A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Indeed it is Pete! I can't wait to see what we finally end up with. Keep in mind though that the NAM is nowhere near as bullish for our area. Hopefully the NAM continues with its bad track record this season lol. All other guidance is against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I just updated on FB to my friends with this: Merry Xmas! Winter Storm Watches up for all of NJ. Major snowatorm likely Sunday afternoon to Monday! Most models now bring a powerful storm close to the NJ coast and nearly stall it there for 12+ hrs! Along w/ heavy snow strong winds, beach erosion & coastal flooding possible. Inital accumulation thoughts: 6-12" all of NJ. These numbers may be conservative but also still possible for a shift east that could lower them by half. IF storm reaches its maximum potential 1-2 feet for all of NJ w/ blizzard conditions could be realized! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The weird thing is the GFS has this thing stall east of Cape May (by 25-50 miles) and it only prints out 1.25-1.75 " QPF, or about 10-15 inches of snow for us. I wonder if the precip becomes light as it stalls out? BTW watch for snow to actually start tonight ahead of the storm; I heard that there might be some slick spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tson96 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Rain??? http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KOKX&model=gfs&time=2010122506&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Indeed it is Pete! I can't wait to see what we finally end up with. Keep in mind though that the NAM is nowhere near as bullish for our area. If the NAM were correct, we'd get flurries. But that's the only model showing that. If the RGEM even came further west at 6z, maybe not as much QPF at the GFS but that's not that impt, it's the trends that are impt and they keep coming further and further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If the NAM were correct, we'd get flurries. But that's the only model showing that. If the RGEM even came further west at 6z, maybe not as much QPF at the GFS but that's not that impt, it's the trends that are impt and they keep coming further and further west. Yeah, theyre all further west except the NAM which has been the most inconsistent this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Rain??? http://coolwx.com/cg...2506&field=prec Wow is that a correct interpretation? Too bad they dont have one for JFK... based on their precip type loop looks like the mix line stays just south and east of here-- close call lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 err to be honest i would extend the winter storm watches a little futher west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Rain??? http://coolwx.com/cg...2506&field=prec The MOS for KFOK shows winds of 020-040 during that period, if thats the case its not going over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas to all ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Good morning. I just can't do an all nighter. Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 9am flight out of LGA on Monday 12/27. Screwed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABE SnowObserver Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Accu-Weather channel for our area (ch. 69 - Allentown) is saying perhaps a few inches and this WILL NOT be a major storm for the LV. The on-air met emphatically stated WILL NOT be a big storm and did not mention accumulation could be higher in this area (he did say more accumulation at the shore). I was surprised he did not leave any wiggle room. I guess since the NAM is not on board, both Mt. Holly and Accu-Weather feel confident that this will only be a nusciance snow in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 "I AM NOT COMFORTABLE GOING WITH A WATCH GIVEN THE HISTORY OF EACH INDIVIDUAL MODEL WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM, AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THE MODELS REVERSE COURSE AND TAKE ALL THIS PHASING FURTHER OUT TO SEA." Mt Holly AFD at 5:48 am. Hasn't it been a few model runs now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Accu-Weather channel for our area (ch. 69 - Allentown)) is saying perhaps a few inches and this WILL NOT be a najor storm for the LV. The on-air met emphatically stated WILL NOT be a big storm and did not mention accumulation could be higher in this area (he did say more accumulation at the shore). I was surprised he did not leave any wiggle room. I guess since the NAM is not on board, both Mt. Holly and Accu-Weather feel confident that this will only be a nusicance snow in this area. To be fair, he's not a Met, and is only reading what Accuweather tells him to read. If they sent him a note saying we'd get four feet, he'd read that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas everyone! WSW up and the Euro and GFS are finally in agreement on a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WOW! Merry Christmas Everyone and some great trends overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 In NYC: Channel 2 (WCBS) is predicting a general 8-14", with 10"+ on Long Island. Channel 4 (WNBC) is going with 6-9" in the City, with a foot possible on the Island. Channel 7 (WABC) says 6-12" in the City eastward, plus 12" possible on Long Island. Channel 12 (News12 Long Island) hasn't updated their forecast yet. News 12 New Jersey Ms Powers remains in comatose state, She follows what the network gives her. I don't she ever had an original thought on a forecast ever, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas to the NYC/PHL crowd!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas all! I'm trying to determine when the heavy stuff may start, so if I anyone following the model discussion knows, please share with all of us the benefit of your knowledge. In the general forum for the 6Z GFS discussion, someone mentioned precipitation reaching the Mason-Dixon line by 1:00 am Sunday but there was no mention of its intensity. I need to advise a family member driving north from Delaware to NYC tomorrow morning and another flying out of Philly on Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collegestudent11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas all! I'm trying to determine when the heavy stuff may start, so if I anyone following the model discussion knows, please share with all of us the benefit of your knowledge. In the general forum for the 6Z GFS discussion, someone mentioned precipitation reaching the Mason-Dixon line by 1:00 am Sunday but there was no mention of its intensity. I need to advise a family member driving north from Delaware to NYC tomorrow morning and another flying out of Philly on Sunday afternoon. Heavy qpf arrived per the 06z gfs by 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 9am flight out of LGA on Monday 12/27. Screwed? 330pm flight out of LGA Sunday, I wonder if I can squeeze out before the bad stuff hits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 so how much snow would central long island look like to get? 12-18"? and how would the winds be blizzard warning criteria? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Good morning. I just can't do an all nighter. Merry Christmas Might see some thundersnow with the mesoscale banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 330pm flight out of LGA Sunday, I wonder if I can squeeze out before the bad stuff hits? My opinion is cutting it close and airlines may cut flights due to the impending storn for coordination with other airports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just woke up and saw the 6z GFS...Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 My opinion is cutting it close and airlines may cut flights due to the impending storn for coordination with other airports. They will also want to get as many planes out of NYC before the snow hits so that may help him out of course unless his plane never gets flown into NYC for fear it gets stuck there. I give it 60/40 odds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 They will also want to get as many planes out of NYC before the snow hits so that may help him out of course unless his plane never gets flown into NYC for fear it gets stuck there. I give it 60/40 odds There are many wildcards which go into those decisions, if his aircraft is needed for an international route at its next destination it will most definitely not be canceled unless absolutely necessary due to weather...if on the other hand there are 15 empty seats on it and the airline wants to use it for some other flight they have no aircraft for then they could cancel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Hammer Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 so how much snow would central long island look like to get? 12-18"? and how would the winds be blizzard warning criteria? Personally, I'm going with an 8-12" for Western LI, 10-16"+ Eastern LI, so right now a good 8"-12" would be good for Central LI, Highest totals the further east you go barring any mixing issues, but right now leaning towards all snow... Blizzard = sustained winds of 35mph or higher for a prolonged period of time...I think the "official" warning criteria is for six hours of these sustained winds now?? Is that right? Used to be three hours, but I think the NWS changed this recently... Hope this helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 News 12 New Jersey Ms Powers remains in comatose state, She follows what the network gives her. I don't she ever had an original thought on a forecast ever, They rarely update their forecasts .... through their Traffic & Weather channel I've learned that they are predicting some 6-9" for Long Island. They usually run a little conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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