June 2023

[IrishRob17]

58 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

More surface smoke tomorrow

FWIW the 12z HRRR has most of that staying off the surface but it'll muck up the sky for sure when you look at the Vertically Integrated run

[Brian5671]

40 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Regular NAM has just a quarter to half inch for most. RGEM has our area right near the edge with the heavy rain amounts missing just to the south. There's good potential for tomorrow but as you said it could also be a bust for some. I really hope tomorrow works out for our area since the other 2 threats this week didn't produce the heavy rain amounts that we really need. 

Most should get rains b/w tomorrow Saturday and next week-seems like a chance every 2-3 days

[Allsnow]

44 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Regular NAM has just a quarter to half inch for most. RGEM has our area right near the edge with the heavy rain amounts missing just to the south. There's good potential for tomorrow but as you said it could also be a bust for some. I really hope tomorrow works out for our area since the other 2 threats this week didn't produce the heavy rain amounts that we really need. 

Brutal. Our area just can’t win 

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Brutal. Our area just can’t win 

Let's hope we finally get lucky tomorrow. Amazing that we haven't had a heavy rain event here since the late April event. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Let's hope we finally get lucky tomorrow. Amazing that we haven't had a heavy rain event here since the late April event. 

My sump pump ran for 3 days after that event. It’s been bone dry ever since 

[Stormlover74]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Brutal. Our area just can’t win 

Hopefully the euro's right

[Stormlover74]

Shocking 

 

[lee59]

Second year in a row here with a very dry condition at this time of year. Temps have been pleasant, no real hot weather and cool at night. Currently 77 degrees.

[Stormlover74]

6 hours ago, Allsnow said:

3k nam says we get nothing 

and now it drenches us. not to be trusted

[Brian5671]

29 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

and now it drenches us. not to be trusted

[MANDA]

12 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

There is general meso model consensus that if you live in NW NJ, roughly north of 80 and west of 287 you are going to be left wanting.  Hopefully we can get a bit of a NW shift.  I'm hoping for at least a .50" but that could end up being wishful thinking if trends persist.

[donsutherland1]

An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of June.

Tomorrow will start fair but showers and perhaps a thundershower are likely late in the day or at night. Ahead of the showers, the sky could be whitened by wildfire smoke that will be passing aloft. The pleasantly warm readings will continue through the Juneteenth holiday.

Parts of Texas are in the early stages of an extreme heat event. At present, there is no indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was -4.92 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.427 today.

On June 13 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.619 (RMM). The June 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.439 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.8° (1.0° below normal).

 

[Allsnow]

6 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Shocking 

 

Haha. I guess they like the 12z 3k nam 

[SRRTA22]

I think we're good for an inch tomorrow , we do well with warm front convection

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, MANDA said:

There is general meso model consensus that if you live in NW NJ, roughly north of 80 and west of 287 you are going to left wanting.  Hopefully we can get a bit of a NW shift.  I'm hoping for at least a .50" but that could end up being wishful thinking if trends persist.

S NJ will do well because it always does these days, people east of the city will be waiting for what convection can survive once it hits the water. Rinse (or not since many of us are bone dry) and repeat. Doesn’t matter what any meso model says which will flip on its head next run anyway. 

[winterwx21]

0z HRRR has the convection and heavy rain amounts for southern NJ with only a little rain up here. With the severe threat to the south I'm not expecting much rain up here and believe the frustration with this long dry stretch will continue, but I'm hoping for a positive surprise. 

[SACRUS]

 

6/15

ACY: 82
EWR: 82
JFK: 80
PHL: 79
BLM: 79
New Brnswck: 79
TEB: 79
LGA: 79
TTN: 79
ISP: 78
NYC: 77

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Most of the models now seeming to adjusting to a considerably warmer look for the last 8 days of June. We'll see if they don't flip back to the extremely wet pattern but the 00Z models tonight so far showing an outside shot at 90 on at least a couple of days in the last 8 days of of the month. The coastal storms and inside runners of only a couple of days back seem to have pretty much vanished on the most recent maps. 

WX/PT

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Most of the models now seeming to adjusting to a considerably warmer look for the last 8 days of June. We'll see if they don't flip back to the extremely wet pattern but the 00Z models tonight so far showing an outside shot at 90 on at least a couple of days in the last 8 days of of the month. The coastal storms and inside runners of only a couple of days back seem to have pretty much vanished on the most recent maps. 

WX/PT

I'm a bit skeptical of this sudden flip but we'll see. 

[Rtd208]

The models appear to be really struggling with this pattern and the developing El Nino.

[Allsnow]

9 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

0z HRRR has the convection and heavy rain amounts for southern NJ with only a little rain up here. With the severe threat to the south I'm not expecting much rain up here and believe the frustration with this long dry stretch will continue, but I'm hoping for a positive surprise. 

This might be our last chance at rain for a while. Next week looks dry now 

[TWCCraig]

You can notice on days with smoke in the sky the temperatures are a bit slower to rise in the morning. It would be equivalent to the sun rising 10-20 minutes later than it is. I wonder how much cooling the smoke has had over the past several weeks. Albeit probably not a whole lot in the grand scheme of things, but you can't argue temps wouldn't be slightly warmer if we had 100% full sun. 

[forkyfork]

here comes the heat

[bluewave]

Big change in the North Atlantic SST configuration. First time with a cold pool off the Northeast in years. Not sure how long this will last. 
 

[SACRUS]

 

74 / 56 Partly sunny but that will be fleeting as clouds and showers are approaching out of EPA.  Scattered storms some strong (plenty of details and discussion).  Sat looking better but we will have some lingering clouds and scattered showers.  Fathers Day (6/18) look amazing near 80 / low 80s.  

 

As the ridge and heat build and expand out of the Rockies / southern Plains / TX into the GL and EC, trough backs in and cuts off below into the VA/ Carolinas.  Starting to see a more similar progression as we did Memorial Day where we have strong onshore to keep heat west and north of us, but latest guidance (and we'll have to track trends) keeps bulk of the rain south of us.  Id still go near / below normal and rain chance 6/19 - 6/26 but tendecies could keep us shielded.

 

Beyond there ridge and heights build into east and flow comes around to the south/ south west with next warm and heat  potential to close the month.  Western Atlantic Ridge may come west to open the month.  Both ECM and GFS have tropical lows in the way out there but more to come.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 98 (1952)
NYC: 97 (1891)
LGA: 96 (1991)

 

Lows:

EWR: 52 (1950)
NYC: 52 (1927)
LGA: 55 (1961)

 

Historical:

 

1806 - A total eclipse of the sun was viewed from southern California to Massachusetts. (David Ludlum)

(5 minute total eclipse https://www.greatamericaneclipse.com/19th-century/ ) 

1895: Heavy rain fell in portions of central Arkansas, damaging several roads and bridges. At Madding, east of Pine Bluff, 6.12 inches of rain fell in six hours.

1917 - The temperature soared to 124 degrees at Mecca climaxing the most destructive heat wave of record in California history. (David Ludlum)

1944 - A tornado in Sioux City, IA, traveled an odd course. It spun in one place for about twenty minutes, made a U-turn, traveled southeast for about three miles, then traveled south, east, north, and finally east again. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Temperatures soared above 100 degrees in the Upper Midwest, reaching 104 degrees at Lincoln, NE. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 96 mph at Valley City, ND, and baseball size hail near Red Oak, IA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - After a brief respite, hot weather returned to the Northern High Plains Region. Late night thunderstorms in Montana produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Polson and north of Lake Seeley. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Daytime thunderstorms produced severe weather from northern Florida to the Middle Atlantic Coast. The thunderstorms spawned eight tornadoes, and there were 138 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 87 mph caused twenty million dollars damage at Columbia SC. Strong thunderstorm winds killed one person at McLeansville NC. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1992: A devastating tornado ravaged portions of southwest Minnesota. Commonly referred to as the Chandler-Lake Wilson tornado, this tornado destroyed more than 75 homes, with another 90 houses, 10 businesses, a church, and a school damaged. In addition, the tornado caused over $50 million in property damage, resulting in more than 40 injuries and one fatality. Based on a detailed damage assessment by the National Weather Service, it is estimated this F5 tornado packed winds over 260 mph as it tore through the residential area of Chandler, Minnesota. This was the only F5 tornado to occur in the United States in 1992.

 

 2014: The Pilger tornado was the most intense of the family of tornadoes produced by the supercell. This tornado developed about 6 miles southwest of the town of Pilger and moved northeast, directly striking the city. Initially narrow and relatively weak, the tornado significantly intensified as it neared the Elkhorn River and moved into town. The tornado cut a path through town, destroying numerous homes and businesses. The tornado was responsible for 1 fatality in the town of Pilger and several injuries before moving northeast and weakening. During a weakening period, the tornado again intensified, producing additional violent damage 4 miles northeast of Pilger. Finally, the tornado narrowed, weakened, and turned east, wrapping around the developing Wakefield tornado before dissipating. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Omaha, Nebraska. 

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    73degs.(64/83) or Near Normal.

Reached 84 here yesterday at 6pm.

Today:    75-80, wind w. to ne., cloudy/rain by 3pm, 64 tomorrow AM.

68*(70%RH) here at 7am{was 67 at 6am}.       70* at 9am.      72*at 10am.        75* at Noon.       66* at 3pm.   (TS's    about 2pm)      Reached 77* at 6pm.

Warning:   GFS goes (70/91) or +6 starting the first day of summer to end of month.

[Stormlover74]

Be lucky to get a half inch today

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Be lucky to get a half inch today

Just pathetic.  All these longer range large rain events go "poof" as we get to go time.  Has been going on for months with only a few exceptions.  The rain of this past week is only going to go so far as we head into a drier and warmer pattern.

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

This might be our last chance at rain for a while. Next week looks dry now 

Yup. This period that was supposed to bust us out of the dry pattern is probably going to end up being a bust. I think we'll probably be heading into the moderate drought zone in the next few weeks. Horrible. 

I'm not very optimistic about today. Most of it is probably going to stay south. NAM 3km now gives us nothing again. I'm hoping we can get under a downpour to give us a half inch to at least give the gardens a decent watering, but we could just as easily get little to nothing.