June 2023

[SACRUS]

 

63 and clear for now.  Looks to cloud up later today with some scattered showers possible but not widespread..  Trough and subsequent (#3) ULL/cut off lift out and flow goes around to the SW (westerly) pushing us back towards to normal.   With enough sun Sunday (6/11) and Mon (6/12) could over perform mid / upper 80s in the warm spots. 

Next ULL cuts off (#4) under the advancing expansion of the ridge 6/13 - 6/17 into the Great Lakes and slowly moves into the northeast.  Southerly flow could deliver meaningful rain in the period Tue (6/13) and later in the week.    Clouds look to be nearby but any clearling will see a warmer more muggy result.

Beyond there ridging is moving east but a persistent weakness into the east coast will continue the tendency to cut off ULL underneath the ridge.  

Ridging looks to potentially build towards the final 8 - 9 days of the month.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 102 (2011) earliest 100 degree reading
NYC: 97 (1993)
LGA: 99 (2008)


Lows:

EWR: 47 (1957)
NYC: 47 (1980)
LGA: 49 (1980)

 

Historical:

 

1953 - A tornado hit the town of Worcester MA killing ninety persons. The northeastern states usually remain free of destructive tornadoes, however in this case a low pressure system, responsible for producing severe thunderstorms in Michigan and Ohio the previous day, brought severe weather to New Hampshire and central Massachusetts. The tornado, up to a mile in width at times, tracked 46 miles through Worcester County. It mangled steel towers built to withstand winds of 375 mph. Debris from the tornado fell in the Boston area, and adjacent Atlantic Ocea. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1966: Hurricane Alma made landfall over the eastern Florida panhandle becoming the earliest hurricane to make landfall on the United States mainland.

1972 - A cloudburst along the eastern slopes of the Black Hills of South Dakota produced as much as 14 inches of rain resulting in the Rapid City flash flood disaster. The rains, which fell in about four hours time, caused the Canyon Lake Dam to collapse. A wall of water swept through the city drowning 237 persons, and causing more than 100 million dollars property damage. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Lightning struck Tire Mountain near Denver CO, destroying two million tires out of a huge pile of six million tires. Thunderstorms spawned three tornadoes around Denver, and a man was killed at Conifer CO when strong thunderstorm winds lifted up a porch and dropped it on him. A thunderstorm near Compton MD produced two inch hail, and high winds which destroyed twenty barns and ten houses injuring five persons. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from North Carolina to the Central Gulf Coast Region. Hail in North Carolina caused more than five million dollars damage to property, and more than sixty million dollars damage to crops. Hail three and a half inches in diameter was reported at New Bern NC. Thunderstorms in the Central High Plains produced eighteen inches of hail at Fountain CO. The temperature at Del Rio TX soared to an all-time record high of 112 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Severe weather abated for a date, however, showers and thunderstorms continued to drench the eastern U.S. with torrential rains. Milton, FL, was deluged with 15.47 inches in 24 hours. Record heat and prolonged drought in south central Texas left salt deposits on power lines and insulators near the coast, and when nighttime dew caused arcing, the city of Brownsville was plunged into darkness. (The National Weather Summary)

[forkyfork]

i miss the smoke. who wants to come with me to quebec with a bunch of matches 

[psv88]

AQI is 20 now. She’s done 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I'm a little skeptical that the cool weather pattern is going to change before the last two days of June or even early or mid July.

WX/PT

[nycwinter]

the sun is bright again the air is fresh back to boring weather...

[Wxoutlooksblog]

19 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I'm a little skeptical that the cool weather pattern is going to change before the last two days of June or even early or mid July.

WX/PT

When the models indicated a change to much warmer/much colder, building ridge, deepening trough and kept postponing it usually never happened. This needs to be watched. It is not impossible that we are in the beginnings of cool summer from beginning to end with only a few isolated hot days and NO prolonged heat or even warmth. We've had these before--1996,1997, 2004, etc.

WX/PT

[Picard]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

AQI is 20 now. She’s done 

Don't jinx it.  None the less, the air is very pleasant today.

[rclab]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

i miss the smoke. who wants to come with me to quebec with a bunch of matches 

Perhaps, forky, you shouldn’t deny yourself. Head up that way on your own, perch yourself near the top of one of the extra dry pines, in lieu of matches bring an extra length metal rod and wait patiently. As always …..

[winterwx21]

CMC looks good for monday with an inch of rain for a good part of the area. We can hope. GFS not as impressed but not too bad. I'm hoping we can pull off at least a decent half inch soaking for the gardens. We're in desperate need ... crazy that my tomato plants have gotten only 1 watering from rain since I planted them at the beginning on May. 

[Brian5671]

52 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

When the models indicated a change to much warmer/much colder, building ridge, deepening trough and kept postponing it usually never happened. This needs to be watched. It is not impossible that we are in the beginnings of cool summer from beginning to end with only a few isolated hot days and NO prolonged heat or even warmth. We've had these before--1996,1997, 2004, etc.

WX/PT

Kind of like this past winter-the cold never really came despite models showing it in the longer range....

[TWCCraig]

Weeklies are still a torch for July. They have not backed down. This is the coldest snapshot from yesterday's run. I expect the weeklies to adjust and show more cooler weather in this time frame, but still well above normal for the month

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

AQI is 20 now. She’s done 

Unfortunately the fools at NYS DEC have the Air Quality Alert going until Midnight, it should have be canceled immediately this morning.

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

Weeklies are still a torch for July. They have not backed down. This is the coldest snapshot from yesterday's run. I expect the weeklies to adjust and show more cooler weather in this time frame, but still well above normal for the month

still looks like a trough over the NE thought.....

[TWCCraig]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

still looks like a trough over the NE thought.....

That's the coldest snapshot though, it's a full blown ridge after that. I wouldn't be surprised if it got pushed back though

[Wxoutlooksblog]

28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

still looks like a trough over the NE thought.....

Thank you Brian. The best of the ridge remains west of us with only a piece breaking off and moving eastward once in a while. I would be surprised if July averages out much if at all above normal in NYC.

WX/PT

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Thank you Brian. The best of the ridge remains west of us with only a piece breaking off and moving eastward once in a while. I would be surprised if July averages out much if at all above normal in NYC.

WX/PT

Also of interest the waters in the NW Atlantic have cooled considerably-might be a positive feedback mechanism for a trough

[nycemt123]

Stupid post 

You'd think that with the wisdom you've got regarding weather, MJO, you'd also be able to weather a comment you don't like. I'm glad you think it's a stupid post. Would you like me to start pointing out all stupid posts?

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

[nycemt123]

Stupid post 

The traffic in the city for Thursday and Friday is similar to during covid. And you're wondering why he would want to have an easy day? The city will always do and strongly suggest whatever is easiest and clears up traffic as much as possible. That's all there is to it.

What may have been more stupid is that you couldn't seem to understand that on your own.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

[JustinRP37]

2 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I'm a little skeptical that the cool weather pattern is going to change before the last two days of June or even early or mid July.

WX/PT

Don’t worry come December they will show the stupid torch again. Sad face 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Also back to my cooler summer outlook. When a piece of the heat ridge breaks off unfortunately this is where the high pressure will often end up. This is a cool outcome with surface winds off of the relatively cool ocean waters.

WX/PT

[winterwx21]

12z Euro pretty good for monday too. A half inch to inch for a lot of the area. Good to see the models looking better for monday ... hopefully it'll hold. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

12z Euro pretty good for monday too. A half inch to inch for a lot of the area. Good to see the models looking better for monday ... hopefully it'll hold. 

Slower than other models-holds it off til evening/overnight.

[Rmine1]

Light rain in Brightwaters. 

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

12z Euro pretty good for monday too. A half inch to inch for a lot of the area. Good to see the models looking better for monday ... hopefully it'll hold. 

I've been holding onto a .5" to 1" rain event and it still seems to be on track.

[psv88]

76 today

[SACRUS]

Last measurable rainfall (outside of the storms on Tuesday) was May 20th for most.  Monday PM / Tue (6/13) looks like widespread measurable rain for most.

 

76 here today.

[SRRTA22]

Wed was cool and all but I dont want to see that color at 2pm ever again 

Wildfire smoke. Top headline. Who woulda thought

[donsutherland1]

An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least mid-month and likely beyond it.

The generally dry weather will continue with perhaps a few showers or thundershowers through Sunday. Sunday will likely be the warmest day of the week with widespread readings in the 80s. There is potential for a moderate to significant rainfall Monday through Tuesday.

The latest ECMWF weeklies have backed off the development of sustained warmer than normal conditions after the second week of June. The warmth is delayed until late in the month, but that's a low-skill forecasting range.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was +10.33 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.489 today.

On June 7 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.593 (RMM). The June 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.591 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 59% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.3° (0.7° below normal).

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     72degs.(63/82) or +1.

Reached 74 here yesterday at 4pm.

Today:   75-79, wind w., p. cloudy, 65 tomorrow AM.

60*(75%RH) at 7am{was 59 at 6am}.      63* at 9am.       69* at Noon.     72* at 1pm.     74* at 2pm.       76* at 3pm.        77* at 4pm.      73* at 6pm.