Brian5671 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 I have a feeling this is going to be one of those "where's all the rain" type things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 felt humid today even with dewpoints in the upper 50's been uncomfortable since we have not been accustomed to that this spring.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 Felt like summer today, high temperature here was 82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 41 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I have a feeling this is going to be one of those "where's all the rain" type things. i'm thinking there will be a band east of the main show with bustorama around it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 3K Nam does that-skunks NYC and dumps on E CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 12z euro very wet next week into the weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 12z euro very wet next week into the weekend makes sense given the cutoff lows. So far June has been a drier version of 2009 - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: makes sense given the cutoff lows. So far June has been a drier version of 2009 - Might be a big mid Atlantic winter coming 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 Today will likely prove to be the warmest day this week. High temperatures included: New York City: 82°; Newark: 85°; Philadelphia: 89°; and, Washington, DC: 91°. Across the Atlantic, London reached 31°C (88°F) for the second consecutive day. No prior year had more than one 31°C temperature through June 15th. An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of June. A system will bring a general 0.25"-0.75" rainfall with locally higher amounts tomorrow into Tuesday. Some areas could experience thunder. The latest ECMWF weeklies have backed off the development of sustained warmer than normal conditions after the second week of June. The warmth is delayed until late in the month, but that's a low-skill forecasting range. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was +10.54 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.484 today. On June 9 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.254 (RMM). The June 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.274 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 59% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.3° (0.7° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: makes sense given the cutoff lows. So far June has been a drier version of 2009 - Anything is big after 2022-23. I'm guessing (first guess) we'll get 10-20" of snow next winter. WX/PT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Nice I’m there right now, my 24th summer life guarding at jones beach. Today wasn’t nearly as nice a beach day as expected. Definitely some smoke in the air here when the sea breeze kicked in. Kudos to all the life guards. That is not an easy job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Nice I’m there right now, my 24th summer life guarding at jones beach. Today wasn’t nearly as nice a beach day as expected. Definitely some smoke in the air here when the sea breeze kicked in. What field? Son was at JB6, but switched over to RM3 this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 59 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Anything is big after 2022-23. I'm guessing (first guess) we'll get 10-20" of snow next winter. WX/PT 20 inches would seem like an ice age! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: makes sense given the cutoff lows. So far June has been a drier version of 2009 - This would work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 6/11 PHL: 89 TTN: 88 New Brnswck: 87 ACY: 87 EWR: 85 TEB: 84 LGA: 83 BLM: 82 NYC: 82 ISP: 78 JFK: 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 8 hours ago, forkyfork said: the main event should hold off til after 5 but we could get showers before then Ok thanks. So I should be OK for a good part of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 9 hours ago, Rmine1 said: What field? Son was at JB6, but switched over to RM3 this year Awesome! I work at field 4/central mall. It’s the place to be if you like action, which I do. He’s going to fall in love with RM. I’m just a weekender/part timer now. I live in Lynbrook and work in the city so it’s just too much extra commuting to switch to rm. Im hesitantly holding off on watering to see what unfolds later on campus. Anything less then .5” isn’t going to cut it. But the potential (euro) for a wet week would be my dream come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(64/81) or Normal. Reached 78 yesterday at 6pm. Today: 71-76, wind e., cloudy, rain 6pm-midnight. 65*(93%RH) here at 7am. 68* at 9am. 72* at Noon. Reached 74* at 12:30pm. 67* at 8:00pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 71 and muggy Dewpoint at 64. Mostly cloudy, although there could be a some sun poking through a bunch of times. Storms this afternoon and overnight into the overnight. 0.50 - 0.75 with some spots getting over an inch in the heaviest storms. Tue (6/13) clears and it is a gorgeous day low 80s. Wed more clouds / scattered storms as the ULL slowly lifts out of the northeast. Thu (6/15) looks like a carbon copy of Tue /low 80s and mainly sunny conditions. Fri (6/16) looking like a copy of Wed with clouds and scattered storms. The coming weekend looks split with a clear / sunny Sat (617) and more clouds and showers fathers day. Beyond there. Ridge flexes into the Rockies / S Plains and as t comes east a trough cuts off under the burgeoning ridge and it sets up ULL #4 with 5, 6 potentially lingering through 6/25. The period 6/19 - 6/25 looks similar to Memorial Day weekend only the cut looks poised to impact the N Mid Atlantic / Northeast as ridge / heat build into Canada. We'll see how it progresses but potentially onshore flow (how long could it go) and how much rain can reverse the dryness. We've seen similar progressions with near normal / cool Junes before the heats builds down to end June. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Awesome! I work at field 4/central mall. It’s the place to be if you like action, which I do. He’s going to fall in love with RM. I’m just a weekender/part timer now. I live in Lynbrook and work in the city so it’s just too much extra commuting to switch to rm. Im hesitantly holding off on watering to see what unfolds later on campus. Anything less then .5” isn’t going to cut it. But the potential (euro) for a wet week would be my dream come true. CM is nice. He had a crew of friends from Binghamton U that worked at 6. Everyone graduated this year, so most moved on. We live in brightwaters, so RM is perfect. agree, we need a few rounds of rain to find the spots that the sprinklers miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 Records: Highs: EWR: 97 (2017) NYC: 93 (2017) LGA: 96 (2017) Lows: EWR: 47 (1951) NYC: 48 (1979) LGA: 49 (1979) Historical: 1881 - Severe thunderstorms spawned more than half a dozen tornadoes in the Lower Missouri Valley. Five of the tornadoes touched down near Saint Joseph MO. In south central Kansas a tornado nearly wiped out the town of Floral. Hail and high winds struck Iowa and southern Minnesota. In Minnesota, Blue Earth City reported five inches of rain in one hour. (David Ludlum) 1915: An estimated F4 tornado moved northeast from northwest of Waterville, Iowa crossing the Mississippi River two miles south of Ferryville, Wisconsin. A man and his daughter were killed in one of three homes that were obliterated southwest of "Heytman," a small railroad station on the Mississippi River. 60 buildings and eight homes were destroyed in Wisconsin. This tornado caused approximately $200,000 in damage. In addition to this tornado, another estimated F4 tornado moved northeast across Fayette and Clayton Counties in northeast Iowa. One farm was devastated, the house and barn leveled. Heavy machinery was thrown 300 yards. Clothing was carried two miles. 1947 - A heavy wet snow blanketed much of southern and central Wyoming, and gave many places their heaviest and latest snow of record. Totals included 18.4 inches at Lander, 8.7 inches at Cheyenne, and 4.5 inches at Casper. (11th-12th) (The Weather Channel) 1948: The Columbia River Basin flood peaked on this date in the Northwest. The flood produced the highest water level in the basin since the flood there in 1894. The damage estimate for the 1948 flood was $101 million, and 75 lives were lost. 1969 - Record late season snows covered parts of Montana. Five inches was reported at Great Falls and east of Broadus. Billings, MT, tied their June record with lows of 32 degrees on the 12th and the 13th. (The Weather Channel) 1983 - The state of Utah was beseiged by floods and mudslides. Streets in downtown Salt Lake City were sandbagged and turned into rivers of relief. The town of Thistle was completely inundated as a mudslide made a natural dam. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced softball size hail around Fremont and Ames, and 3.5 inches of rain in less than one hour. Four and a half inches in less than an hour caused flooding around Ithica, NE. A tornado destroyed a mobile home near Broken Bow, NE, injuring both occupants. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Fifteen cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Asheville with a reading of 40 degrees. Drought conditions continued to intensify across the eastern half of the nation. Rainfall at Nashville, TN, was running 12.5 inches below normal. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Tennessee Valley to the Central Appalachians in the afternoon and evening, and produced severe weather in Oklahoma and Texas during the evening and night. Thunderstorms spawned ten tornadoes, and there were 164 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 100 mph at Amarillo, TX, and wind gusts to 110 mph at Denton TX. Hail three inches in diameter was reported at Tucumcari NM. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2005 - A tornado in Hammond, Wisconsin damaged 22 homes and produced $3.6 million in damage (Associated Press). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 my one hope for rain later is that the mesos are too far north with convection. the best cape is south of where they have the best rains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 Hoping to get at least a half inch today to give the gardens a good watering, but obviously there's reason to be concerned. Some models continue to show the more significant rain staying to the north and west. Convection is hard to predict though, so we'll see. At least we have another chance on wednesday. Hopefully this will be the week that we finally get some desperately needed rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 12, 2023 Author Share Posted June 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Hoping to get at least a half inch today to give the gardens a good watering, but obviously there's reason to be concerned. Some models continue to show the more significant rain staying to the north and west. Convection is hard to predict though, so we'll see. At least we have another chance on wednesday. Hopefully this will be the week that we finally get some desperately needed rain. Rgem is nice for our area vs the nam which has very little 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 20 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Hoping to get at least a half inch today to give the gardens a good watering, but obviously there's reason to be concerned. Some models continue to show the more significant rain staying to the north and west. Convection is hard to predict though, so we'll see. At least we have another chance on wednesday. Hopefully this will be the week that we finally get some desperately needed rain. Yes, there are going to be winners and losers today for sure. Convection is hard to predict so I'm hoping I come out on the wetter side of things being more west. Just remember how this event looked 7-10 days ago. So much wetter. Totals were always going to depend on track and placement of upper low and with the track of the upper low much more north and west than what was depicted 7-10 days ago we're going to struggle hard to get an area wide decent rain event today. Hoping mid and late week trends hold for a wetter solution but there is need for caution as it is many days out. I'd rather have a chance though rather than have nothing on the horizon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Rgem is nice for our area vs the nam which has very little Yeah RGEM has been consistent in getting more significant rain amounts further to the east. Hopefully it will be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: my one hope for rain later is that the mesos are too far north with convection. the best cape is south of where they have the best rains Convection development sw of phl currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 12, 2023 Author Share Posted June 12, 2023 23 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Convection development sw of phl currently Looks great for eastern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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