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9 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Storms pretty much firing across the entire NYC metro west of the Hudson. The city and portions of LI should start to get in on some of the action soon.

At the moment there isn't anything on track to hit NYC/LI. The downpours in eastern Union are moving more north. Hopefully things will change later since NYC/LI hasn't had much luck during this stretch of rain chances, but the latest HRRR isn't very optimistic about much making it to NYC/LI for today/tonight. 

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25 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

At the moment there isn't anything on track to hit NYC/LI. The downpours in eastern Union are moving more north. Hopefully things will change later since NYC/LI hasn't had much luck during this stretch of rain chances, but the latest HRRR isn't very optimistic about much making it to NYC/LI for today/tonight. 

Agreed. Air mass is too stable along the coast. Not expecting any rain in SW Suffolk

theres a HWO by the SPC putting basically the western half of LI for marginal risk of severe TS. Ain’t happening 

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5 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Two questions, where are we at on # of 90 degree days relative to average for this date? Well below I’m assuming, we haven’t seen 90 since April yes? My home location is cooler, averaging 66F this June so far. Hit 43.2 as a monthly low on the 8th. 

Also what’s the tornadic risk for today? SPC has us in enhanced / slight with 2% tornado risk area which is significant, but I don’t have time to dig into the details or read the mesoscale at the moment. 

Are we talking discrete storms with chances for rotation or MCS / QLCS with embedded spinups for today?

For NYC, so far three days have hit 90 or higher, Apr 13, 14 and June 2. Plenty of years have had a lower total as of June 25. 

Twenty-two previous years have not recorded a 90 deg reading by June 25th (1869, 1877, 1878, 1886, 1887, 1897, 1901, 1902, 1903, 1911, 1916, 1917, 1926, 1928, 1935, 1958, 1960, 1972, 1982, 1985, 2014 and 2019). The lowest maximum to this date was 81F in 1916. Quite a few of the years shut out to 25th went on to record significant heat waves in July and/or August. The latest date for any year to first hit or break 90 was July 26, 1877 (92F) and 1902 had only one day at 90F all year (July 9). In 1901 by contrast, the next eight days (starting June 26) all broke 90 and July 1-2 hit 100F. 

Then there were 23 years with one day 90 or higher, most recently 2015 and 2020, and 36 years with only 2 days of 90 or higher by June 25. This year tied (at three days) with 24 other years. The average (1869 to 2023) is 3.0 and the more recent average (1991-2020) is also 3.0. The maximum  number was eleven days in 1991 while 1925 had ten; 1962 and 1988 had nine each. More recently 2013 and 2017 had five such days, the most since 2000 had six and 1994 had eight. 

 

 

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