Saturn510 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think comparing the 6z 42 and 12z 36 its about the same on the nam maybe a hair west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM is trending to GFS but not there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I suggest we focus on the other shorrt range models such as MM5, WRF, ARW, NMM in order to predict the banding and the onset of cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 I suggest we focus on the other shorrt range models such as MM5, WRF, ARW, NMM in order to predict the banding and the onset of cyclogenesis. I'll look forward to that discussion. I've learned so much already with this system...A lot of good people and good information in this thread, nice work so far everyone. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Steve D UPDATE "A major winter storm is expected to impact the entire region with snowfall amounts of 1 to 2 feet along the coast and 6 to 12 inches along and west of the Delaware River. Strong winds around 15 to 30 mph will significantly reduce visibility, create snow drifts, and may cause power outages. In addition, coastal flooding along the New Jersey coast and Long Island will be a significant issue as well." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 9z SREF indies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Considering how the NAM is still trending west and expanding its precip shield, I would say philly could still see close to a foot, especially if it can get under a meso-band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 9z SREF indies... I know I'm feeling good about this one when 17/21 members give the Lehigh Valley .5" or more QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 48HR precip 1.50-1.75 for most of the Island..wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 According to the nam pretty much all of NJ including Philly will see at least 6 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 48HR precip 1.50-1.75 for most of the Island..wow It appears as though Long Island is going to get CRUSHED.. As far as totals, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that this storm matches the 12/19/09 storm as far as totals go, but with perhaps more wind.. 1-2 feet seems reasonable especially based upon ratios... Also, the beaches are going to get ROCKED.. Stay safe everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas everyone! Here's Mt. Holly's snow forecast map...looks like they're playing it pretty conservatively for now: can someone please post this iink? I seem to have lost it.. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas to all and a ho ho what a hell of a miracle. I would have been with 3-6" but many models show us getting over an 1" of QPF so we'd probably get 6-10" on average. Things look pretty windy as well, maybe some blizzard warning? I don't understand the NAM either, it looks kind of strung out with the low initially and the QPF fields are all over the place, but we've seen that so many times last year. Remember the 12/19 storm when all the models had agreed on a storm and the NAM dried us out within 36 hours of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 DT just put out a map which gives everybody 12" http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Man alive did the NAM scare me from Tau 12 to 18, I thought it was headed out to sea, its evolution in the orientation of the precip field from 12-18 and then to 24 is just odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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