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Stormlover74
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5 minutes ago, Jacob brooklyn said:

That's why summer is not all that bad because fall comes next. 

Know what I'm enjoying? Telling everyone who hates snow who says" I'm not complaining" when it fails to snow that "I'm not complaining" that it's cool and I'm saving on AC and avoiding heat rash. It could stay below 70 all freakin summer as far as I'm concerned.

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1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Weekend looking drier? What’s up with these models 

Models are pretty much irrelevant for what’s going on. Today was a complete bust obviously and from here on it’s likely the climo storms develop over the Hudson Valley/NJ and we get a few drops left over from what can survive east of the city. Drought continues/worsens, keep watering. 

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An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through the remainder of June.

Tomorrow will see additional showers and perhaps thunderstorms. It will turn milder with readings rising well into the 70s across much of the region. The unsettled weather will likely continue into the weekend.

Parts of Texas remain in the midst of an extreme heat event. High temperatures included:

Abilene: 94°
Austin: 94°
Brownsville: 98°
Corpus Christi: 100° (tied record set in 2017) ***Record 4th 100° June day***
Cotulla: 107° (old record: 106°, 2017)
Del Rio: 108° (old record: 106°, 1953) ***5th consecutive record high***
Houston: 97°
Junction: 101°
Laredo: 109° (old record: 107°, 1990, 1998, and 2017)
McAllen: 103°
San Angelo: 107° (tied record set in 1969)
San Antonio: 95°
Victoria: 99°
Zapata: 109° (old record: 107°, 1969 and 1980)

At present, there is little indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was -16.03 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.040 today.

On June 20 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.775 (RMM). The June 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.357 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.3° (1.5° below normal).

 

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1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Know what I'm enjoying? Telling everyone who hates snow who says" I'm not complaining" when it fails to snow that "I'm not complaining" that it's cool and I'm saving on AC and avoiding heat rash. It could stay below 70 all freakin summer as far as I'm concerned.

Well, below 80 anyway. This kinda takes the beach out of the picture, 80 at least opens that up. 

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I'm wondering if, once we get into July, if we were to take the January 2023 average temperature and compare it to the June 2023 average temperature, if the delta would be among the smallest in recorded NYC history.  Seems like, with a few exceptions of course,  the weather has been calling for the same light coat each morning, all year.

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16 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I'm wondering if, once we get into July, if we were to take the January 2023 average temperature and compare it to the June 2023 average temperature, if the delta would be among the smallest in recorded NYC history.  Seems like, with a few exceptions of course,  the weather has been calling for the same light coat each morning, all year.

Must be. June was only 26 degrees warmer than January. Average would be closer to 39

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2 hours ago, STORMANLI said:

Glad I watered garden. Only received .03" of -RA and -DZ.

As was the case during  last year's dry August, birds cleaned out the gutters looking for water.

If WPC has a better handle then maybe 2" + Sun night through Thurs night.:raining:

From the confluence brick wall to the Hudson River brick wall. 

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2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

From the confluence brick wall to the Hudson River brick wall. 

I tend to agree with a somewhat bullish forecast for showers and storms over most of the NYC Metro this weekend. With dew points slowly rising if the sun breaks out for just a little with the lift moving in the atmosphere should destabilize and showers and storms should pop. I think over time these shower and storms will affect the entire region but not necessarily inland areas at the same time as coastal areas. 

Also, I'm beginning to get a feeling we may actually see a day or two of heat interrupt this gloomy pattern sometime on or just after the July 4th weekend.

WX/PT

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The last 8 days of June are averaging    76degs.(67/85) or +1. {EURO is 5 degs. less and wetter}

Month to date is   68.7[-2.2].       June should end near   70.7[-1.1].

Reached 73 here yesterday.

Today:   72-76, wind e. to se., cloudy, Rain late, 68 tomorrow AM.

65*(92%RH) here at 7am{was 64 at 6am}.     67* at 9am.     69* at Noon.     71* at 1pm.      Reached 72* at 7pm.     Most of PM at 70.

 

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66 / 62 the progression from the So Cal Marine desert to the tropics (Florida style) has occurred.  Fri - Fri (6/30) overall southerly flow, humid, lots of clouds  warm and plenty of showers/storms some of which will be slow moving soakers.  Overall would expect >2 inches for most and some spots >5 inches in the 7 day period.  Warm 850s >16c on a southerly flow will warm quickly where and when there is sun temps could soar to the upper 80s perhaps a stray 90.   Focus on storms Sat (6/24) evening , Mon (6/26) evening and Wed (6/28).

 

Beyond there going into the holiday weekend Southern Rockies Plains and TX robust ridge releases pieces of the stronger heat and look a see a day to two of that here as flow goes more Westerly.  Still looks to remain humid, and potential stormy.  Will have to refine the fourth of July forecast.  Western Atlantic ridge moving west the first week. overall warm, humid and rain (storms) potential.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 

 

 

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7 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I tend to agree with a somewhat bullish forecast for showers and storms over most of the NYC Metro this weekend. With dew points slowly rising if the sun breaks out for just a little with the lift moving in the atmosphere should destabilize and showers and storms should pop. I think over time these shower and storms will affect the entire region but not necessarily inland areas at the same time as coastal areas. 

Also, I'm beginning to get a feeling we may actually see a day or two of heat interrupt this gloomy pattern sometime on or just after the July 4th weekend.

WX/PT

Agree on rain performing or exceeding  - usual exceeds on this type of prolonged southerly flow.  A few days in and flood watches will be the discussion with slow moving storms caught alof t in stagnant flow.  Think the 2nd or 3rd could be the hotter days as it looks now but models have been a bit poor beyond day 4/5.  Tendency is to have that weakness into the east until we get the W. atl Ridge to back in.

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Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 97 (1965)
NYC: 96 (1888)
LGA: 95 (1965)


Lows:


EWR: 51 (1992)
NYC: 49 (1918)
LGA: 53 (1940)

 

Historical:

 

1902 - The temperature at Volcano Springs, CA, soared to 129 degrees to set a June record for the U.S. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders)

1944 - Four tornadoes killed 153 persons and caused five million dollars damage in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Maryland. The tornadoes formed during the evening and moved southeast along parallel paths flattening everything in their way. The town of Shinnston WV was leveled, and was left with the majority of the casualities. Until that time it was believed that damaging tornadoes did not travel across mountainous terrain. (David Ludlum)

1957 - A few miles west of Fort Stockton TX, softball size hail injured 21 persons unable to find shelter, mostly farm laborers. Some livestock were killed. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A massive hailstorm hit eastern Colorado causing an estimated 60 to 70 million dollars damage. At La Junta, CO, hail as large as softballs caused 37 million dollars damage. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thirty-four cities reported record high temperatures for the date. The reading of 90 degrees at Bluefield, WV, equalled their record for the month of June. The record high of 104 degrees at Billings, MT, was their thirteenth of the month. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Six cities in the High Plains Region reported record low temperatures for the date, including Sheridan, WY, with a reading of 38 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms in the eastern U.S. deluged New Castle County, DE, with 2.5 inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary)

 

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Still feels chilly outside 

I think the next 90+ potential comes during the July 2nd-5th time-frame but that doesn't mean we'll definitely get there. But I do think we have a shot at upper 80s to lower 90s over that time. Initially it looks as though the winds might again be too southerly so honing in on and hoping for July 4th, 5th.

WX/PT

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5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Tropical downpours now

Just had a decent little downpour here, but too small/brief to give any meaningful rain. 

Hoping to get some heavy rain today or this weekend, but the activity is gonna be scattered so who knows. HRRR says most of the activity will stay west of our area today and tomorrow, but hopefully we'll get lucky. 

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