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47 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

SE mass, getting absolutely crushed this morning. Takes some validity away from my cool water destroys convection theory. So there is more to the story as to why western LI (mainly south shore) has completely struck out. We’ll see what happens later today…. Maybe we finally score…

There’s a frontal boundary/wave that’s helping to organize convection. It fired up in time for them but of course missed us (not the first time in the last few days). We can still get heavy rain/storms when we have a front or system to organize convection especially elevated convection. 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

SE mass, getting absolutely crushed this morning. Takes some validity away from my cool water destroys convection theory. So there is more to the story as to why western LI (mainly south shore) has completely struck out. We’ll see what happens later today…. Maybe we finally score…

Water temps are above normal in that region. 

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The last 3 days of June are averaging    76degs.(67/86) or +1.

Month to date is   69.5[-2.1].      June should end at   70.2[-1.6].

Reached 80 here yesterday at 5 pm.

Today:   76-81, wind w., cloudy, Rain after 3pm,  66 tomorrow AM.

69*(93%RH) here at 7am{was 68 earlier}.       76* at Noon.

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11 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Wow at the 5” totals. I’m sitting at .05”. Has to be one of the greatest cutoff events for our area. With so Many days and so many chances and every single one a fail on the immediate south shore. I don’t think Jones beach has even had .001”

Reminds me of 2018. I remember the complaints from west of the city about it being too wet and cloudy that summer, not the case east of the city.

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8 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Next potential of 90+ temperatures in NYC delayed to July 6th-9th and may actually get delayed until even later. Onshore winds, marine layers, and showers/storms in the area (not necessarily rain where you live) will keep most of us from getting there for a while yet.

WX/PT

I’m pretty invested at this point in seeing if we can actually score a cooler than normal summer (relatively speaking). I would have to think an eventual flip to our typical summer inferno is coming by mid July and is more likely than the alternative, but still I’m finding this pretty interesting. Especially with so much heat to our southwest. 

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71 / 67 SW wind.  Partly cloudy with some low clouds and fog around.  A bit drier with isolated storms and showers today and widely scattered and isolated later Thu (6/29) and Fri (6/30).  Smoke may spoil the sunnier day Thu but Friday looks like the nicest day since last Mon (6/19).  

 

Holiday weekend warm, humid and scattered storms Low / mid 80s perhaps upper 80s where/when its most sunny for length.   storms focus on sun pm and mon pm.  Fourth of July looks to be much like today widely scattered storms perhaps some lingering morning sun.  Look to continue warm, humid and storms chances through the middle of the holiday week.

Beyond there - Western Atlantic Ridge positions expanded west and this will be key in drying and heating up in the 7/9 and beyond or continued hung up boundary.  Hazy, Warm , Humid for now.  

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

.70 yesterday

 

6 day total now at an even 3 inches

 

Enough...

2.47 here.  Go from the stretch of dryness / sunny to this is par for course with these hung up patterns.  The tendency for weakness into the northeast is persistent and we'll see how much the TX/S plains ridge comes east and north next week and the western atlantic ridge can expand west.  It looks stormy nxt week but not as (wet) as this week.

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Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 99 (2021)
NYC: 96 (1991)
LGA: 96 (2021)

Lows:


EWR: 53 (1970)
NYC: 54 (1995)
LGA: 55 (1995)

 

Historical:

 

1788 - The Battle of Monmouth in central New Jersey was fought in sweltering heat. The temperature was 96 degrees in the shade, and there were more casualties from the heat than from bullets. (David Ludlum)

1892 - The temperature at Orogrande UT soared to 116 degrees to establish a record for the state. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders)

1923 - A massive tornado hit Sandusky, OH, then swept across Lake Erie to strike the town of Lorain. The tornado killed 86 persons and caused twelve million dollars damage. The tornado outbreak that day was the worst of record for the state of Ohio up til that time. (David Ludlum)

 

1924: An estimated F4 tornado struck the towns of Sandusky and Lorain, killing 85 people and injuring over 300. This tornado is the deadliest ever in Ohio history. 

1975 - Lee Trevino and two other golfers are struck by lightning at the Western Open golf tournament in Oak Brook, IL. (The Weather Channel)

1980 - The temperature at Wichita Falls, TX, soared to 117 degrees, their hottest reading of record. Daily highs were 110 degrees or above between the 24th of June and the 3rd of July. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in the north central U.S. Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced wind gusts to 70 mph and baseball size hail at Arapahoe, and wind gusts to 80 mph along with baseball size hail at Wolback and Belgrade. Six cities in the Ohio Valley reported record low temperatures for the date, including Cincinnati, OH, with a reading of 50 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Showers and thunderstorms brought much needed rains to parts of the central U.S. Madison, WI, received 1.67 inches of rain, a record for the date, and their first measurable rain since the Mother's Day tornado outbreak on the 8th of May. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Evening thunderstorms deluged Winnfield LA with eleven inches of rain in four hours and fifteen minutes, and Baton Rouge LA reported 11 inches of rain in two days. Totals in west central Louisiana ranged up to 17 inches. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Northern High Plains. Two inch hail broke windows in nearly every building at Comstock, NE. Thunderstorms in North Dakta produced two inch hail at Killdeer, and golf ball size hail at Zap. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

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2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:


Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 99 (2021)
NYC: 96 (1991)
LGA: 96 (2021)

Lows:


EWR: 53 (1970)
NYC: 54 (1995)
LGA: 55 (1995)

 

Historical:

 

1788 - The Battle of Monmouth in central New Jersey was fought in sweltering heat. The temperature was 96 degrees in the shade, and there were more casualties from the heat than from bullets. (David Ludlum)

1892 - The temperature at Orogrande UT soared to 116 degrees to establish a record for the state. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders)

1923 - A massive tornado hit Sandusky, OH, then swept across Lake Erie to strike the town of Lorain. The tornado killed 86 persons and caused twelve million dollars damage. The tornado outbreak that day was the worst of record for the state of Ohio up til that time. (David Ludlum)

 

1924: An estimated F4 tornado struck the towns of Sandusky and Lorain, killing 85 people and injuring over 300. This tornado is the deadliest ever in Ohio history. 

1975 - Lee Trevino and two other golfers are struck by lightning at the Western Open golf tournament in Oak Brook, IL. (The Weather Channel)

1980 - The temperature at Wichita Falls, TX, soared to 117 degrees, their hottest reading of record. Daily highs were 110 degrees or above between the 24th of June and the 3rd of July. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in the north central U.S. Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced wind gusts to 70 mph and baseball size hail at Arapahoe, and wind gusts to 80 mph along with baseball size hail at Wolback and Belgrade. Six cities in the Ohio Valley reported record low temperatures for the date, including Cincinnati, OH, with a reading of 50 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Showers and thunderstorms brought much needed rains to parts of the central U.S. Madison, WI, received 1.67 inches of rain, a record for the date, and their first measurable rain since the Mother's Day tornado outbreak on the 8th of May. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Evening thunderstorms deluged Winnfield LA with eleven inches of rain in four hours and fifteen minutes, and Baton Rouge LA reported 11 inches of rain in two days. Totals in west central Louisiana ranged up to 17 inches. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Northern High Plains. Two inch hail broke windows in nearly every building at Comstock, NE. Thunderstorms in North Dakta produced two inch hail at Killdeer, and golf ball size hail at Zap. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Damn Sandusky got hit 2 years in a row?

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13 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Smoke in Ohio and WPA on the move later today into our region tomorrow.  We'll see how much haze or orange it does to mute the first sunny day in 9 days.

Was sunny out here all weekend. 

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14 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Smoke in Ohio and WPA on the move later today into our region tomorrow.  We'll see how much haze or orange it does to mute the first sunny day in 9 days.

HRRR says the worst stays S & W. Maybe some light haze but nothing like the media is hyping up for NYC metro like Chicago is going through currently. 

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1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

HRRR says the worst stays S & W. Maybe some light haze but nothing like the media is hyping up for NYC metro like Chicago is going through currently. 

 

Flow does look to shove the plume more south and west - hoping so.  I havent looked much but imagine canada is getting into the rains / storms s well and helping to quell the fires.

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3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

SE mass, getting absolutely crushed this morning. Takes some validity away from my cool water destroys convection theory. So there is more to the story as to why western LI (mainly south shore) has completely struck out. We’ll see what happens later today…. Maybe we finally score…

Yes I have noticed when we have a marine onshore flow and miss storms, there are storms out over the ocean in many cases.

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1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I’m pretty invested at this point in seeing if we can actually score a cooler than normal summer (relatively speaking). I would have to think an eventual flip to our typical summer inferno is coming by mid July and is more likely than the alternative, but still I’m finding this pretty interesting. Especially with so much heat to our southwest. 

After such a mild winter, I would not be surprised to see a normal or cooler than normal summer. Weather usually averages out at some point.

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48 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

HRRR says the worst stays S & W. Maybe some light haze but nothing like the media is hyping up for NYC metro like Chicago is going through currently. 

I see the HRRR near surface smoke forecast graphics on Pivotal, but they only go out to 48 hours (every 6 hrs); is there any decent smoke forecast model that goes out maybe 5-7 days that is available on-line?  Thanks. 

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34 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yes I have noticed when we have a marine onshore flow and miss storms, there are storms out over the ocean in many cases.

We had a frontal boundary go by overnight which organized the storms. Notice how at JFK winds shifted from south to north overnight. We just struck out again on where the storms organized. We can still get heavy rain when there’s some synoptic feature to generate lift. 

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34 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Any chance of lowering that dew point below 60? It's moderately uncomfortable without the AC.

A little better the next couple days with the dewpoints down around 60. We'll see if we can get them a little below 60. We might be able to get them down to the upper 50s tomorrow. Not bad. Dewpoints will be going back up over the weekend though. 

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