June 2023

[SACRUS]

71 and mostly sunny.  Another splendid weekend on tap but rainfall needed.  Upper 70s and low 80s today and with smoke out of the way and full sunshine we'll see if the recent dryness allows highs to exceed guidance.   Sun (6/11) mid to perhaps upper 80s.

Low cuts off under the building ridge (#3 since May with tendency / weakness into the NE).  First meaningful / measurable  rain comes later Mon (6/13) into Tue (6/14) with a general 0.5 - 075 / 1.00 inches for most.   The ULL lifts through Wed (6/15) and near normal temps for the rest of the week.

Beyond there we'll see if we get a fourth cut off and onshore tendency between 6/16 and 6/19.

 

Ridge and heat building into the Rockies / Plains and GL by the last 10 days of june and we'll see pieces eject east.  A more typical progression from the past Junes 2015,16,18 perhaps.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 99 (2008)
NYC: 96 (2008)
LGA: 100 (2008)

Lows:

EWR: 49 (1972)
NYC: 49 (1972)
LGA: 48 (1972)

 

Historical:

 

1752 - It is believed that this was the day Benjamin Franklin narrowly missed electrocution while flying a kite during a thunderstorm to determine if lightning is related to electricity. (David Ludlum)

1957 - A dust devil at North Yarmouth, ME, lifted a 600 to 1000 pound chicken shelter into the air and carried it 25 feet. It landed upright with only slight damage. It is unknown whether any eggs were scrambled. (The Weather Channel)

1958 - A woman was sucked through the window of her home in El Dorado, KS, by a powerful tornado, and was carried sixty feet away. Beside her was found a broken phonograph record entitled Stormy Weather . (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced 2 to 4 inch rains in southern Texas. Two and a half inches of rain at Juno TX caused flooding and closed a nearby highway. Flooding on the northwest side of San Antonio claimed one life as a boy was swept into a culvert. Thunderstorms in the north central U.S. produced an inch and a half of small hail at Monida Pass MT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Three dozen cities, mostly in the eastern U.S., reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins, WV, with a reading of 33 degrees. Unseasonably hot weather continued in the Northern High Plains Region. The record high of 105 degeees at Williston, ND, was their seventh in eight days. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather through the day and night across much of the southern half of the Great Plains Region. Thunderstorms spawned 14 tornadoes, and there were 142 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Hail three inches in diameter caused three millions dollars damage at Carlsbad, NM. Hail four inches in diameter was reported at Estelline TX and Stinnett, TX. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 80 mph at Odessa TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1997: Flash Flooding occurred in many locations in Mississippi. Highway 80 and many other streets were flooded in and around Vicksburg. Water engulfed one person's car, but the person was rescued. This event caused $300,000 in property damages. Over 6 inches of rain fell in Lexington in a little over 3 hours. The torrential rains caused Bear Creek to overflow and flood much of the town of Lexington. 45 businesses were affected by the flooding and 30 of these suffered major losses. As many as 300 homes had water damage. This event caused 10 million dollars in property damages. Portions of Jones County experienced flash flooding as 3 inches of rain fell in just 1.5 hours over saturated ground.

[Rjay]

Beautiful day

[Big Jims Videos]

Spectacular weekend at the beaches. Finally.  

[Stormlover74]

Very light shower. Looks like a heavier downpour over Middlesex

@winterwx21

[winterwx21]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Very light shower. Looks like a heavier downpour over Middlesex

@winterwx21

The heavy downpour missed me just a couple miles to the south. Just a moderate shower here that wasn't enough to water anything. Hopefully we'll get a decent soaking on monday like most models show. 

[doncat]

Well did break the 19 day stretch with no measurable rain with 0.03".

[SACRUS]

 

6/10

 

ACY: 83
PHL: 83
EWR: 83
TTN: 82
New Brnswck: 82
JFK: 80
BLM: 79
TEB: 79
LGA: 78
NYC: 78
ISP: 76

[JustinRP37]

6 hours ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Spectacular weekend at the beaches. Finally.  

At the beaches yes, but that water… naw too cold. 

[donsutherland1]

An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least mid-month and likely beyond it.

The generally dry weather will continue with perhaps a few showers or thundershowers through tomorrow. Tomorrow will likely be the warmest day of the week with widespread readings in the 80s. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely Monday into Tuesday.

The latest ECMWF weeklies have backed off the development of sustained warmer than normal conditions after the second week of June. The warmth is delayed until late in the month, but that's a low-skill forecasting range.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was +13.50 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.987 today.

On June 8 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.277 (RMM). The June 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.593 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.4° (0.6° below normal).

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

What we're looking at here is temperatures gradually warming up over time but a pattern closer to winter 1960-61 than any pattern we've ever  seen during a summer. Maybe a Donna look-alike will come up the coast.

WX/PT

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    72degs.(64/82) or Normal.

Reached 78 here yesterday at 4pm.

Today:   80-85, wind w. to s., increasing  clouds, 67 tomorrow AM.

66*(75%RH) here at 7am.     67* at 8am.     68* at 9am.      70* at 10am.      73* at Noon.      70* at 4pm.    Reached  78* at 6pm.     69* at midnight.

[SACRUS]

66/57 and a SSW wind with partly cloudy skies and a warmer  with highs in the  low perhaps mid 80s depending on clouds arrival.   ULL #3 is cutting off over the Great Lakes and will slowly progress east over the next 5 days.  A low with in the cut off torugh will push through later Mon (6/12) and Tue (6/13) bringing a widespread .50 - 0.75 or more rain to the area.  First meaningful widespread rain since May 20th (outside the isolated storms last Tue).  Overall near normal the ret of the week with highs upper 70s / near 80 Wed (6/14) and low 80s Thu (6/15).  Chances for clods and scattered showers storms Wed.  Cut off lifts out by the end of the week.

Beyond there the Euro flattens the flow and warms it up gradually by fathers day (6/18) into the following week.   We'll see if the weakness and tendency for cut off into the east shifts more north.

Strong ridge and heat build into the Rockies and S plains and pieces ejecting east the final 9 - 10 days of June.  GFS and ECM control had some su tropical in the way beyond.  

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 96 (2000)
NYC: 95 (1973)
LGA: 96 (1984)

Lows:

 

EWR: 46 (1980)
NYC: 46 (1972)
LGA: 46 (1972)

Historical:

 

1842 - A late season snowstorm struck New England. Snow fell during the morning and early afternoon, accumulating to a depth of ten to twelve inches at Irasburg VT. Berlin NH was blanketed with eleven inches of snow during the day. Snow whitened the higher peaks of the Appalachians as far south as Maryland. (David Ludlum)

 

1842: A late-season snowstorm struck New England. Snow fell during the morning and early afternoon, accumulating to a depth of ten to twelve inches at Irasburg, Vermont. Berlin, New Hampshire was blanketed with eleven inches of snow during the day. Snow whitened the higher peaks of the Appalachians as far south as Maryland. The latest date for the occurrence of a general snowstorm in our period over northern New England and northern New York came in 1842 on the morning of 11 June. Zadock Thompson, a professor of natural history and the Queen City's longtime weatherman, commented: "Snow during the forenoon's boards whitened and the mountains as white as in winter."

1877 - The temperature at Los Angeles, CA, reached 112 degrees during a heatwave. It would have been the all-time record for Los Angeles but official records did not begin until twenty days later. (The Weather Channel)

1972 - Heavy showers brought 1.64 inches of rain to Phoenix AZ, a record for the month of June. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - South Texas endured another day of torrential rains. Up to twelve inches of rain drenched Harris County, and nearly ten inches soaked Luce Bayou, mainly during the afternoon hours. Thunderstorm rains left seven feet of water over Highway 189 in northern Val Verde County. Flooding caused nine million dollars damage in Real County. A thunderstorm at Perryton, TX, produced golf ball size hail and 70 mph winds, and spawned a tornado which struck a mobile killing one person and injuring the other four occupants. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thirty cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including El Dorado, AR, with a reading of 48 degrees. Canaan Valley WV and Thomas WV dipped to 30 degrees. Flagstaff AZ was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 30 degrees. Coolidge, just 180 miles away, was the hot spot in the nation with an afternoon high of 105 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central and southeastern U.S. during the day and night. Thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, including one which tore the roof off a restaurant at Bee Branch, AR, injuring six persons. The tornado tossed one car into the restaurant, and another car over it. Temperatures soared into the 90s across much of Florida. Lakeland reported a record high of 99 degrees for the second day in a row. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1990: One of the most expensive hailstorms in U.S. history occurred as $625 million of damage was caused along the Colorado Front Range from Colorado Springs to Estes Park. Golf to baseball sized hail fell along with heavy rain. 60 people were injured in the storm.

 

[uofmiami]

 

[Snowlover11]

we could use a tropical system 

[forkyfork]

monday comes down to bands of convection which are always annoying to figure out in advance 

[MANDA]

5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

monday comes down to bands of convection which are always annoying to figure out in advance 

Yep.  Also means there will be winners and losers as far as totals go!  Seems the further east you go the lesser the chances at meaningful totals, IMO.

Anything less than .50" at my location will be a fail.

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Yep.  Also means there will be winners and losers as far as totals go!  Seems the further east you go the lesser the chances at meaningful totals, IMO.

Anything less than .50" at my location will be a fail.

RGEM just came in looking great, but HRRR says the significant rain will stay to the northwest. As Forky said this is a tough one to predict. I'm hoping tomorrow won't be a disappointment since we're in desperate need of rain. 

[Wannabehippie]

I went to Jones beach yesterday. Got there a little after low tide, so the water line was low down the beach. Nice breeze, temps in the 70s. I love listening to the waves crash in.

 

[allgame830]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

monday comes down to bands of convection which are always annoying to figure out in advance 

Anyway to say when approx. the rain may start? Asking because I am painting the exterior of a house. 

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

Anyway to say when approx. the rain may start? Asking because I am painting the exterior of a house. 

the main event should hold off til after 5 but we could get showers before then

[SACRUS]

Made it to 88 ahead of the clouds.  COuld see more breaks between 3 - 5pm

 

 

[dWave]

It hadn't been as sunny as I thought it'd be today. Hazy skies most the time. Is some smoke pushing back in or regular humid summer day haze/clouds?

79/dew 61. Still struggling to 80, forecasted 86 look tough.

[Stormlover74]

12 minutes ago, dWave said:

It hadn't been as sunny as I thought it'd be today. Hazy skies most the time. Is some smoke pushing back in or regular humid summer day haze/clouds?

79/dew 61. Still struggling to 80, forecasted 86 look tough.

I could've sworn it smelled like smoke this morning but probably just my imagination 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Heights building but no heatwave with an easterly wind.

WX/PT

[TWCCraig]

39 minutes ago, dWave said:

It hadn't been as sunny as I thought it'd be today. Hazy skies most the time. Is some smoke pushing back in or regular humid summer day haze/clouds?

79/dew 61. Still struggling to 80, forecasted 86 look tough.

It's mostly mid to high level clouds, but there still is some smoke aloft which is probably promoting more clouds at those levels with the additional condensation nuclei.

There is also a small amount of smoke near the surface still

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

I went to Jones beach yesterday. Got there a little after low tide, so the water line was low down the beach. Nice breeze, temps in the 70s. I love listening to the waves crash in.

 

Nice I’m there right now, my 24th summer life guarding at jones beach. Today wasn’t nearly as nice a beach day as expected. Definitely some smoke in the air here when the sea breeze kicked in. 

[jm1220]

33 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Heights building but no heatwave with an easterly wind.

WX/PT

Over the top heat is the norm the last few summers. Bermuda High keeps getting displaced 300+ miles north so we get S or SE onshore wind vs SW. Meanwhile Quebec roasts where the fires are starting up. 

[psv88]

83 today in Nw Suffolk. Was in Long Beach earlier and was a cool 71