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Stormlover74
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7 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

Looks like the visibility is going down a little bit outhere. Still very smoky when looking into the distance. Visibility was around 8 miles at ISP around 1pm, now it's down to 3 miles

Smoke/air quality seem to be worse on the south shore. Sea breeze might be bringing it back north. HRRR predicted that. 

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25 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Smoke/air quality seem to be worse on the south shore. Sea breeze might be bringing it back north. HRRR predicted that. 

Definitely the smokiest I’ve seen thus far today in Brightwaters 

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49 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Smoke/air quality seem to be worse on the south shore. Sea breeze might be bringing it back north. HRRR predicted that. 

Interestingly, I was on the north shore when I posted that. Seems that there's pockets of thicker smoke in certain areas. Visibility down to 2.5 miles at ISP, though it doesn't look as bad now as it was before (I'm back on the south shore now), the smoke was thick earlier. I was very surprised given how clear it was around noon/late morning

And yes, the sea breeze would bring in more smoke as there's less mixing out

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An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least mid-month and likely beyond it.

The generally dry weather will continue with perhaps a few showers or thundershowers through Saturday. There is growing potential for a significant rainfall Monday through Tuesday.

The latest ECMWF weeklies have backed off the development of sustained warmer than normal conditions after the second week of June. The warmth is delayed until late in the month, but that's a low-skill forecasting range.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. El Niño conditions are developing.

The SOI was +8.22 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.628 today.

On June 6 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.598 (RMM). The June 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.449 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.4° (0.6° below normal).

 

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we'll get more smoke at some point

"On many of the fires we don’t even try. A number of these fires are huge boreal gobblers (I am currently assigned to a 250,000 ha fire, well over 600,000 acres and you could fit  the org. chart on one side of a beer can).

The only thing that is going to put out this fire out and many across the country is winter, 5 months from now. It’s going to be a long, smoky summer for everyone."

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32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not everyone 

Teachers had to go in tomorrow and high school was open. Not anymore. 

From Newsday:

New York City schools said students in certain grades and schools will switch to remote learning Friday, due to the poor air quality, while others were taking it off anyway for staff development.

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The next 8 days are averaging    71degs.(62/80) or Near Normal.

Month to date is    66.8[-1.9].       Should be about     68.9[-1.0] by June 17.

Reached 75 here yesterday at 3pm.

Today:   71-75, wind nw. to s., variable clouds, 60 tomorrow AM.

60*(68%RH) here at 7am{was 59 at 6am}.      62* at 8am.      65* at 11am.      67* at Noon.     68* at 1pm.      71* at 3pm.      74* at 3:30pm.

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