delgto04 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Always wanted to be at an Eagles game in a blizzard. Probably be cancelled tomorrow night though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 interesting to see the 6 Z nam is still holding ground on a further out to sea storm and grazes western NJ on west. Hopefully this is complete garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Interesting looking at the 06Z GFS MOS, it indicates a coastal front setting up near Islip with snow changing to rain over eastern Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Interesting looking at the 06Z GFS MOS, it indicates a coastal front setting up near Islip with snow changing to rain over eastern Long Island. Isnt the heaviest snow usually just west of the coastal front? Looks like a "vertical" rain/snow line which is good for the western part of the south shore to stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 interesting to see the 6 Z nam is still holding ground on a further out to sea storm and grazes western NJ on west. Hopefully this is complete garbage. its actually good to have something slightly out to sea, because everything else is trending so close to the coast, that if it gets any closer we will have mix issues. GFS and MM5 are almost a perfect match right now. RGEM is a big hit also. SREF trended west again. EURO trended west too. IOW dont worry too much about the NAM-- for now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Isnt the heaviest snow usually just west of the coastal front? Looks like a "vertical" rain/snow line which is good for the western part of the south shore to stay all snow. In PDII we had a coastal front set up over Long Island. I honestly don't know what to make of that MOS coastal front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 In PDII we had a coastal front set up over Long Island. I honestly don't know what to make of that MOS coastal front. There was a changeover in PD2? I dont think we had one here-- got 26-28 inches in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Here's the clown map for the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 There was a changeover in PD2? I dont think we had one here-- got 26-28 inches in that. Could have been one a year or two thereafter. I don't remember the exact happenings of every single snowstorm the last 25 years like some do on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looks like the GFS obviously thinks there will be a changeover on Long Island, based on those colorful clown maps lol. I get about a foot of snow, but it drops off sharply to my east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Could have been one a year or two thereafter. I don't remember the exact happenings of every single snowstorm the last 25 years like some do on this board. You mean Andrew? lol. I remember we had a coastal front like 5 miles south of us for Dec 2003. That was when I heard Craig Allen on the radio say that being just to the north or just to the west of the CF enhances snowfall rates considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 qpf is actually more here with the 0z gfs than the 6z gfs, I wonder if the coastal front is present on the 0z gfs mos also? Anyway, 6z gfs is a widespread 1-1.25" for the area, while the 0z gfs had a nice stripe of 1.50-1.75" qpf for the jersey shore and long island. Not that qpf actually means much this far out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think Lee Goldberg will be on channel seven in three minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Delmarva and Boston south and east get nailed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delgto04 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 From Mt. Holly: I AM NOT COMFORTABLE GOING WITH A WATCH GIVEN THE HISTORY OF EACH INDIVIDUAL MODEL WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM, AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THE MODELS REVERSE COURSE AND TAKE ALL THIS PHASING FURTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER, I AM LESS COMFORTABLE ESCHEWING A WATCH WITH THE POTENTIAL EVENT STARTING IN THE THIRD PERIOD. LWX AND AKQ ALSO HAVE ISSUED WATCHES. MISERY LOVES COMPANY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 From Mt. Holly: I AM NOT COMFORTABLE GOING WITH A WATCH GIVEN THE HISTORY OF EACH INDIVIDUAL MODEL WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM, AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THE MODELS REVERSE COURSE AND TAKE ALL THIS PHASING FURTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER, I AM LESS COMFORTABLE ESCHEWING A WATCH WITH THE POTENTIAL EVENT STARTING IN THE THIRD PERIOD. LWX AND AKQ ALSO HAVE ISSUED WATCHES. MISERY LOVES COMPANY. Who said that? Tony? Misery? I thought he loves snow BTW Lee Goldberg didnt change his outlook, going for a widespread 6-12" across the area, with 12 inches PLUS for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 In PDII we had a coastal front set up over Long Island. I honestly don't know what to make of that MOS coastal front. Coastal fronts are rare on Long Island...they form with more ease in New England but its possible for sure with the low as close as some guidance indicates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Coastal fronts are rare on Long Island...they form with more ease in New England but its possible for sure with the low as close as some guidance indicates. LG is saying light snow could get here as early as this evening, making for some slick spots on the roads. Sounds like primer for the big storm lo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 From Mt. Holly: I AM NOT COMFORTABLE GOING WITH A WATCH GIVEN THE HISTORY OF EACH INDIVIDUAL MODEL WITH REGARD TO THIS SYSTEM, AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THE MODELS REVERSE COURSE AND TAKE ALL THIS PHASING FURTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER, I AM LESS COMFORTABLE ESCHEWING A WATCH WITH THE POTENTIAL EVENT STARTING IN THE THIRD PERIOD. LWX AND AKQ ALSO HAVE ISSUED WATCHES. MISERY LOVES COMPANY. Odd to be afraid of putting a watch out, it can always be dropped, thats clearly stated all the time in the issuance statement but at the same time I do understand where he is coming from. At this point I highly doubt we see any reversal, at least a major one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am surprised Mt. Holly hasn't extended the WSW further west into PA. I mean, not even into the Poconos or Lehigh Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Lee Goldberg elaborated on his forecast. He said 6-12" for everyone except far to the NW. He also said a foot plus can happen anywhere on long island or the jersey shore as there will be banding close to the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hour 42 on the 6z GFS is a thing of beauty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Voyager, when does it end for us? Somewhere between hour 60 and 72? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Voyager, when does it end for us? Somewhere between hour 60 and 72? Looks to be done by 66 for the entire tri-state area per the Meteostar loop page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looks to be done by 66 for the entire tri-state area per the Meteostar loop page. Thanks, man! Merry Christmas and may we all get a foot plus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thanks, man! Merry Christmas and may we all get a foot plus! Merry Christmas to you as well, and it's looking better for a good hit tomorrow/Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 In NYC: Channel 2 (WCBS) is predicting a general 8-14", with 10"+ on Long Island. Channel 4 (WNBC) is going with 6-9" in the City, with a foot possible on the Island. Channel 7 (WABC) says 6-12" in the City eastward, plus 12" possible on Long Island. Channel 12 (News12 Long Island) hasn't updated their forecast yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looks to be done by 66 for the entire tri-state area per the Meteostar loop page. Steve - What a great present to wake up to! That would slam us, keep in mind what the ratios would be like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Hammer Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Here's my first call with totals... New York City: 8"-12" Western Long Island: 8"-12" Eastern Long Island: 10"-16"+ Northern New Jersey: 6"-10" Southern New Jersey: 8"-12" What are your guys' thoughts on how strong the wind gusts may be?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Steve - What a great present to wake up to! That would slam us, keep in mind what the ratios would be like! Indeed it is Pete! I can't wait to see what we finally end up with. Keep in mind though that the NAM is nowhere near as bullish for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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