uofmiami Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: I see the HRRR near surface smoke forecast graphics on Pivotal, but they only go out to 48 hours (every 6 hrs); is there any decent smoke forecast model that goes out maybe 5-7 days that is available on-line? Thanks. I just did a quick google search & came across the following link: https://tools.airfire.org/websky/v2/#status Has the GFS domain out to 120hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 4 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: I’m pretty invested at this point in seeing if we can actually score a cooler than normal summer (relatively speaking). I would have to think an eventual flip to our typical summer inferno is coming by mid July and is more likely than the alternative, but still I’m finding this pretty interesting. Especially with so much heat to our southwest. I think there is at least a 40% chance of finishing this summer a bit cooler than normal. I'm not sure at this point whether there is that typical mid July inferno this year at least not if this pattern continues. I think a day or two here and there of 86-91 degree warmth/heat is more likely this summer. I would think that whatever heat we would have if any August would probably be when most of it would occur. The current pattern is kinda locked in for now. WX/PT 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 Sky here reminds me of Sunday---with some blue to go with the cumulus congestus. Nothing happened here however. The Predicative Radar says nothing for the Boroughs in the next two hours either................ By the way: What is the AQI today? Governor warned of bad air Wed/Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 3 hours ago, SACRUS said: 1980 - The temperature at Wichita Falls, TX, soared to 117 degrees, their hottest reading of record. Daily highs were 110 degrees or above between the 24th of June and the 3rd of July. (The Weather Channel) 1980 was another year in which Texas was baking to start the summer. For 21 of the 30 days from 6/19 thru 7/18 the record highs at Dallas are from 1980. The stretch included 11 consecutive days from 6/23 thru 7/3 with record highs. Looking back at 1980 locally June was similar to this year temp wise. As the summer progressed July turned very warm compared to the averages at that time & Aug was a dry torch by any standard. It's the warmest AUG on record at Central Park & #3 for Philly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 Ominous sky in Hauppauge, wouldn’t be surprised if something pops here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I think there is at least a 40% chance of finishing this summer a bit cooler than normal. I'm not sure at this point whether there is that typical mid July inferno this year at least not if this pattern continues. I think a day or two here and there of 86-91 degree warmth/heat is more likely this summer. I would think that whatever heat we would have if any August would probably be when most of it would occur. The current pattern is kinda locked in for now. WX/PT Even if we stay in this current pattern we will be above normal. Overnight lows will run above to much above normal. While the story may not be daytime heat, it is a warmer than normal pattern because of overnight lows. The pattern is also showing some signs of breaking down. We aren't going to stay in this pattern for 4 straight months. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 Some cumulonimbus off to my northeast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 11 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: Some cumulonimbus off to my northeast Just saw that here in Melville. Random storm/shower that popped up on the sea breeze front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 I can hear the thunder all the way from Sunrise Hwy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 Got a direct hit from that storm. Some close strikes and heavy downpours. Probably about 0.25 in the bucket. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I think there is at least a 40% chance of finishing this summer a bit cooler than normal. I'm not sure at this point whether there is that typical mid July inferno this year at least not if this pattern continues. I think a day or two here and there of 86-91 degree warmth/heat is more likely this summer. I would think that whatever heat we would have if any August would probably be when most of it would occur. The current pattern is kinda locked in for now. WX/PT Thank you, I’ve really been enjoying your posts and analyses this spring / summer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 Smithtown LI - my weather station shows .62” from storms today. I’m out east in Port Jefferson and storms keep forming and cutting a little west of me here (into Setauket). Another one on way now. I know family has heavy rain further east into Shoreham area also a short while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 NWS Mt. Holly did damage surveys for Tornadoes that occurred on Monday in Northampton Cty, PA and Somerset Cty, NJ. I am attaching photos below of what I saw in the Northampton Cty. Survey area. The damage survey information is also shown. I saw two wheat fields with damage and took photos of the one with the more significant damage. As noted there was no other crop damage seen besides that in the wheat fields. The second one had a few small spots with the wheat knocked down. There are corn fields, soy fields, and stands of woods in the immediate vicinity. I did not see any evidence of broken branches, twigs, or leaves on those trees. Such is the fickleness of Mother Nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 13 minutes ago, bkviking said: Smithtown LI - my weather station shows .62” from storms today. In our east in Port Jefferson and storms keep forming and cutting a little west of me here (into Setauket). Another one on way now. I know family has heavy rain further east into Shoreham area also a short while ago. 0.72" from that cell here. Found the old milk crate we put recyclables washed down the street (was already empty, fortunately). The rainfall total from the prior 3 days was only 0.20", mostly at night. I just missed it all while driving back from Westchester County, but the traffic still sucked on the dry roads in the Bronx and Queens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: 0.72" from that cell here. Found the old milk crate we put recyclables washed down the street (was already empty, fortunately). The rainfall total from the prior 3 days was only 0.20", mostly at night. I just missed it all while driving back from Westchester County, but the traffic still sucked on the dry roads in the Bronx and Queens. We are well within range and live a few blocks from one another - so your reading corroborates with mine pretty well. Healthy drink today so I won’t be watering the herbs and plants . Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 Looks like sea breeze front setting up as I'm under blue sky and just to my North is dark. No rain here, at least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 Beautiful day out here. Temps upper 70's and low 80's and bright sunshine with a sea breeze. Cloudy this morning, but sunny all day with towering cumulonimbus clouds to my north. Almost a typical summertime day minus a couple degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 Islip right at 10th coolest June so far. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1982 64.5 0 2 1972 64.6 0 3 1979 64.8 0 - 1968 64.8 0 4 1985 65.4 0 5 2009 65.5 0 - 1965 65.5 0 6 2003 66.1 0 7 1992 66.3 0 - 1977 66.3 0 8 1964 66.5 0 9 1974 66.7 0 10 2023 66.8 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Islip right at 10th coolest June so far. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1982 64.5 0 2 1972 64.6 0 3 1979 64.8 0 - 1968 64.8 0 4 1985 65.4 0 5 2009 65.5 0 - 1965 65.5 0 6 2003 66.1 0 7 1992 66.3 0 - 1977 66.3 0 8 1964 66.5 0 9 1974 66.7 0 10 2023 66.8 3 Several of those years stick out as El Niño years. Is that majority ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 12 minutes ago, bkviking said: Several of those years stick out as El Niño years. Is that majority ? Nearly all were near the beginning or the end of El Niños. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 A few more solid downpours with this cluster. Probably closing in on 0.75 of rain today. Decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 6 hours ago, TriPol said: Any chance of lowering that dew point below 60? It's moderately uncomfortable without the AC. enjoy the brief window tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 44 minutes ago, forkyfork said: enjoy the brief window tomorrow When’s our next chance at flash flooding? The last few days have been interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 28, 2023 Author Share Posted June 28, 2023 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: When’s our next chance at flash flooding? The last few days have been interesting Only about a half inch thru the 4th on the gfs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 monday looks mildly interesting 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 Finally some showers/storms today east of the city on the sea breeze front. One did clip my backyard earlier but the best has been just south/east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 58 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Only about a half inch thru the 4th on the gfs Sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 Raining... again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 41 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Finally some showers/storms today east of the city on the sea breeze front. One did clip my backyard earlier but the best has been just south/east. Looks like my place in lynbrook did well. Where I grew up in south wantagh and is still my dads house has managed to miss every single rain event in the last week. I remember as a kid old (original buyers) saying it never rains in south wantagh in the summer. Only north of the southern state. Looks like that’s dead on accurate. Based on current water temps being close to what they were in the 60-80s during the summer. Moving forward Long Island as done well, including south wantagh once the water cracks 75. We had a record flash flood event about 10 years ago in august were we received about 6 inches in 2 hours. (Not the islip event) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now