tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 18 sub 1012 low about 50-75 miles south of panama city continues to be more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 whats key imo for this storm to be a MECS for phl-nyc-nj-ct is when the trof goes neutral and when the 500mb low closes off. If it's sooner...say over KY like 12/21 Euro had then it would pull the storm back to the NJ coast and result like that euro runs 971-985 mb bomb off NJ. If its later then the low will be more and more east as the closed off h5 low will pull in the storm too late and nail SNE mostly. there are the two tracks imo ...1) mecs nyc/phl/nj/li 2) sne mecs..secs nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The GFS seems a little faster than 18z with the Gulf low, maybe by 2-3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am sure that the 00Z UKMET will come in well east, but remember with the snowstorm that crashed the Metrodome roof, it was well southeast of the other models with the primary low pressure at hour 48 and 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Remember guys, try to have only one person doing pbp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 21 sub 1008 low over just south of the central panhandle coast of fl...precip streaming up into southern va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 if someone else wants to do the pbp, go for it..i dont have to do it all the time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 rgem? is it based off the gfs or the other globals? RGEM is a very good short range model. No association with NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Tombo, keep going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIsevereWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Monmouth County: 13.6" (this was ATLH... only one I could find...) Atlantic City: 9.2" Islip: 24.7" () ... 1.83" liquid.... Millville: 5.2" Yes Virginia...there is a santa claus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 if someone else wants to do the pbp, go for it..i dont have to do it all the time.. Yes you do - you are good luck!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'll be on at 11 with a First Call. I'm still confused, but have to go with something. We just can't ignore this new 00z data. Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 24 sub 1008 low by ocala fl...trof more amplified and higher hgts bending back towards the coast more so than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Huzzah! SW makes it around the base of the trough before it goes neutral/neg. A++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 27 sub 1008 low over jacksonville...lgt precip up to dc lgt to mod into southern va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'll be on at 11 with a First Call. I'm still confused, but have to go with something. We just can't ignore this new 00z data. Glenn Do you guys put it on the web for those outside your market? If so, where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 30 sub 1004 about 50 miles east of savanna ga...hgts are bending back more towards the coast than 18z...trof diving deeper into gulf lgt to mod precip uo to central va...lgt precip just past dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 looking at 24 hours, this is a hit. look how the trof is sharpening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 33 sub 1000 low about 25 miles south of cape fear lgt precip uo to about phl...lgt to mod precip knocking on dc's door..h5 low oveer eastern oh/ wa pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 00Z NAM BUFKIT Snowfall Totals EWR: 8.8" LGA: 13.4" JFK: 14.4" PHL: 4.5" TTN: 6.8" HPN: 10.5" ILG: 2.2" Any other requests? ABE and AVP. I'm in the middle so I can draw my conclusions for my area from those two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Do you guys put it on the web for those outside your market? If so, where? There's nobody here but me, so I might be able to do a quick webcast update after the news. Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 36 sub 996 just south of hse...h5 low starting to dive into the base of the trof.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 UKMET is WAAAAAAAAAY west!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Talk about a rollercoaster ride. Haven't been around much between work, a 36-hour poker jag in AC yesterday (I won $500, woohoo!) and our drive down to Charlotte today to spend Christmas with Mom and my sister's family, so I haven't been able to follow this one closely. However, I just spent much of the past hour trying to catch up on the last day or two and it reads like what Robert Ludlum would've written if he were a met, lol. If there ends up being a decent snowstorm, after all, from Philly to NYC (and elsewhere), someone needs to write this all up and try to explain what exactly happened and why - and maybe use that to correct some obvious biases/errors in almost every model that runs. I know model error bars obviously decrease as we get closer to an event, especially within 36 hours, so if we get model consensus on tonight's 00Z runs, then I guess we'll have to start taking this threat seriously. The only bad thing, for me, is that if it does pan out, I'll miss it, which will be really annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 looking at 24 hours, this is a hit. look how the trof is sharpening Surface low forming off of georgia and already bombing out. Trough going negative. Major hit inbound. It's coming down to the wire, folks, Lets hope things come together as planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'll be on at 11 with a First Call. I'm still confused, but have to go with something. We just can't ignore this new 00z data.Glenn Good luck Glenn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 39 sub 992 about 25 miles east of hse lgt to mod precip south jerz to just about dc..delmarva mod precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'll be on at 11 with a First Call. I'm still confused, but have to go with something. We just can't ignore this new 00z data. Glenn The way you are able to convey this information to the general population, I think most people are willing to accept and stay with you on a forecast that's evolving the way this one is. You've made it clear that this is somewhat or completely unprecedented wrt the lack of a model consensus at this range, so I like going with a first call and hedging a bit in case the Euro clobbers us later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 There's nobody here but me, so I might be able to do a quick webcast update after the news. Glenn Hey Glenn, glad you found your way over to American. I will be watching, give us a shoutout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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