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Stormlover74
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An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through the remainder of June.

Overnight and tomorrow will see showers and perhaps thunderstorms. It will be unseasonably cool. Temperatures tomorrow will likely stay below 70° in parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The unsettled weather will likely continue into the weekend.

Parts of Texas are in the midst of an extreme heat event. High temperatures through 5 pm CDT included:

Abilene: 103°
Austin: 103°
Brownsville: 99°
Corpus Christi: 103° (old record: 102°, 2017)
Cotulla: 115° (old record: 104°, 2022)
Del Rio: 115° (old record: 105°, 1951 and 1996) ***New all-time record***
Houston: 100° (tied record set in 1902 and tied in 1906 and 1998)
Junction: 110° (old record: 104°, 1953)
Laredo: 112° (old record: 109°, 1996)
McAllen: 107° (tied record set in 2017)
San Angelo: 114° (old record: 108°, 1934) ***Tied all-time record***
San Antonio: 105°
Victoria: 100°
Zapata: 113° (old record: 107°, 1998)

At present, there is little indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was -26.99 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.179 today.

On June 19 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.356 (RMM). The June 18-adjusted amplitude was 0.198 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 89% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.3° (1.5° below normal).

 

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1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

As said before, both "summers" are correct.  While the past few years September has shown to be warm, I used to notice that when Labor Day hit, the temperatures would drop noticeably.  And from my school days in the 1960s and 70s, I remember sweating in the classroom (and not just because I was not good in math).

Amount of daylight also matters imo, which is why I consider summer June 1 - August 31. 

Huge decline in daylight Sept 1-21

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2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro really dropped amounts for tomorrow but is pretty wet Friday and for the weekend

One down, more to come. Blocking is too legit to quit. Until the ridge moves far enough east, expect the dry stretch to continue 

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Re discussion of summer better defined as June to August or June 21 to Sept 21, actually June 13 to Sep 13 is the warmest quarter of the year on average. So it is a compromise and slightly closer to astronomical summer than to climatological summer. 

Every year is different of coursre, and 1881 had a very late displacement of its summer into basically July to September. 1964 was probably the most extreme example in the other direction, May was more of a summer feel than August that year. 1965 was almost as early except that July 1965 was a very cool month too, there was almost no summer in 1965. 

I see signs on tonite\s ,model run of Texas anomaly moving towards Kansas and once it gets past KS will be difficult to keep it entirely out of NE states but signs are weak later in model run for it so far. July 5-8 would be most likey arrival time. 

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8 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Ridge is kicking our ass! Nothing on radar though to raise hopes right now, albeit Upton remains relatively bullish

So much for tropical dews helping us. Mid levels are bone dry and confluence destroyed everything. There’s another wave later today that might bring us something but if not we need to rely on southerly flow to generate rain here when 95% of the time it just results in scattered storms inland over NJ that die out before they can reach us near the coast. This can easily be a bust setup here with just lots of clouds for days. 

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The next 8 days are averaging    75degs.(67/82) or Normal.

Month to date is    68.9[-1.9].       Should be    70.5[-1.4] by the 30th.

Reached 76 here yesterday.

Today:    62-66, wind ne., Rain, 65 tomorrow AM.

60*(80%RH) at 7am{was 65 at midnight}.      62* at 9am.       65* at 11am.     68* at 1pm.      Reached 73* at 3pm.      69* at 8pm.

 

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