June 2023

[SACRUS]

 

6/19

 

PHL: 87
ACY: 84
TTN: 84
TEB: 82
New Brnswck: 81
NYC: 81
EWR: 80
LGA: 79
ISP: 77
JFK: 77
BLM: 75

[Rtd208]

The 00z GFS continues the wetter theme beginning late week lasting well into next week. It actually looks like it brings in showers and thunderstorms as early as Thursday now.

[Rtd208]

Pretty good discussion from Mt.Holly on the rain and thunderstorm potential over the next several days beginning Thursday.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Following a record dry May and a fairly dry start to June, the
northern mid-Atlantic is looking at an extended period of warm,
humid and rather wet weather for the end of the week, the
weekend, and even into next week. The flow throughout much of
the atmosphere will become well-aligned from the south, and
remain that way for much of the long term forecast period. Cut-
off low pressure over the Southeast US will only slowly lift
northward toward the Great Lakes, then drift eastward across our
region over the weekend. Meanwhile, longer range model guidance
is tentatively in good agreement of another fairly strong
upper-level trough ejecting eastward from the northern Rockies
toward the Great Lakes early next week. That system may amplify
as it settles into the long wave trough set up along the East
Coast, reinforcing warm, moist southerly flow across our region.
The airmass from Friday through the weekend looks quite
convective, and showers/t-storms will tend to be enhanced with 
daytime heating, particularly if there is any sunshine. While
it will not rain all the time, and any one day through this
period does not look anomalously moist for June, the pattern
will be capable of producing heavy rain, particularly with any
training convection or when the flow aloft weakens. Despite the
drought in some parts of our region, flooding may become an
issue particularly next week if this pattern comes to fruition
and the ground becomes more saturated. 

&&

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

The 00z GFS continues the wetter theme beginning late week lasting well into next week. It actually looks like it brings in showers and thunderstorms as early as Thursday now.

Euro/EPS are quite wet last 10 days of June

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    74degs.(67/81) or near Normal.

Month to date is   68.7[-1.7].      Should be    70.2[-1.2] by the 28th.

Reached 78 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:  73-78, wind e., m. cloudy, 61 tomorrow AM.

67*(83%RH) here at 7am{was 66 at 6am}.      70* at 9am.      72* at 10am.       73* at 11am.      77* at 3pm.      79* at 4pm.        80* at 4:30pm, wind is dead.      Reached 82* at 5pm.      71* at 8pm.

[SACRUS]

 

67/59 and mostly cloudy.  Cooler NE/ENE flow the next 2 days.  Capped in the 70s today and Wed (6/21) but mainly dry.  Thu (6/22) begins a transition to a much more humid and wetter 9 days  as southerly flow envelops the area as we transition from the marine (So Cal style) influenced pattern to a more tropical one.  The next deluge to end a dry period is likely set to deliver >2 - 3 inches of rainfall  area wide with spots of >5 or 6 inches of rain  where the slow moving training storm develop.  The period looks cloudy but warm southerly flow can create warm to hot periods where and when  there are breaks of sun. But a very much different period from the vey sunny May incoming.

Beyond there,

As the trough and ULL lift out the EC by the end of the month, there is potential for a day or two of heat.  The next month opens with trough into the GL and warm southerly flow - should the flow flatten  with help from Western Atl Ridge expanding west, then a much warmer to hot pattern can develop.  The tendency for weakness under the ridge has been persistent (2013 was similar) 2003 as well.  Overall wetter and near normal / humid.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif  

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 98 (2012)
NYC: 98 (1923)
LGA: 98 (2012)

Lows:

EWR: 52 (1956)
NYC: 49 (1914)
LGA: 55 (1959)

 

Historical:

1682 - A major tornado ripped through southwestern Connecticut, passing through Stratford, Milford, and New Haven, and then into Long Island Sound. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1921 - Circle, MT, received 11.5 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the state. The town of Circle received a total of 16.79 inches of rain that month to establish a rainfall record for any town in Montana for any month of the year. (The Weather Channel)

1928 - A farmer near Greensburg, KS, looked up into the heart of a tornado. He described its walls as rotating clouds lit with constant flashes of lightning and a strong gassy odor with a screaming, hissing sound . (The Weather Channel)

1964 - A squall line producing large hail swept through central Illinois. A second squall line moved through during the early morning hours of the 21st, and a third one moved through shortly after dawn. The series of hailstorms caused nine million dollars damage. Hailstones as large as grapefruit caused heavy damage to trees, utility lines, crops and buildings. The thunderstorms also produced as much as five inches of rain in an eight hour period. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Thunderstorms prevailed east of the Rockies, producing severe weather in the Central High Plains Region. Thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Colorado, and produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Goodland, KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thirty-eight cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 97 degrees at Flint, MI, and 104 degrees at Chicago, IL, equalled records for the month of June. Thunderstorms in North Dakota produced baseball size hail near Kief, and wind gusts to 100 mph near McGregor. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - An early morning thunderstorm produced wind gusts to 61 mph at Pierre, SD, and the hot thunderstorm winds raised the temperature from 86 degrees at midnight to 96 degrees by 1 AM, and 104 degrees by 2 AM. Butte, MT, and Yellowstone Park, WY, reported snow that afternoon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2001: Large hail driven by strong thunderstorm winds raked Denver International and front-range airports. Wind gusting to 54 mph along with hail as large as 2 inches in diameter punched at least 14 thousand holes and cracks in the flat roofs of several buildings at Denver International Airport. Also, 93 planes and hundreds of cars were damaged. About 100 flights had to be canceled stranding 1500 travelers. The Airport was completely shut down for about 20 minutes. The storm also damaged ground avoidance radar used to track planes on the ground to prevent collisions. Damage was estimated at 10 million dollars not counting the cost to the 93 airliners. The storm moved south and struck Watkins Colorado with hail as large as 2 1/2 inches in diameter and winds gusting to 60 mph. 

[donsutherland1]

15 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Times like this I'm glad I don't live there anymore and have to deal with that. Any heat we get-a summer down there is absolute hell. And the years I was there-2015 and 16, the horrendous summer was bookended by record rain and flooding in both May 2015 and Oct. I did pick an interesting weather time to be there.  

I agree. It's brutal down there. I have some family and also friends in the Houston area. The combination of heat and humidity has been almost unbearable.

[winterwx21]

A lot of models now bring in the rain overnight wednesday night. I remember a couple days ago looking at the CMC and being surprised that it was bringing rain up into the area wednesday, since all other models had the rain staying south until the end of the week. It was slightly fast but it looks as if the CMC had the right idea bringing in the rain much earlier. 

Anyway I'm glad we're finally gonna bust out of this dry pattern. The ground here is already very dry again since we didn't get enough rain last week, so it's great that it looks likely that this pattern will deliver and give us the rain that we desperately need. 

[MANDA]

13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

A lot of models now bring in the rain overnight wednesday night. I remember a few days ago looking at the CMC and being surprised that it was bringing rain up into the area wednesday, since all other models had the rain staying south until the end of the week. It was slightly fast but it looks as if the CMC had the right idea bringing in the rain much earlier. 

Anyway I'm glad we're finally gonna bust out of this dry pattern. The ground here is already very dry again since we didn't get enough rain last week, so it's great that it looks likely that this pattern will deliver and give us the rain that we desperately need. 

Looks like a bona fide wetter pattern coming up with key ingredients coming into place.  Been a long time since we've had a deep layer southerly flow around here.  Would not be at all surprised to see some local 4" totals around this forum over the next 7 days.  This wetter pattern is going to really help lawns and gardens.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

6 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Pretty good discussion from Mt.Holly on the rain and thunderstorm potential over the next several days beginning Thursday.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Following a record dry May and a fairly dry start to June, the
northern mid-Atlantic is looking at an extended period of warm,
humid and rather wet weather for the end of the week, the
weekend, and even into next week. The flow throughout much of
the atmosphere will become well-aligned from the south, and
remain that way for much of the long term forecast period. Cut-
off low pressure over the Southeast US will only slowly lift
northward toward the Great Lakes, then drift eastward across our
region over the weekend. Meanwhile, longer range model guidance
is tentatively in good agreement of another fairly strong
upper-level trough ejecting eastward from the northern Rockies
toward the Great Lakes early next week. That system may amplify
as it settles into the long wave trough set up along the East
Coast, reinforcing warm, moist southerly flow across our region.
The airmass from Friday through the weekend looks quite
convective, and showers/t-storms will tend to be enhanced with 
daytime heating, particularly if there is any sunshine. While
it will not rain all the time, and any one day through this
period does not look anomalously moist for June, the pattern
will be capable of producing heavy rain, particularly with any
training convection or when the flow aloft weakens. Despite the
drought in some parts of our region, flooding may become an
issue particularly next week if this pattern comes to fruition
and the ground becomes more saturated. 

&&

If it were possible I'd be in 200% agreement.

WX/PT

[Allsnow]

 

[Allsnow]

33 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

@winterwx21 and @Stormlover74 hopefully this doesn’t disappoint 

[Stormlover74]

26 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@winterwx21 and @Stormlover74 hopefully this doesn’t disappoint 

I think every model has at least 2" for us by Monday. The gfs shifted the 3 to 5" amounts north of the area though

[FPizz]

28 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I think every model has at least 2" for us by Monday. The gfs shifted the 3 to 5" amounts north of the area though

Saturday on the CMC and Ukie didn't look too bad now.  Even on the GFS

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

@winterwx21 and @Stormlover74 hopefully this doesn’t disappoint 

Yeah our area often has such bad luck. Hopefully the heavy rains won't somehow find a way to miss us again. 

[Snowlover11]

hopefully we get a few drenchers

[MANDA]

44 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

hopefully we get a few drenchers

If I get anything less than 2" between 12Z Thursday - 6/22 and 12Z Thursday - 6/29 I will be extremely disappointed. 

 

[gravitylover]

Make it hold off until at least 11pm Wednesday. Thanx. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, gravitylover said:

Make it hold off until at least 11pm Wednesday. Thanx. 

Looks like it will start Thursday morning .

[2112wxgrl]

The CMC is the most promising for those hoping against a washout Saturday. I want the beneficial rains, just not on Saturday. But, what will be, will be.

[winterwx21]

3 hours ago, FPizz said:

Saturday on the CMC and Ukie didn't look too bad now.  Even on the GFS

And 12z Euro isn't showing much activity for the weekend and monday. Hopefully we'll get a good amount thursday and friday. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

And 12z Euro isn't showing much activity for the weekend and monday. Hopefully we'll get a good amount thursday and friday. 

For who ?

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

For who ?

For most of the area. Most of the rain on 12z Euro is thursday and friday. It's showing only isolated activity for the weekend. 

[donsutherland1]

An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through the remainder of June.

Tomorrow will be another fair day. Afterward, a potentially prolonged stretch of unsettled weather will develop.

Parts of Texas are in the midst of an extreme heat event. High temperatures through 6 pm CDT included:

Abilene: 108° (old record: 106°, 1934)
Austin: 106° (tied record set in 1934)
Brownsville: 98°
Corpus Christi: 99°
Cotulla: 115° (old record: 107°, 2019)
Del Rio: 113° (old record: 106°, 1996 and 1998) ***New all-time record***
Houston: 100°
Junction: 110° (old record: 104°, 1953) ***Record 6th 105°+ June day***
Laredo: 113° (old record: 109°, 1996 and 2011)
McAllen: 106° (old record: 103°, 2017)
San Angelo: 114° (old record: 110°, 1969) ***New all-time record***
San Antonio: 106° (old record: 103°, 1996)
Victoria: 98°
Zapata: 115° (old record: 107°, 1980)

At present, there is little indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was -22.71 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.631 today.

On June 18 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.203 (RMM). The June 17-adjusted amplitude was 0.605 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.5° (1.3° below normal).

 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

For most of the area. Most of the rain on 12z Euro is thursday and friday. It's showing only isolated activity for the weekend. 

It looks pretty widespread to me. 

[psv88]

Beautiful evening!

[SACRUS]

 

6/20

TEB: 79
PHL: 79
EWR: 78
NYC: 78
TTN: 76
LGA: 76
JFK: 75
New Brnswck: 74
ISP: 74
BLM: 71
ACY: 71

[winterwarlock]

4 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

For most of the area. Most of the rain on 12z Euro is thursday and friday. It's showing only isolated activity for the weekend. 

Good...we don't  need 4-5 inches of rain

 

1-2 inches are fine

 

Why are people rooting for 7 days of clouds at the total beginning  of summer

[SRRTA22]

1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

Good...we don't  need 4-5 inches of rain

 

1-2 inches are fine

 

Why are people rooting for 7 days of clouds at the total beginning  of summer

Sorry you spent all your warlock points on may where we had our sunniest may on record