June 2023

[Rmine1]

Good soaking in Brightwaters finally 

[lee59]

Finally a good rain shower, .39 of an inch. Still raining

[Intensewind002]

Picked up 0.23” from that cell that moved through, 0.65” since Sunday night here, 3.55” on the month

[jm1220]

59 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Looks like my place in lynbrook did well. Where I grew up in south wantagh and is still my dads house has managed to miss every single rain event in the last week. I remember as a kid old (original buyers) saying it never rains in south wantagh in the summer. Only north of the southern state. Looks like that’s dead on accurate. Based on current water temps being close to what they were in the 60-80s during the summer. Moving forward Long Island as done well, including south wantagh once the water cracks 75. We had a record flash flood event about 10 years ago in august were we received about 6 inches in 2 hours. (Not the islip event)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We (some of us) lucked out with the northerly flow intersecting with the daily sea breeze and lots of moisture available. Unfortunately looks like we’re going into a dry pattern so we might be waiting a while for anything more widespread. Still a long way from any kind of drought buster and a month from now, east of the city might be in severe drought especially if we finally get a hot pattern in the 90s. 

[TriPol]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

enjoy the brief window tomorrow 

[donsutherland1]

An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through the remainder of June. However, temperatures will gradually warm toward seasonal levels during the first week of July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around June 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was +1.41 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.842 today.

On June 26 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.342 (RMM). The June 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.508 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.0° (2.0° below normal).

 

[SACRUS]

 

6/28

 

EWR: 85
TEB: 85
BLM: 85
LGA: 84
JFK: 83
ACY: 83
New Brnswck: 82
NYC: 82
ISP: 81
TTN: 80
PHL: 80
 

[WestBabylonWeather]

https://i.imgur.com/FaR0e7z.png


.

[lee59]

83 here today and ended up with .46 inch of rain.

[dmillz25]

Definitely feels better so far today than it has been the last week 

[CIK62]

The last 2 days of June are averaging    78degs.(68/88) or +3.

Month to date is   69.6[-2.2].       June should end at   70.2[-1.6].

Reached 80 here yesterday at 7pm.

Today:   81-86, wind w., variable clouds,  69 tomorrow AM.

68*(76%RH) here at 7am{was 66 at 5am}.        71* at 9am.       75* at 11am.       81* at 4pm.

[Tatamy]

It’s back…

 

[qg_omega]

No real heat in sight

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

It’s back…

 

Yep, stepped outside and smelled the smoke this morning.

[SACRUS]

 

71 / 60 and a brief reprieve from the higher humidity and storms the next 40 hours or so.  Sunny/ worst of the  smoke is south of the area and clearly seen over SNJ into the DelMarVa.  Low / mid 0s today and a dry out day.  Much of the same Fri (6/30) to close the month.  Sunny mid 80s perhaps some upper 80s as warmer surge comes in from the TX/Southern Plains ridge.

 

Holiday weekend.  Warmer / humid and storm chances return Sat (7/1) - Tue (July Fourth AM).  A surge of very humid and hot airmass over the region with 850 temperatures forecast >18c will heat things up when its sunny and fuel evening storm Sat and Sun (7/2).  Mon (7/3) looks most widespread in the evening and overnight.  July fourth will continue warm and humid with scattered storms around still.

Beyond there warmer drier 7/5 - 7/8 period before next trough into the northeast.  Overall warm and still storm chances could popup. 

7/9 and Way beyond  The W. Atl Ridge coming west would allow a period of much warmer to get into the region.

 

 

[MANDA]

Rainfall maps over the last week.  Quick glance spots an 8" over Morris County and 9"+ near Easton, PA. 

 

[MANDA]

one more.

[nycwinter]

kind of day where you want to open your windows and let fresh air in..

[MANDA]

Latest Drought monitor week over week.  Would expect significant changes next issuance over EPA and most of NJ, especially NNJ with much of the Abnormally Dry being erased.  Long Island should hold steady as they missed the heavy rains over the last week.

[MJO812]

Crappy week with rain chances next week

[uofmiami]

10 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

kind of day where you want to open your windows and let fresh air in..

Haha, not for Philly and W NJ though.  

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Crappy week with rain chances next week

I know some places (L.I.) still need it but soils around here need to dry out some.

[jm1220]

29 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I know some places (L.I.) still need it but soils around here need to dry out some.

Will probably be the exact same story as this past week without some trigger for convection like a front near the coast. If it’s daily southerly flow in humidity, it’ll favor the Hudson Valley, NJ and E PA and the city east will be stuck in the marine layer gunk. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 102 (2021)
NYC: 101 (1934)
LGA: 98 (2021)

Lows:

 

EWR: 56 (1968)
NYC: 52 (1919)
LGA: 59 (1995)

 

Historical:

1904: Tornado hits Karacharov Village area of Moscow killing about 24 people.

1931 - The temperature at Monticello FL hit 109 degrees to establish an all-time record for the state. (The Weather Channel)

1954 - Hurricane Alice dumped as much as 27 inches of rain on the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas. The Rio Grande River at Laredo reached a level 12.6 feet above its previous highest mark, and the roadway of the U.S. 90 bridge was thirty feet below the high water. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes Region, with reports of large hail and damaging winds most numerous in Ohio, Indiana and Michigan. Thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Michigan. A tornado near Clare MI was accompanied by softball size hail. In Colorado, an untimely winter-like storm blanketed Mount Evans with six inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Alpena, MI, reported a record low of 39 degrees while Jackson, MS, equalled their record for the month of June with an afternoon high of 105 degrees. Thunderstorms in the central U.S. soaked Springfield MO with 3.62 inches of rain, a record for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern and Central High Plains Region. Thunderstorms in Colorado produced softball size hail at Kit Carson, while pea to marble size hail caused ten million dollars damage to crops in Philips County, CO. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1998: "The Corn Belt Derecho of 1998" in the following states NE, IA, IL, IN, KY. A derecho which originated in far southeast South Dakota moved across Illinois during the afternoon and evening and continued as far east as Ohio the next morning. Every county in central Illinois sustained some damage, as these severe thunderstorms passed. Winds gusted in the 60 to 80 mph range, with some localized microbursts producing winds more than 100 mph. Significant damage occurred in the microburst areas, including the towns of Morton, McLean, LeRoy, and Tolono. In Tolono, 22 cars of a southbound 101-car Illinois Central freight train were blown off the tracks. It was unknown how many vehicles were picked up by the wind, but 16 cars were turned over, and another six derailed but remained upright. The train was en route to Centralia from Chicago with a load of mixed freight, including plastic pellets and meal. The freight cars empty weighed about 60,000 pounds, while a full one weighs about 260,000 pounds. Overall, 12 people were injured, and damage was estimated at around $16 million. 

[SACRUS]

40 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I know some places (L.I.) still need it but soils around here need to dry out some.

Mon (7/3) PM into the overnight looks widespread, could see some heavy rain.  Fourth looks to clear or have leftover debris and mor scattered showers, much like yesterday id expect.

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Mon (7/3) PM into the overnight looks widespread, could see some heavy rain.  Fourth looks to clear or have leftover debris and mor scattered showers, much like yesterday id expect.

Sunday doesn't look great either

[SACRUS]

 

Smoke (thickest) visible into SNJ and DE/Mar/VA/C

 

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

5 hours ago, qg_omega said:

No real heat in sight

Picking right up on that last night's Euro along with today's GFS and CMC are again picking up on upper level low over eastern Canada that will renew the cyclonic flow of northwesterlies in the upper atmosphere for the northeastern U.S. including NYC through most or all of the first half of July. With this unfortunate development if you appreciate the sunny hot inferno typical of mid summer with high temperatures 90+ you probably have to wait until late in July or August. My anticipation after June averaged about 2.0 degrees below normal in NYC is for July to be almost a repeat performance the one caveat being the possibility of above normal night-time low temperatures compensating a little bit. But I'm not seeing any 90+ degree weather for NYC at this point through July 15th and I am seeing a continuation of frequent thunderstorm days, some smoke and haze, marine layers at times, all of which June featured. We're catching sort of a break today with lower humidity levels and a temporary let up in the cyclonic flow or upper low which had sat to our west for days and days but that let up will be over by Sunday.

WX/PT

[Gravity Wave]

20 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Picking right up on that last night's Euro along with today's GFS and CMC are again picking up on upper level low over eastern Canada that will renew the cyclonic flow of northwesterlies in the upper atmosphere for the northeastern U.S. including NYC through most or all of the first half of July. With this unfortunate development if you appreciate the sunny hot inferno typical of mid summer with high temperatures 90+ you probably have to wait until late in July or August. My anticipation after June averaged about 2.0 degrees below normal in NYC is for July to be almost a repeat performance the one caveat being the possibility of above normal night-time low temperatures compensating a little bit. But I'm not seeing any 90+ degree weather for NYC at this point through July 15th and I am seeing a continuation of frequent thunderstorm days, some smoke and haze, marine layers at times, all of which June featured. We're catching sort of a break today with lower humidity levels and a temporary let up in the cyclonic flow or upper low which had sat to our west for days and days but that let up will be over by Sunday.

WX/PT

Could the high dews forecast for early July prop up overnight lows enough to compensate for BN highs?

[Wxoutlooksblog]

2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Could the high dews forecast for early July prop up overnight lows enough to compensate for BN highs?

Maybe maybe not. I think we have to wait to see how that unfolds and to see what the second half of July is going to look like. With these kinds of summers we sometimes get some early cool high pressure systems dropping down from Canada. I'm not ruling anything out just saying keep your heat expectations low this summer around here.

WX/PT