penndotguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This has been one crazy week, amazing insight and knowledge on here and its good to see the passion about snow that wee all have. When I left work Thursday there was not a mention of snow, now just waiting for the phone to ring. GREAT JOB keep it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 There are many wildcards which go into those decisions, if his aircraft is needed for an international route at its next destination it will most definitely not be canceled unless absolutely necessary due to weather...if on the other hand there are 15 empty seats on it and the airline wants to use it for some other flight they have no aircraft for then they could cancel it. As an employee for the FAA (I am an Airways Transportation Safety Specialist @ the NYTRACON) International destination does play a part in it but safety has grown to such a concern level that with weather like is being predicted you could very well see flights bumped early. Domestics are bumped earlier. In all honesty IF we get the weather forcasted at this point you will likely see all major airports shut down at some point for some period of time. I am scheduled to work a 2-12 on both Sunday and Monday. Monday remains to be seen Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas! 9z SREFs are slightly closer to the coast. Looks like possible rain mixing in for the Jersey Shore and Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 6-hr .25" has captured all of E PA at 42... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/09/images/sref_x06_042s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas! What a night of model runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM Starting! Come on western trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 1.00 line clears Philly and all of NJ on this SREF! http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/09/images/sref_x24_054s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SREFS have at 42 have 984 low just east of De Bay!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WXSIM module has light snow arriving by 530am tomorrow morning becoming moderate snow by late morning and heavy snow during the late afternoon and evening. Total snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches here in the NW Philly burbs with 0.98" w.e. It also shows some light snow and flurries almost continuous between now and tomorrow am.Some light snow and virga showing up on radar now Sunday: Dense overcast. A chance of snow in the morning, then snow likely in the afternoon. High 29. Wind north-northeast around 6 mph, gusting to 12 mph, in the morning, becoming 14 mph, gusting to 21 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow accumulation 3 to 5 inches. Sunday night: Dense overcast. Snow very likely. Low 23. Wind north around 22 mph, gusting to 29 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow accumulation 4 to 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 1.00 line clears Philly and all of NJ on this SREF! http://www.nco.ncep....ef_x24_054s.gif very impressive...need the NAM to join in the next 30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM looks more amplified through 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SREFS are clearly in the GFS/MM5 camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas everyone! So my brother and his family are to fly in to PHL tomorrow late afternoon from ABQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas everyone! Here's Mt. Holly's snow forecast map...looks like they're playing it pretty conservatively for now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looks like a fair call at this point. Still plenty of time for adjustments with the 12z runs coming up along with realtime obs. Merry Christmas everyone! Here's Mt. Holly's snow forecast map...looks like they're playing it pretty conservatively for now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z nam digging harder than 6z should be closer to coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 RSM is a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 With a track that close, wouldn't there be some changeover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM probably won't be like the GFS but it does look like it'll come farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Heights along the east look a little lower at 12hr on the 12z than 18hr on 06z. About 25 miles SE of 06z. Hopefully the deeper trough can overcome that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Every run is closer to the coast and a bomb in a moderate La Nina....unreal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Every run is closer to the coast and a bomb in a moderate La Nina....unreal! The record -NAO/AO blocking looks to come through for us. Never doubt those AO statistics -- whenever we've seen the AO plummet to -4/-5, there's almost always some type of major event on the East Coast. Just remarkable. Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM closer to the coast at 24 hours Not by much tho...30 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Those of us on the Island need a slight shift East or I'm concerned about mixing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 when I woke up and heard the forecast I thought of this song... http://www.youtube.c...h?v=oObZFYsBMUM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Maybe it's just me, but it doesn't look all that hot at hour 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 At 36, the low is in the same location as 6z, but it's not as sheared out, which, as a result, brings more QPF west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM is coming in slightly less strong but track similar to 0z...precip shield extends west a bit more. Better hit overall... edit: make that slightly better...just looked at a regional view and it looks a touch better on the western flank but heavier qpf not as "robust." It's about 4 mb weaker thru hour 42 FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Maybe it's just me, but it doesn't look all that hot at hour 30. I agree only see through hr 30 and it seems east, but in previous runs it hooked west some. overall so far it look east of the GFS etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The NAM is always the last to join the parade... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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