nzucker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 who's for a flip flop trending east? I like your first comment better....I'm not concerned about the "tick west"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow, what a turn of events over the past 24 hours. Merry Christmas everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 did the ncep server blow up - what happens at hour 54 etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 stop that Wake up lol. Can we get a qpf map again? Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Finally, Upton revised their morning discussion to explain their conservative rationale (to put it lightly, no pun intended), behind the limitation in their snow totals, apparently completely ignoring the 00Z GFS (the 06Z probably wasn't available when they posted their revision but probably wouldn't have made a difference since their reliance is being based upon the HPC/SREF/NAM QFP). UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS IN SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NEAR FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OFFSHORE OF CAROLINAS. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...SOME DIFFERENCES ARISE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE IN A NORTHEAST DIRECTION. SNOW COULD START AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF WILL FALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. GENERALLY GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A LARGE CHANGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z RUNS FROM MORE OFFSHORE TO CLOSER TO COAST. THE NAM AND GEM ARE FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE SREF IN BETWEEN. THE SREF HAS TRENDED HIGHER WITH PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE PRECIP AS WELL. THEREFORE...POPS INCREASED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WITH A BLEND OF HPC/SREF/NAM QPF AS WELL AS ACCOUNTING FOR AROUND 10 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE GENERALLY 6 TO 9 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST OR IF MESOSCALE ENHANCED BANDING SETS UP. THEREFORE WINTER STORM WATCH AS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL AND WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AS MODEL AGREEMENT HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. STEEP GRADIENT IN PRESSURE AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS DUE TO BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER CHANCE OF THESE WINDS TOWARDS THE COAST. DEEP SURFACE LOW PASSES FROM EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA ON MONDAY...WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND GIVES WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEAST U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 did the ncep server blow up - what happens at hour 54 etc they dont want us seeing what happens next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wake up lol. Can we get a qpf map again? Thanks in advance! lol qpf for what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I like your first comment better....I'm not concerned about the "tick west"... Im playing the trends. after that, just teasin. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Finally, Upton revised their morning discussion to explain their conservative rationale (to put it lightly, no pun intended), behind the limitation in their snow totals, apparently completing ignoring the 00Z GFS (the 06Z probably wasn't available when they posted their revision but probably wouldn't have made a difference since their reliance is being based upon the HPC/SREF/NAM QFP). UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS IN SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM NEAR FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OFFSHORE OF CAROLINAS. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...SOME DIFFERENCES ARISE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE IN A NORTHEAST DIRECTION. SNOW COULD START AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF WILL FALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. GENERALLY GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A LARGE CHANGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z RUNS FROM MORE OFFSHORE TO CLOSER TO COAST. THE NAM AND GEM ARE FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE SREF IN BETWEEN. THE SREF HAS TRENDED HIGHER WITH PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE PRECIP AS WELL. THEREFORE...POPS INCREASED LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WITH A BLEND OF HPC/SREF/NAM QPF AS WELL AS ACCOUNTING FOR AROUND 10 TO 1 SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE GENERALLY 6 TO 9 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST OR IF MESOSCALE ENHANCED BANDING SETS UP. THEREFORE WINTER STORM WATCH AS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL AND WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AS MODEL AGREEMENT HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. STEEP GRADIENT IN PRESSURE AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS DUE TO BAROCLINICITY WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER CHANCE OF THESE WINDS TOWARDS THE COAST. DEEP SURFACE LOW PASSES FROM EAST OF CAPE COD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA ON MONDAY...WITH SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND GIVES WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEAST U.S. They probably dont know that the RGEM and MM5 are huge hits also. Honestly, this is looking as good or better than any storm from last year-- lets hope it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 lol qpf for what? for the tristate area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 They probably dont know that the RGEM and MM5 are huge hits also. Honestly, this is looking as good or better than any storm from last year-- lets hope it holds. Trust me, they saw the MM5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 for the tristate area for what the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 good night all. see you later today! merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SREF are much higher also-- John posted those-- in the 1" plus QPF realm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSeNJ Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I hope your right this run is about as deep and west as this storm could possibly get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 for what the gfs? Yes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yes lol heres your snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 getting some sleep, Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yes lol There is one on page 3 of the 6z thread. A lot wetter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What happened to u can't get big snows in la nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What happened to u can't get big snows in la nina when you have a -nao block like we just went through anything can happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If you go here , you can see the 06Z RGEM 3 hourly intervals centered for the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 heres your snowfall map I actually like this a lot better than the other maps, I can see the colors better I saw it in the other thread-- but its only out to 60 hours Is it over by then? Basically had 2" QPF for Chesapeake Bay and Boston, 1 plus for everyone in between,..... 1.5 inch QPF for Jersey Shore and Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What happened to u can't get big snows in la nina The ground looks pretty brown out there to me right now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I posted in the 06Z main thread that I know one thing for sure in this period of uncertainty, and thats that CPK and EWR have zero chance of breaking their daily snowfall records for 12/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The ground looks pretty brown out there to me right now..... and I hate it when they say "la nina" without qualifying it to moderate to strong lol. BTW if this thing pans out it wouldnt be over until Tuesday Morning it looks like (72 hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I posted in the 06Z main thread that I know one thing for sure in this period of uncertainty, and thats that CPK and EWR have zero chance of breaking their daily snowfall records for 12/26. it would be truly amazing if this scored a coup over 12/26/47!!! we'l see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I posted in the 06Z main thread that I know one thing for sure in this period of uncertainty, and thats that CPK and EWR have zero chance of breaking their daily snowfall records for 12/26. That was an amazing storm-- they say 2/06 broke its record (LA NINA BTW).... but Im almost sure there was more snow in 3/1888 and 12/47 than that! 3/1888 has reports of 26" from southern Bklyn and 38" from the north shore of Queens, so NYC probably got at least 30 inches in that one-- hard to measure with all the wind. In any case, if we always measured snow at 6 hourly intervals, they would probably both have been over 30 inches. Perhaps Jan 1996 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Lets stop it with the la nina stuff guys -- both Jan 96 and Feb 06 happened in a la nina.... it would be more correct to say mod-strong la nina preclude big snows usually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Lets stop it with the la nina stuff guys -- both Jan 96 and Feb 06 happened in a la nina.... it would be more correct to say mod-strong la nina preclude big snows usually Moderate-strong La Ninas its very hard, even this is an atypical scenario overall for a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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