donsutherland1 Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through the remainder of June. Unsettled weather will likely continue through Tuesday. The temperature will approach seasonable levels tomorrow before cooling slightly. It will be humid with scattered showers and thundershowers tomorrow, some of which could be heavy. Parts of Texas remain in the midst of an extreme heat event. High temperatures through 6 pm CDT included: Austin: 103° Brownsville: 97° Corpus Christi: 99° Cortulla: 110° (old record: 106°, 2012) Del Rio: 110° (old record: 106°, 1994) Houston: 98° Junction: 104° Laredo: 109° (tied record set in 1994) Mcallen: 102° San Angelo: 111° (old record: 105°, 1994 and 2011) ***4th time pre-2023 all-time high as been reached*** San Antonio: 102° Victoria: 97° Zapata: 108° (old record: 106°, 1980) At present, there is little indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was +13.21 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.173 today. On June 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.491 (RMM). The June 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.512 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.1° (1.7° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 41 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Over an inch now Nice. I ended up with .56 here. Not bad. Made up for all the misses earlier in the afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzLuv Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Poker2015 said: We call it the Branchburg dome here. We missed everything today by a couple miles...did get .71" since Friday though Thunder now, but it's just to the east. We actually did receive a downpour about an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 nice summer day today, no rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 6/25 EWR: 87 New Brnswck: 87 PHL: 87 ACY: 86 TTN: 86 NYC: 85 TEB: 85 BLM: 83 JFK: 83 LGA: 83 ISP: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 good luck figuring out tomorrow's details 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 best case scenario: we get rid of any crapvection in the morning and a strong well organized mcs develops in pa during the afternoon 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 17 minutes ago, forkyfork said: best case scenario: we get rid of any crapvection in the morning and a strong well organized mcs develops in pa during the afternoon That would be amazingly ideal. When was the last time we had a regional mcs. I remember so many growing up in the late 80s early 90s! Since then… just like the Alberta clipper, gone…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Good rainfall today…. .80 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 50 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That would be amazingly ideal. When was the last time we had a regional mcs. I remember so many growing up in the late 80s early 90s! Since then… just like the Alberta clipper, gone…. we won't know until we wake up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: best case scenario: we get rid of any crapvection in the morning and a strong well organized mcs develops in pa during the afternoon Prepare to be disappointed 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Other than a quick shower was a beautiful summer day on the island. Jersey can keep it’s weekend storms. Thanks. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 86.2 degree high here today, warmest of the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Enhanced remains to the south of the NYC metro but the slight risk has been expanded a bit overall. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 The last 5 days of June are averaging 76degs.(68/84) or +1. Month to date is 69.2[-2.1]. June should end at 70.4[-1.4]. Reached 85 here yesterday at 6:30pm. Today: 76-81, wind e. to s., cloudy, Rain by 3pm, 70 tomorrow AM. 72*(95%RH) here at 7am{was 69 at 3am}. 75* at 9am. 77* at Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 .07 yesterday...missed all the big stuff .66 grand total on this week long summer train wreck Its off the rails boys on the longest days of summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Quick heavy shower just moved thru, .08 inch of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Flood watch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 72 / 71 and partly cloudy. Tropics pattern continues into day 4. More storms and soakers between breaks in clouds which if any are for any length of time could push temps into the mid/ upper 80s. More of the same tomorrow perhaps not as humid but plenty of storms through Wed (6/28). Perhaps a break or mainly isolated storms Thu (6/29) and Fri (6/30) and with enough sun a warm mid/upper 80s but i think clouds will be a plnety and nearby debris from storms to the north and east. Holiday weekend. The Rockies / TX / S Plains ridge will push pieces of the intense heat up and east. Sat (7/1) / Sun (7/2) still humid, warm and storm potential. By Mon the third the flow is more westerly / NW'rly and its isolated rain chances and heating to upper 80s and the fourth could looks summery near 90 and dry. Beyond there overall warm, humid and continued storm chances. Pieces of the TX heat are nearby or just south so with enough clearing warm to hot days. Western Atlantic Ridge pushes into the Southeast/FL and we'll have to watch if it expands west into week 2. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 So a real possibility of dodging more storms this upcoming holiday weekend? At least here in north Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Two questions, where are we at on # of 90 degree days relative to average for this date? Well below I’m assuming, we haven’t seen 90 since April yes? My home location is cooler, averaging 66F this June so far. Hit 43.2 as a monthly low on the 8th. Also what’s the tornadic risk for today? SPC has us in enhanced / slight with 2% tornado risk area which is significant, but I don’t have time to dig into the details or read the mesoscale at the moment. Are we talking discrete storms with chances for rotation or MCS / QLCS with embedded spinups for today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Missed storms all weekend. Nice little storm just rolled through with lots of lightning and thunder. Lost power as well. Only .20" with it but I'll take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 Does this qualify as crapvection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 1 hour ago, winterwarlock said: .07 yesterday...missed all the big stuff .66 grand total on this week long summer train wreck Its off the rails boys on the longest days of summer Same here. Places 5 miles from me have had over 2.5” over the weekend. My total was .30” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 The frontal boundary near and along I78 is continuing to act as a focal point for convection this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Good morning everyone. CPK total yesterday 0.0. Three day total so far .11. Stay well, as always … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 37 minutes ago, FPizz said: Missed storms all weekend. Nice little storm just rolled through with lots of lightning and thunder. Lost power as well. Only .20" with it but I'll take. only .2" for you? We got .48" Saw pictures of 2 funnel clouds yesterday right around us in Somerville and Readington. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 1.45 since Friday thanks to last evening's deluge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Raining again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Light shower this morning. Putting on the sprinklers now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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