June 2023

[Stormlover74]

As we begin summer it looks like we'll start off the month with some heat. 90 in the normally hot spots and continued very dry the first week

[Stormlover74]

Euro for Sunday 

 

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro for Sunday 

 

wish it wasn't on an island

[Dan76]

FWIW 

 

[MJO812]

Sunday looks rainy 

[weathermedic]

No mention of rain during the weekend from this afternoon's OKX AFD:

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fcst confidence from Thu into daytime Fri fairly high, as an
upper ridge to the west and a broad trough to the south both
persist. Enough ridging aloft should remain in place to keep the
southern sys from impacting our wx, meanwhile we should turn
progressively warmer Thu into Fri, with highs in the 80s on Thu
away from south facing shores, and reaching the lower 90s NW of
NYC on Fri, a good 5-10 deg above normal along the coast and
10-15 deg above normal inland.

Timing of a back door cold fropa Fri night/Sat still in
question, with the GFS faster than the ECMWF. Because of this
kept high temps on Sat a little warmer than NBM, with near 80 NW
of NYC and reaching the mid/upper 70s elsewhere. As high
pressure to the north builds in through the rest of the
weekend, temps should trend to within a few degrees either side
of normal from Sunday through Tuesday, with Sunday the coolest
of the three days (upper 60s east to mid 70s west).

Another cold front may pass on Tue. ECMWF and GFS are in close
agreement with the 30/12Z cycle, but run-to-run timing and
position of wx systems has been inconsistent given model
difficulty handling the overall blocky pattern aloft extending
from ern NoAm across the northern Atlantic, so fropa could be
delayed into Wed.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

No mention of rain during the weekend from this afternoon's OKX AFD:

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fcst confidence from Thu into daytime Fri fairly high, as an
upper ridge to the west and a broad trough to the south both
persist. Enough ridging aloft should remain in place to keep the
southern sys from impacting our wx, meanwhile we should turn
progressively warmer Thu into Fri, with highs in the 80s on Thu
away from south facing shores, and reaching the lower 90s NW of
NYC on Fri, a good 5-10 deg above normal along the coast and
10-15 deg above normal inland.

Timing of a back door cold fropa Fri night/Sat still in
question, with the GFS faster than the ECMWF. Because of this
kept high temps on Sat a little warmer than NBM, with near 80 NW
of NYC and reaching the mid/upper 70s elsewhere. As high
pressure to the north builds in through the rest of the
weekend, temps should trend to within a few degrees either side
of normal from Sunday through Tuesday, with Sunday the coolest
of the three days (upper 60s east to mid 70s west).

Another cold front may pass on Tue. ECMWF and GFS are in close
agreement with the 30/12Z cycle, but run-to-run timing and
position of wx systems has been inconsistent given model
difficulty handling the overall blocky pattern aloft extending
from ern NoAm across the northern Atlantic, so fropa could be
delayed into Wed.

Look at the models . It all depends on the cold front.

[MJO812]

Gfs is now wet for Sunday while the Euro and CMC are dry

[forkyfork]

look at that nice hot canadian air in the trough

 

[SACRUS]

back into the 80s to open the month Thu (6/1) and some stray 90 degree readings Fri (6/2) before a sharp change as strong NE flow pushes backdoor front through on Sat (6/3).  Sat may stay in the low 60s or lower with clouds and drizzle (ugly day).  Sun (6/4) perhaps a bit to clear out and remaining cool.

Trough builds down next week ECM a bit flatter, GFS cuts off low and spins waves around it with rain chances next Tue - Wed (6/7).  

Beyond there heights are rising by the 9th and warmer push into the area.  ECM much more robust on potential above normal, GFS closer to normal till md month.

 

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

look at that nice hot canadian air in the trough

 

when forky posts i expect him to gloat about how hot it is going to get always has to be a debbie downer.. why cant he bring good news like a tropical storm or cloudy rainy cool days..

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

when forky posts i expect him to gloat about how hot it is going to get always has to be a debbie downer.. why cant he bring good news like a tropical storm or cloudy rainy cool days..

You should move to Seattle. 

[Brian5671]

27 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

You should move to Seattle. 

Eureka CA--every day it's in the 60's and it's often misty/drizzle/fog.  

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Eureka CA--every day it's in the 60's and it's often misty/drizzle/fog.  

I've been there (and Crescent City) a few times and only seen perfect COC weather. It's actually one of the few regions I'd love to move to when we can (finally) leave NY. I've also been to Seattle a few times and never saw anything other than sunny days. 

[winterwx21]

Some widely scattered activity with the backdoor front late friday into saturday, but other than that no rain in sight. Only 1 day of rain for the whole month of May ... brutal. The grass is already starting to burn out and we'll have to keep watering gardens frequently to keep them going. Horrible. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Some widely scattered activity with the backdoor front late friday into saturday, but other than that no rain in sight. Only 1 day of rain for the whole month of May ... brutal. The grass is already starting to burn out and we'll have to keep watering gardens frequently to keep them going. Horrible. 

Even here where we got 2.50 inches of rain earlier this month it's drying out fast with the low humidity and high sun angle

[MANDA]

Rainfall here 2.85" for May.  Majority of that fell on 5/1 with 1.96".  First 7 days 2.31".  Between 5/7 and today only .54".  Last 3 weeks have been very dry.

Non watered lawns in full or even part sun drying / browning very quickly.    Watering flowers and garden almost daily.  Lawn might become a losing battle if this keeps up much longer.  I don't want to waste water + it gets expensive. 

[winterwx21]

Here the 1 rainy day we had in May delivered only about three quarters of an inch. The ground is absolutely parched now. 

[winterwx21]

16 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Rainfall here 2.85" for May.  Majority of that fell on 5/1 with 1.96".  First 7 days 2.31".  Between 5/7 and today only .54".  Last 3 weeks have been very dry.

Non watered lawns in full or even part sun drying / browning very quickly.    Watering flowers and garden almost daily.  Lawn might become a losing battle if this keeps up much longer.  I don't want to waste water + it gets expensive. 

I believe that big rain was actually the last day of April. I know here we've had only 1 day the whole month in which we got significant rain (May 20th). 

[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I believe that big rain was actually the last day of April. I know here we've had only 1 day the whole month in which we got significant rain (May 20th). 

It was mostly from 4/30.  I report to CoCoRaHS so I was using my CoCoRaHS report for 5/1 (7am 4/30 to 7am 5/1) for the 1.96". 

No matter how you slice it like you said the ground (especially top soil) is parched and not likely to get better over the next week or so at least.

[MANDA]

Very solid signal from 12Z guidance for a first class soaking for Northeast New England next week.  Especially eastern MA into NH and ME.  Final details to be worked out on how it evolves but setting up for a good soaking over that part of the Northeast.  Elsewhere not so much.  Could be highly anomalous upper air and surface evolution. 

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Very solid signal from 12Z guidance for a first class soaking for Northeast New England next week.  Especially eastern MA into NH and ME.  Final details to be worked out on how it evolves but setting up for a good soaking over that part of the Northeast.  Elsewhere not so much.  Could be highly anomalous upper air and surface evolution. 

UKMET is further SW over NJ with the goods...but yes a signal for something big somewhere

[CIK62]

May ended at  62.7[-0.5].

The first 8 days of June are averaging   66degs.(57/75) or -3.

Reached 73 here yesterday at 7pm.

Today:  78-83, wind e. to s., m. sunny, 64 tomorrow AM.

63*(84%RH) here at 7am{was 61 at 6am}.     67* at 9am.      68* at Noon.      69* at 1pm.     70* at 2pm.      76* at 5pm.      Reached 79* at 6:30pm.

Current average for June is 72.0---just 0.6 greater than the 30 Year Normal in the 60's.

[Brian5671]

GFS and Euro are much warmer now for Sat while the meso models are chilly with temps in the upper 50's with strong NE winds...probably go with meso's on a back door setup.

[Volcanic Winter]

I actually cannot fathom that we’re now six months into 2023. Our shitshow of a winter still feels like yesterday, and now it’s only six months to my favorite month of the year (December). While I’m going to enjoy the summer months as best I can (though hoping we don’t have another protracted heat + dew streak, just give me dry + couple days of rain then repeat), I have to confess to already starting to day dream about next winter. It can’t be any worse, right? 

Maybe we luck with a high end moderate Niño and have a chance at a classic winter. Two back to back stinkers would simply be untenable. 

Regardless, enjoy the nice weather while we have it. I’ve already begun reading the tea leaves on other sub forums looking ahead.

[JustinRP37]

4 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I actually cannot fathom that we’re now six months into 2023. Our shitshow of a winter still feels like yesterday, and now it’s only six months to my favorite month of the year (December). While I’m going to enjoy the summer months as best I can (though hoping we don’t have another protracted heat + dew streak, just give me dry + couple days of rain then repeat), I have to confess to already starting to day dream about next winter. It can’t be any worse, right? 

Maybe we luck with a high end moderate Niño and have a chance at a classic winter. Two back to back stinkers would simply be untenable. 

Regardless, enjoy the nice weather while we have it. I’ve already begun reading the tea leaves on other sub forums looking ahead.

I don’t know the longer it stays cool, the more I feel our luck for next winter will change and we will torch. I know it doesn’t work like that, but I am worried about that. 

[Brian5671]

Strong Nino for next winter would not expect much in the way of cold...maybe we get lucky 02-03 style.   But the last one in 15-16 was a torch outside of 3 weeks which did include the blizzard....

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Strong Nino for next winter would not expect much in the way of cold...maybe we get lucky 02-03 style.   But the last one in 15-16 was a torch outside of 3 weeks which did include the blizzard....

I rather take my chance with a strong El Nino than another La Nina .

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

GFS and Euro are much warmer now for Sat while the meso models are chilly with temps in the upper 50's with strong NE winds...probably go with meso's on a back door setup.

If we’re getting maritime low cloud gunk, mesos definitely win. If the low clouds don’t happen we’ll probably make it into the 70s. Regardless, no heat for a while with the deep trough diving in. 

[SACRUS]

 

72/57 and on way to a warm start of the month in the low perhaps mid 80s .  Some 12-15 hours of heat Friday, coupled with recent very dryness, should get 90 / low 90s in the warm spots on a N-NW flow.  Flow turns around to ENE/NE by Friday overnight into Sat (6/3) perhaps a stray storm.  Saturday ugly with clouds, drizzle and temps hung up in the upper 50s / low 60s.  ULL looks positioned e/ne of the area through the weekend.  So Sun (6/4) may clear out a bit but still cool. 

 

Trughing into the northeast 6/4 - 6/8.  Keeps it cooler than normal overall by a bit and we'll see if rain chances materialize. Beyond there warming with the ECm most pronounced.