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An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of June.

Tomorrow and Monday will be generally fair days. The pleasantly warm readings will continue through the Juneteenth holiday. Warmer conditions could begin to develop late in the week.

Parts of Texas are in the midst of an extreme heat event. High temperatures through 5 pm CDT included:

Austin: 96°
Corpus Christi: 100° (old record: 98°, 2011 and 2013)
Cotulla: 105°
Del Rio: 100°
Houston: 96°
Junction: 102°
Kingsville: 107° (old record: 101°, 1997)
Laredo: 109°
San Angelo: 105°
San Antonio: 94°

At present, there is little indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was -11.18 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.971 today.

On June 15 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.405 (RMM). The June 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.680 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (0.8° below normal).

 

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The next 8 days are averaging    75degs.(66/84) or +1.

Month to date is   68.4[-1.7].       Should be    70.5[-0.9] by the 26th.

Reached 80 yesterday at 6pm.

Today:   78-82, wind w. to sw., few clouds, 67 tomorrow AM.

66*(53%RH) here at 7am{was 64 at 6am}.    68* at 9am.      73* at Noon.     79* at 3pm.   81* at 4pm.    Reached 83* at 4:30pm.

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70 / 47 and mostly sunny.  A great fathers day shaping up low / mid 80s and dry.  Mon (6/19) similar to today mainly sunny and low 80s. Tue (6/20) / Wed (6/21) some scattered storms / showers and clouds hanging by as cut off into VA/NC sets up easterly flow with ridge pumping from the Rockies into the Plains and southern Canada.  By Thu (6/22) and Fri (6/23) cooler with ENE flow and continued chance of showers.  By next weekend the flow is going more southerly with much more humid weather and storm chances.  Flow keeps it warm but limits heat.  A more westerly component should allow for next 1 - 2 het spike 24th-25th. Front comes through by the 26th

 

Beyond there trough looking to dig into the GL/OV with warm SW flow into the area.  We'll have to see if the W. atl Ridge expands west to open the month.  Overall warmer transition and we'll see when pieces of the Rockies/TX / Southern Plain heat push east.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 

 

 

 

 

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Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 97 (1993)
LGA: 95 (1994)
NYC: 95 (1929)


Lows:

EWR: 49 (1950)
NYC: 48 (1950)
LGA: 49 (1950)

 

Historical:

1875 - A severe coastal storm (or possible hurricane) struck the Atlantic coast from Cape Cod to Nova Scotia. Eastport ME reported wind gusts to 57 mph. (David Ludlum)

1958 - Hailstones up to four inches in diameter killed livestock as a storm passed from Joliet to Belfry in Carbon County MT. (The Weather Channel)

1970 - Wind and rain, and hail up to seven inches deep, caused more than five million dollars damage at Oberlin KS. (The Weather Channel)

1972: Hurricane Agnes was one of the most massive June hurricanes on record. The system strengthened into a tropical storm during the night of the 15th and a hurricane on the 18th as it moved northward in the Gulf of Mexico.

1987 - It was a hot day in the Upper Great Lakes Region. Nine cities in Michigan and Wisconsin reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 90 degrees at Marquette, MI, marked their third straight day of record heat. Severe thunderstorm in the Northern and Central High Plains Region spawned half a dozen tornadoes in Wyoming and Colorado. Wheatridge, CO, was deluged with 2.5 inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms in eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota produced hail three inches in diameter and spawned four tornadoes in Steele County. Thunderstorms also produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Clearbrook MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. In Arizona, afternoon highs of 103 degrees at Winslow, 113 degrees at Tucson, and 115 degrees at Phoenix were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

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The June 1st - June 17th period for NYC ranks as the 55th coolest since 1869. More significant cooler periods in recent years are 2006, 2009, and 2012, all of which were cooler than the first 17 days of June 2023. 1998, 2003, and 2009 all featured significantly cooler weather than this June so far, and those 3 rank as the coolest June 1st- June 17th period in the past 40 years respectively. The table below shows the ranks from 1980 to present. NYC is ranked at 10 since 1980.

Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 17
Missing Count
1 1998-06-17 64.6 0
2 2003-06-17 64.8 0
3 2009-06-17 64.9 0
4 1982-06-17 65.5 0
5 1997-06-17 66.0 0
6 2006-06-17 67.4 0
7 2012-06-17 67.5 0
8 2002-06-17 67.6 0
9 1980-06-17 67.8 0
10 2023-06-17 68.4 0

 

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Long range forecasts verifying slightly cooler due to the cold pool to our east. This is the opposite model bias of recent years. So it will be interesting to see how long it lasts.

New run

980C31DB-711B-4009-86FA-80D6760A8609.thumb.png.ff296985bf63d7694e239bdbdabdb56c.png
 

 

Old run


1A5B570B-5452-4F8A-80FE-0677C0232362.thumb.png.b799523bc65232b3c728fd8c446b5ddc.png

 

DCE525D0-0800-4B8C-AF70-4ED9FF77FF1C.thumb.jpeg.b9283dbe950bd7713e71c5b6dbb2664f.jpeg

5C555915-9B61-4CCB-AF75-79367C68ABF6.thumb.jpeg.1d43cab23e64592976b084441571a426.jpeg

The "over the top" warmth is really impressive. 

Been a long while since we've see a cool pool in the NW Atlantic.  At a minimum it should help to maybe keep dp's and humidity somewhat in check over the summer if it persists.  At least knock them down a bit from where they would have been if the warm pool were present.  May also serve to make for less enhanced rainfall Summer into Fall, again if it persists.

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3 hours ago, MANDA said:

The "over the top" warmth is really impressive. 

Been a long while since we've see a cool pool in the NW Atlantic.  At a minimum it should help to maybe keep dp's and humidity somewhat in check over the summer if it persists.  At least knock them down a bit from where they would have been if the warm pool were present.  May also serve to make for less enhanced rainfall Summer into Fall, again if it persists.

Probably the strongest +AMO signature that we have ever seen.


F8CCFFD9-AC9B-4473-86A4-F692D9745B5A.thumb.jpeg.35184e8eec49e68d8f9d1d305d9d567a.jpeg

 

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