June 2023

[Volcanic Winter]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Cool summer so far...feels like a drier version of 2009

Dec ‘09 had a monster snowstorm while I was living in Long Branch going to school. Often gets overshadowed by Boxing Day a year later, but that storm was a beast and I have equally vivid memories of it as Boxing Day. 

Really crying into my Lucky Charms that we have a decent winter this year…

[Picard]

Low of 40 at home in Sparta.  The heat kicked back on.  

There are lots of 30s in NW NJ, including a low of 33 at Walpack.  I wonder if anyone observed any frost.

[FPizz]

41 last night.

[BucksCO_PA]

Impressive chill this morning at several locations for your neighbors to the west.

Trenton - 45 degrees, 1 shy of the record from 1932

ABE - 42 degrees, 2nd lowest for the date behind 39 also in 1932

MPO - 34 degrees, 3rd lowest for the date & the coolest since 32 degrees in 1944

[allgame830]

Is the smoke supposed to tick up back again this afternoon? Because this morning seems better than yesterday. 

[Intensewind002]

The air still has a bitter taste here, a lot of surface smoke/haze still remains from yesterday

[uofmiami]

9 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Is the smoke supposed to tick up back again this afternoon? Because this morning seems better than yesterday. 

HRRR has one last shot around 7pm until midnight but not sure it’ll get to surface. After that appears Friday gets better compared to what we have been going through. 

[allgame830]

6 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

HRRR has one last shot around 7pm until midnight but not sure it’ll get to surface. After that appears Friday gets better compared to what we have been going through. 

Good. I do smell the smoke again when I didn’t about 2 hours ago. 

[gravitylover]

Better but the AQI of ~170 here still sucks. 

 

[MANDA]

Meanwhile back at the ranch.  Latest Drought Monitor shows large expansion of Abnormally Dry into upstate NY and western NJ.   Seems to me more of NJ should be in the abnormally dry category!?  Large expansion of Moderate Drought across PA.  Hope we can get some meaningful rains Monday/Tuesday around here.  Badly needed.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Sky is hazy. With a hint of blue. No more smoke smell. 

[Tatamy]

AQI is still quite nasty in many places but looks better than yesterday so far.

 

[nycwinter]

here in the city you smell the smoke but lucky i was wearing a kn95 mask.. under my hoodie..

[nycwinter]

2 hours ago, Picard said:

Low of 40 at home in Sparta.  The heat kicked back on.  

There are lots of 30s in NW NJ, including a low of 33 at Walpack.  I wonder if anyone observed any frost.

i had the heat on as well did not think i would not be doing that in june..

[nycwinter]

interesting think about the smoke it can interfere in the sun  warming us up but does not interfere in radiational cooling..like clouds can..

[SnowDemon]

15 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

here in the city you smell the smoke but lucky i was wearing a kn95 mask.. under my hoodie..

Maybe it's my sinuses, but I'm in Queens and can't smell the smoke now. It was unmistakable yesterday.

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Meanwhile back at the ranch.  Latest Drought Monitor shows large expansion of Abnormally Dry into upstate NY and western NJ.   Seems to me more of NJ should be in the abnormally dry category!?  Large expansion of Moderate Drought across PA.  Hope we can get some meaningful rains Monday/Tuesday around here.  Badly needed.

I agree. It's crazy that my county still isn't in abnormally dry. On the edge of it on that map, but we should be well into the abnormally dry category. In May we had only 1 day with significant rain here (May 20th about .75), and the ground is absolutely parched now. Lawns that haven't been watered have burned out. 

If it doesn't change soon we're heading towards a terrible drought this summer. Hoping for a decent rainfall early next week, but it isn't looking that impressive. Last night's Euro did give us a decent half inch to three quarters of an inch rainfall. I'm hoping we can pull that off to give the gardens a decent watering, but some other models are not as bullish. 

[winterwx21]

Yeah it's much better out there today. Can't smell smoke anymore and a lot of sun is getting through. Still not good air quality, but it's getting down to a low enough level that's it's more of a concern for sensitive groups. I did do yardwork/gardening yesterday and the smoke didn't cause me to have any symptoms, but obviously it wasn't a good idea to do intense exercise outdoors so I cancelled my run. I will go for my run this afternoon though since it's much better out there. 

[MANDA]

5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I agree. It's crazy that my county still isn't in abnormally dry. On the edge of it on that map, but we should be well into the abnormally dry category. In May we had only 1 day with significant rain here (May 20th about .75), and the ground is absolutely parched now. Lawns that haven't been watered have burned out. 

If it doesn't change soon we're heading towards a terrible drought this summer. Hoping for a decent rainfall early next week, but it isn't looking that impressive. Last night's Euro did give us a decent half inch to three quarters of an inch rainfall. I'm hoping we can pull that off to give the gardens a decent watering, but some other models are not as bullish. 

Yes, guidance has been gradually scaling back over the last several cycles.  Euro at this point is the only op model offering anything decent.  If the Euro fails and the other guidance is closer to reality it will do nothing to ease the dryness.  I'm still thinking .50" - 1" is a reasonable possibility.  Especially over NNJ.  CNJ and SNJ not looking hopeful with developing pattern for next week.  THANKFULLY temperatures have been normal or just below.  Can't imagine if we had upper 80's+ with bright sunny skies, would be much worse for soil moisture.

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Yes, guidance has been gradually scaling back over the last several cycles.  Euro at this point is the only op model offering anything decent.  If the Euro fails and the other guidance is closer to reality it will do nothing to ease the dryness.  I'm still thinking .50" - 1" is a reasonable possibility.  Especially over NNJ.  CNJ and SNJ not looking hopeful with developing pattern for next week.  THANKFULLY temperatures have been normal or just below.  Can't imagine if we had upper 80's+ with bright sunny skies, would be much worse for soil moisture.

Last summer was bone dry but it did not start until late June.  So this year we have a 2 month head start...

[MANDA]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Last summer was bone dry but it did not start until late June.  So this year we have a 2 month head start...

Yes and these dry patterns are hard to fully break without a tropical system or the hopeful return of Fall rainy pattern.  Will be interesting to see how this evolves.  I'm leaning toward the dry pattern more or less persisting.  Drought begets drought and drought can beget heat although pattern has been very persistent in keeping heat away so far.  Just a NW flow of dry air with trof axis just to our east.  Seems ridge is getting ready to build over the southern plains.  Hopefully it stays there and does not move bodily east.  Not expecting that but we'll see.

[MJO812]

Mayor closing schools tomorrow 

 

Everyone going remote 

[nycwinter]

we need something we have not had in a long time.. a humid pattern in nyc i can not recall that into june how dry the dewpoints continue to be..

[nycwinter]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mayor closing schools tomorrow 

 

Everyone going remote 

schools were scheduled to be closed these 2 days for anniversary and clerical day..

[nycwinter]

well it looks much better now then it did this morning.. so i guess that is a start..

[psv88]

AQI down to 143 here, we take. 

[Picard]

Look at Cape May and the Delmarva now stuck in the mid-50s, presumably due to the smoke.

[Wannabehippie]

Air quality index is "only" at 164 in Astoria today. It was much worse yesterday.

 

 

[uofmiami]

13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

AQI down to 143 here, we take. 

I question how accurate the number since it has Great Neck to Syosset, all with that same number.  Most likely not enough monitoring stations on LI to be more accurate.  Only 1 in Nassau & 1 in Suffolk.  We can all tell from our nose though & the brighter sun that today is much better than the last 24 hrs.  Hopefully the trend continues after the next brief round of smoke later this evening & tonight per the HRRR.

[jm1220]

28 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

I question how accurate the number since it has Great Neck to Syosset, all with that same number.  Most likely not enough monitoring stations on LI to be more accurate.  Only 1 in Nassau & 1 in Suffolk.  We can all tell from our nose though & the brighter sun that today is much better than the last 24 hrs.  Hopefully the trend continues after the next brief round of smoke later this evening & tonight per the HRRR.

The ULL over the Maritimes is shifting enough to start driving the smoke further west and shifting enough to not let it funnel like it’s been doing straight from the source-disperse it more. But what helps us probably hurts for the OH Valley, Great Lakes etc. Also their fire season is just beginning. We need a good westerly flow pattern to keep it away, not this cutoff/maritime garbage pattern that might bring it right back. Whatever the actual AQI here, yesterday was horrendous. I have no breathing problem but I was coughing and eyes stinging after not even 30 seconds in it.