48 lives, and caused 2.1 billion dollars damage. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Hot weather prevailed in the Pacific Northwest, with readings above 100 degrees reported as far north as southern British Columbia. Yakima, WA, reported a record high of 100 degrees, while temperatures near the Washington coast hovered near 60 degrees all day. Thunderstorms prevailed from southwest Texas to New England. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 100 mph at Gettysburg, PA, killed one person. High winds and large hail caused more than five million dollars damage to property and crops in Lancaster County, PA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms in eastern Kansas drenched Worden with 12.21 inches of rain, and a wall of water two to four feet deep swept through Lone Star, KS, flooding every home in the town. Up to ten inches of rain was reported southeast of Callaway, NE. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 75 mph at Winfield, KS. Seventeen cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Duluth, MN, with a reading of 36 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Winnfield, LA, reported 22.52 inches of rain in three days, and more than thirty inches for the month, a record for June. Shreveport LA received a record 17.11 inches in June, with a total for the first six months of the year of 45.55 inches. Thunderstorms also helped produce record rainfall totals for the month of June of 13.12 inches at Birmingham AL, 14.66 inches at Oklahoma City, OK, 17.41 inches at Tallahassee FL, 9.97 inches at Lynchburg, VA, and more than 10.25 inches at Pittsburgh, PA. Pittsburgh had also experienced a record wet month of May. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1999: Mount Baker, Washington closed out a record snowfall season both for the United States and the verifiable world record as the seasonal total from July 1, 1998, to June 30, 1999, finished with 1,140 inches.

[BucksCO_PA]

Looking at Philadelphia quite a stark contrast to the recent trends at this point in the year.

• At PHL this will be the coolest June since 1985, depending on the high today will finish at 70.6 or 70.7 degrees.

• PHL has yet to record a 70 degree minimum at this point in the year. Over the entire 150yr POR the average date of the 1st 70 degree minimum is 6/10. Since 2000 that average date moves forward considerably to 5/30. It's a top 10 latest date on record at this point & likely the latest since 1983.

• It also appears likely that PHL will finish June with only (1) 90 degree day this year. Regardless if for some reason today hits 90 that will still represent the fewest 90 degree days at this point in the year since 1982. Below are a listing of the 27 years with 0-2 90 degree days thru June.

• The record low max of 66 degrees on 6/21 was the 1st June record low of any kind at PHL since the record low max of 67 degrees on 6/21/1999. 

[gravitylover]

4 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I’m really hoping for a complete pattern change soon. This dreary pattern is getting to me. I wish we could send the storms to Canada where they really need the rain.

I dunno, I think I like it more than 92 and humid with the AC running constantly. NYSEG certainly doesn't need the money.

 

[JustinRP37]

7 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I dunno, I think I like it more than 92 and humid with the AC running constantly. NYSEG certainly doesn't need the money.

 

I mean I wouldn't mind 70s and smoke free. Right now it seems our options are comfortable but dangerous smoke or humid and rainy. I'll take the humid and rainy over the smoke filled skies. My son's camp cancelled outdoor activities today because of the smoke. 

[forkyfork]

noticing a stronger WAR trend on the models these past few days. this pattern certainly doesn't look like what we had most of june to me

[STORMANLI]

0.21" in Seabreeze shower

[NorthShoreWx]

50 minutes ago, STORMANLI said:

0.21" in Seabreeze shower

That came and went very fast.  Not a drop here, but my wife and son were in Commack and said it poured on them.  Looks like it was the only shower in hundreds of miles.