BucksCO_PA Posted June 5, 2023 Share Posted June 5, 2023 PA, NJ & NY among 11 states & DC that did not record a single severe weather report for May. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted June 5, 2023 Share Posted June 5, 2023 Somewhat notable signal for perhaps some needed rainfall in about a week from the 12Z guidance. CMC not as robust as EURO/GFS. Looks like another complex upper low evolution early next week from the Great Lakes to the eventually the Northeast. Pattern might have some teeth so worth watching as the week progresses. Until then just some hit or miss showers / T-Showers tomorrow and Thursday. If you get rained on either day consider yourself lucky. Tomorrow better chances over Thursday. By the end of the GFS run ridge building over the Southern Plains with HOT conditions developing over the south central U.S. Widespread 90's and 100+ once past mid month that area. Time will tell if it makes a push north and east near the end of June or so. That potentially evolving pattern may help to enhance rainfall chances around here for second half of June. Rest of the week will feature near to below normal temperatures as upper low over/off New England dominates flow pattern over the Northeast. Not a fan of intense heat so I'll take it. I'll also take some rain. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 5, 2023 Share Posted June 5, 2023 Evening rush hour could be quite smoky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 5, 2023 Share Posted June 5, 2023 An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least mid-month. Tomorrow will be partly sunny and pleasantly warm. However, thick smoke from ongoing Canadian wildfires will create for unhealthy air. The smoke could be especially thick in and around the New York City area during the evening rush hour. The latest ECMWF weeklies suggest that sustained warmer than normal conditions could develop during or after the second week of June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. El Niño conditions are developing. The SOI was -7.24 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.316 today. On June 3 the MJO data was not available. The June 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.205 (RMM) in Phase 1. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted June 5, 2023 Share Posted June 5, 2023 With the exception of the brief 2 days warmth June 1st-2nd the cool late spring into early summer continues. Though we could see another brief shot at warmth or a day of heat sometime between the 12th and 20th any prolonged heat should wait until after June 22nd. I'm forecasting temperatures this summer here to average near to below normal temperatures but with several very hot periods. I believe it's a summer of extremes, when it's hot it could be very hot and when it's cool it could be very cool. And I believe this summer will have its share of cool wet weather as well with precipitation overall near normal. WX/PT 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 5, 2023 Share Posted June 5, 2023 Pretty sweet unedited pic. Love the red halo around it. Put my binoculars up to my phone and caught this 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 47 minutes ago, FPizz said: Pretty sweet unedited pic. Love the red halo around it. Put my binoculars up to my phone and caught this the sun is becoming a red giant 5 billion years sooner then anticipated.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 6/5 EWR: 80 New Brnswck: 78 ACY: 78 PHL: 78 TTN: 78 LGA: 77 TEB: 77 JFK: 77 BLM: 76 NYC: 76 ISP: 74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 1 hour ago, FPizz said: Pretty sweet unedited pic. Love the red halo around it. Put my binoculars up to my phone and caught this Was just talking to Ryan and Boone. It's so hazy and smells like a fire out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least mid-month. Tomorrow will be partly sunny and pleasantly warm. However, thick smoke from ongoing Canadian wildfires will create for unhealthy air. The smoke could be especially thick in and around the New York City area during the evening rush hour. The latest ECMWF weeklies suggest that sustained warmer than normal conditions could develop during or after the second week of June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. El Niño conditions are developing. The SOI was -7.24 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.316 today. On June 3 the MJO data was not available. The June 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.205 (RMM) in Phase 1. Upton’s thoughts and an Air Quality Alert was posted this afternoon for some sections of the forecast area. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 824 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023 NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... The band of showers rotating through New London County and the twin forks of Long Island is a little later, and updated the probabilities to keep a chance through 01Z. Also updated the sky cover to expand coverage westward into northeastern New Jersey based on latest satellite. Otherwise forecast is on track, with minor updates for current temperatures. An upper level trough over the northeast supports the deepening of a surface low pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes through tonight and into the middle of the week. A wave of energy embedded in the trough dives south into Western New York tonight and into early Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the 50s with the warmest locations at the coast and near NYC. Wildfires in Quebec are producing a significant amount of smoke that will make its way over the area tonight and into the day on Tuesday. While much of the smoke should be above the surface, there will likely be noticeably hazy skies on Tuesday with a low chance of some patchy smoke near the surface, as indicated by the HRRR smoke model fields. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 i can see the smoke in car headlights 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 I drove up to Rochester today and the smoke got progressively worse. Visibility is well under 10 miles where I am now in Seneca Falls. AQI is over 150 and my eyes hurt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 the models show the same fetch through friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob brooklyn Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: i can see the smoke in car headlights I got nervous thought something was wrong with my eyes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob brooklyn Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 Cool moon out. Almost like a blood moon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 Red flag warnings up. Risk is higher than normal with very dry fuels present Dry Tstorms will add to the risk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 Latest run of the HRRR suggests an intense plume of smoke settles in tomorrow to New York and Pennsylvania, both aloft and with a significant near surface component. Surface visibility is forecast to drop to one mile at times. If this is correct, I would expect near record-breaking levels of air pollution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 67degs.(59/74) or -4. Reached 78 yesterday at 5:30pm. Today: 74-78, wind w. to nw.-breezy, variable clouds, rain 2pm-6pm?, 60 tomorrow AM. No real rain till June 12/13. 63*(45%RH) here at 7am. 63* at 9am. 64* at 10am. 70* at Noon. 72* at 1pm. 77* at 2pm. 79* at 3pm---minor thunder some rain. 80*(32%RH) at 4pm. 81*(30%RH) at 5pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 Smoky sunrise. The sun was not visible until 29 minutes after sunrise. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 Smoke from Farmingdale 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 Temps climbing slower than usual. Smoke is blocking out most of the sun. Lots of near ground smoke too, can see it in the distance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 Thunderstorm currently here near KSWF. moving south south/eastward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 Finally seeing some semblance of sunshine at 8:15 AM. Cool, almost raw morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 the hrrr has even denser smoke tomorrow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 13 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Thunderstorm currently here near KSWF. moving south south/eastward. With the smoke, would any rain leave be like dirty? Like when it is done leave a black film or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, FPizz said: With the smoke, would any rain leave be like dirty? Like when it is done leave a black film or something? Not sure. Currently there is nothing in the rain that is currently falling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Not sure. Currently there is nothing in the rain that is currently falling. A good amount of lightning and loud thunder with that storm which moved right between my office and my house. A couple sprinkles in Goshen and nothing showing on the tipper at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 7 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Not sure. Currently there is nothing in the rain that is currently falling. I did see this from the SPC for the mid-atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted June 6, 2023 Share Posted June 6, 2023 Some pretty high readings, into the unhealthy for all category, not just sensitive groups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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