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Stormlover74
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An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least mid-month.

Tomorrow could start with additional smoke and haze. However, the New York City area has likely seen the worst of the smoke.

The generally dry weather will continue with perhaps a few showers or thundershowers through Saturday. Early next week has  potential for at least a moderate rainfall.

The latest ECMWF weeklies suggest that sustained warmer than normal conditions could develop during or after the second week of June.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. El Niño conditions are developing.

The SOI was +6.75 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.540 today.

On June 4 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.441 (RMM). The June 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.228 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.5° (0.5° below normal).

 

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36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hopefully the smoke affects the atmosphere and helps us for the winter. 

Big winter incoming ?

While I cannot comment as to that, I can definitely say that all the particulate in the air could allow for thunderstorms to pop up as the particulate is providing the platform for cloud formation. In fact, I wonder if the thunderstorms of yesterday were enhanced by all the particulate in the air. 

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19 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Thick "blob" of smoke has crossed into Sussex County NJ.  Looks like I'll be on the southern fringe of it as it moves e.s.e. across far NNJ and toward NYC, especially northern part of Manhattan and the Bronx (rough trajectory) over the next 2 hours or so and then across western L.I.

Screenshot 2023-06-07 at 6.20.15 PM.jpg

 

The sun has all but disappeared again.  I can still see the smoke in the air, but oddly enough, it doesn't smell that much this round.  I wonder if the worst of it is more aloft on this pass.  

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12 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

While I cannot comment as to that, I can definitely say that all the particulate in the air could allow for thunderstorms to pop up as the particulate is providing the platform for cloud formation. In fact, I wonder if the thunderstorms of yesterday were enhanced by all the particulate in the air. 

maybe but the whole column is so dry

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Historical reference 

New England's Dark Day occurred on May 19, 1780, when an unusual darkening of the daytime sky was observed over the New England states[1] and parts of eastern Canada.[2] The primary cause of the event is believed to have been a combination of smoke from forest fires,[3] a thick fog, and cloud cover

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_England's_Dark_Day

 

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44 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Doesnt really make much sense-kids will just go outside anyway...probably better to have schools open and keep them inside.

Smoke got into the school buildings and people felt ill. Some buildings also have no/little air conditioning. And even though it might be better tomorrow, it’s a better safe than sorry situation. 

IMG_0117.png

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