June 2023

[Brian5671]

Reminds me of last Saturday-upton had rain yet radar and models have close to nothing

[SnoSki14]

48 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

So much for tropical dews helping us. Mid levels are bone dry and confluence destroyed everything. There’s another wave later today that might bring us something but if not we need to rely on southerly flow to generate rain here when 95% of the time it just results in scattered storms inland over NJ that die out before they can reach us near the coast. This can easily be a bust setup here with just lots of clouds for days. 

Dews don't arrive until Friday 

[nycwinter]

chilly i might have to wear a hoodie and another jacket as well..

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

chilly i might have to wear a hoodie and another jacket as well..

Good for you

[lee59]

11 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

chilly i might have to wear a hoodie and another jacket as well..

I see guys wearing shorts in January, so why not wear a jacket in June and July.

[SACRUS]

 

61 / 54 and mostly cloudy ENE wind - raw some drizzle in spots.  Bulk of the steady rain has shifted east and while today is still well below normal, cool and raw it wont nearly be as wet as initially modeled.  The transition from a so Cal marine influenced desert pattern to a Florida style humid / warm and stormy will be completed tomorrow.  6/23 - 6/30 southerly flow - warm, humid and very active showers and storms (some slow moving soakers).  Should manage >2 inches area wide and spots exceed 5 inches where the slow drenchers materialize / inland).  When and where the sun comes out it warms up quickly and if we can manage any duration of sunshine some warm / hotter heat indices. 850s of >16C will keep it warm overall by way of higher low/minimums but some warmer days with sun are possible Thu (6/29).  Rain chances look highest Sat night into Sun (storms) and then again on Mon (6/26).

 

Beyond there into the Holiday weekend warm flow continues should see some of the TX/Southern plains heat bleed east and between transient troughs, as they lift out and the flow goes westerly/N'wrly a much warm - hot progression on a day o two.  The Western Atlantics Ridge or a piece / southeast ridge looks to come back to life in this neck of the woods into the longer range D 10 or so.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Reminds me of last Saturday-upton had rain yet radar and models have close to nothing

Just keeps adding to the drought=drought theory. Although the moisture source for this low is the Atlantic. So this is probably more like a too much confluence situation we see with winter storms. Glad I watered yesterday.

[FPizz]

15 hours ago, forkyfork said:

 

Good thing one random guy on twitter posted that.  I disagree with him.  September is summer not fall around here, December is fall and rarely winter.  March is more winter than spring.  June I'll agree is more summer than spring though.  

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

Good thing Brian posted that.  I disagree with him.  September is summer not fall around here, December is fall and rarely winter.  March is more winter than spring.  June I'll agree is more summer than spring though.  

you don't agree with the fact that june is warmer than september in this region?

[FPizz]

Just now, forkyfork said:

you don't agree with the fact that june is warmer than september in this region?

Re-read.  I said that June is more summer, but December, March and September fit more with the actual seasons than Climatological.  

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Re-read.  I said that June is more summer, but December, March and September fit more with the actual seasons than Climatological.  

well feel free to send a letter to every official meteorological organization in the world to let them know about your little opinion 

[Stormlover74]

Amazing

 

[Brian5671]

models have zero clue right now

[MANDA]

Latest Drought Monitor shows expansion of drought conditions over parts of this forum.  Moderate drought now showing up over parts of NNJ and eastern LI.  Severe drought conditions showing up over parts of MD and south central PA.

With upcoming wet pattern over the next week conditions should improve across this forum over the next 2 weeks.

For me the wet period was always today through next Thursday.  The rain is coming.  Patience grasshoppers.  I still believe some local 4" amounts are possible across parts of this forum by end of next week.  As I said a few days back my goal is 2" during the period 12Z today to 12Z next Thursday.  Anything less will be a gross disappointment.  Pattern is setting up to deliver some much needed rainfall.

[IrishRob17]

9 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Latest Drought Monitor shows expansion of drought conditions over parts of this forum.  Moderate drought now showing up over parts of NNJ and eastern LI.  Severe drought conditions showing up over parts of MD and south central PA.

With upcoming wet pattern over the next week conditions should improve across this forum over the next 2 weeks.

For me the wet period was always today through next Thursday.  The rain is coming.  Patience grasshoppers.  I still believe some local 4" amounts are possible across parts of this forum by end of next week.  As I said a few days back my goal is 2" during the period 12Z today to 12Z next Thursday.  Anything less will be a gross disappointment.  Pattern is setting up to deliver some much needed rainfall.

And most of Orange and Rockland 

[Brian5671]

Both NAM's now have little rain through Sunday morning for most of the subforum except far N and W and well east

[MJO812]

32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

models have zero clue right now

They never have a clue

[winterwx21]

54 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Amazing

 

What a shock that another event might be falling apart, lol. Of course I have to say might because the models don't have a clue. Other models look better. RGEM gives us a decent amount of rain tomorrow, but who knows. Considering how incredibly dry it has been here since May 1st, it wouldn't be surprising if the NAM ends up right and our misery continues. 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

What a shock that another event might be falling apart, lol. Of course I have to say might because the models don't have a clue. Other models look better. RGEM gives us a decent amount of rain tomorrow, but who knows. Considering how incredibly dry it has been here since May 1st, it wouldn't be surprising if the NAM ends up right and our misery continues. 

I'm willing to be patient and see where we are in a week but some models ...ahem gfs...had widespread 2 to 3" by Monday and I just don't see it

[Brian5671]

28 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

What a shock that another event might be falling apart, lol. Of course I have to say might because the models don't have a clue. Other models look better. RGEM gives us a decent amount of rain tomorrow, but who knows. Considering how incredibly dry it has been here since May 1st, it wouldn't be surprising if the NAM ends up right and our misery continues. 

The RGEM looks more realistic for today with the rains well well east.  NAMS are too far west based on current radar

[Allsnow]

49 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm willing to be patient and see where we are in a week but some models ...ahem gfs...had widespread 2 to 3" by Monday and I just don't see it

I doubt we get the 3-4 these global models have for us by next week. I might need to water today if we don’t get anything 

[Allsnow]

57 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

What a shock that another event might be falling apart, lol. Of course I have to say might because the models don't have a clue. Other models look better. RGEM gives us a decent amount of rain tomorrow, but who knows. Considering how incredibly dry it has been here since May 1st, it wouldn't be surprising if the NAM ends up right and our misery continues. 

This was so predictable….another rain event the models loose inside 24 hours. Didn’t get enough mist to even wet the ground here 

[winterwx21]

52 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm willing to be patient and see where we are in a week but some models ...ahem gfs...had widespread 2 to 3" by Monday and I just don't see it

And now GFS has only about a half inch of rain for us by monday. 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This was so predictable….another rain event the models loose inside 24 hours. Didn’t get enough mist to even wet the ground here 

Didn't even get that here.  Sun is now breaking through-reminds me of the snowfall busts of the 1980's...... Forecast from upton still shows 70% chance of showers today 

[jm1220]

57 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

What a shock that another event might be falling apart, lol. Of course I have to say might because the models don't have a clue. Other models look better. RGEM gives us a decent amount of rain tomorrow, but who knows. Considering how incredibly dry it has been here since May 1st, it wouldn't be surprising if the NAM ends up right and our misery continues. 

Where you live in NJ I’d be more optimistic that daily convection can fire up but if we’re just on a southerly flow each day it’ll amount to very little east of the city. If nothing happens with this system today (becoming likely), this likely becomes a bust near the coast where onshore winds kill off any convection. For NJ/E PA though the daily convection can definitely produce if not widespread 

[Allsnow]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

And now GFS has only about a half inch of rain for us by monday. 

 

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

And now GFS has only about a half inch of rain for us by monday. 

Everything west of us haha 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

 

Everything west of us haha 

 

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This was so predictable….another rain event the models loose inside 24 hours. Didn’t get enough mist to even wet the ground here 

I saw drops on my car this morning 

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I doubt we get the 3-4 these global models have for us by next week. I might need to water today if we don’t get anything 

I actually watered the garden yesterday in case today didn't work out. Glad I did. I'm so used to potential rain events disappointing here that I usually water to be on the safe side. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 101 (1988)
NYC: 98 (1988)
LGA: 99 (1988)


Lows:

 

EWR: 48 (1940)
LGA: 53 (1992)
NYC: 52 (1940)

historical:

1928: A farmer near Greensburg, KS looked up into the heart of a tornado. He described its walls as "rotating clouds lit with constant flashes of lightning and a strong gassy odor with a screaming, hissing sound." 

 

1947 - Twelve inches of rain fell in forty-two minutes at Holt, MO, establishing a world rainfall record. That record was tied on January 24-25, 1956, at the Kilauea Sugar Plantation in Hawaii, as their state record was established with 38 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The Weather Channel)

1972 - Hurricane Agnes deluged Pennsylvania and New York State with torrential rains resulting in the most costly flood in U.S. history. In the Middle Susquehanna Valley of Pennsylvania, 24 hour rainfall amounts were generally 8 to 12 inches, with up to 19 inches in extreme southwestern Schuylkill County. At Wilkes-Barre, PA, the dike was breached destroying much of the town. Flooding resulted in 117 deaths and 3.1 billion dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1981 - A young woman from Lubbock, TX, was struck by lightning. The bolt of lightning struck just above her right shoulder near her neck, and passed right to left through her body, tearing her warm-ups, causing her tennis shoes to explode, and lifting her two feet into the air. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms in southern Texas produced wind gusts to 116 mph near Quemado. Thunderstorms in New York State produced 5.01 inches of rain in 24 hours at Buffalo, an all-time record for that location, and produced an inch of rain at Bath, PA. The temperature at Fairbanks AK soared to 92 degrees, establishing a record for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Sixty-five cities in twenty-four states reported record high temperatures for the date. Tucson AZ reported an all-time record high of 114 degrees, surpassing the previous record of 112 degrees established a day earlier. Highs of 98 degrees at Pittsburgh, PA, and 100 degrees at Baltimore, MD, tied records for the month of June. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Record cold temperatures were reported in the High Plains Region. Rapid City, SD, reported a record low of 39 degrees, in sharp contrast to their record high of 102 degrees two days earlier, on the 20th. (The National Weather Summary)

 

2003: A hailstone measuring 7.0 inches in diameter with a circumference of 18.75 inches and weighing 1.33 pounds falls in Aurora, Nebraska. The National Weather Service reports this is the second largest hailstone ever documented in the U.S. by weight, and the largest by size at that time. The world's largest hailstone NOW was produced from storms in South Dakota; 8" in diameter and 1.9375 lbs. on July 23, 2010.

 

 

[FPizz]

57 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I actually watered the garden yesterday in case today didn't work out. Glad I did. I'm so used to potential rain events disappointing here that I usually water to be on the safe side. 

I'm going to have to do that today along with adding some water to the pool