CooL Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 wow its just snowing itself out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSeNJ Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I would rather see it a little farther west Keep it there-- perfect place lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The low literally hasn't moved between 42-28 hours. SNE getting destroyed at Hr48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the dc crew will have a nice surprise to wake up to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 im listening to the xmas story on tbs while watching this. ralphie just said "oh F" while out changing the tire with his dad. now watching the models. good stuff. lol. hour 42 on the 6z...S Jersey mixing issues...oh fudge! GFS 6z track is a wee too close for coastal S Jersey's comfort... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 51 sub 976 75 miles east of toms river.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 this is the mm5 at 48 hour of it's 00z package - it would appear as though it's identical based upon your post.. http://cheget.msrc.s...slp.48.0000.gif Pretty much, except the gfs has it down to 976 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 1.25 qpf to about phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I would rather see it a little farther west Youre in SE NJ? I dont think you want it any different from this track-- maybe even a bit east, because of mixing issues. For Long Island, a east of Cape May by 50 miles track and stall is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Dude, this is the mm5 to a tee.. amazing... Look at the 54 hour panel of the 00z mm5 hr 51 sub 976 75 miles east of toms river.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Youre in SE NJ? I dont think you want it any different from this track-- maybe even a bit east, because of mixing issues. For Long Island, a east of Cape May by 50 miles track and stall is perfect. This storm wraps up so much on the 6z GFS that South Jersey would mix verbatim on the GFS...the 0 line goes to the Parkway from AC on south at hour 39 and 42. This track is gold for Philly, Baltimore, SE PA, C and N NJ (west of the NJ Turnpike) based on QPF...that's where the CCB looks to set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSeNJ Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thanks for correcting me as I meant east. Too much eggnog. Youre in SE NJ? I dont think you want it any different from this track-- maybe even a bit east, because of mixing issues. For Long Island, a east of Cape May by 50 miles track and stall is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Expect the NAM to play catchup today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 cant wait for the 12z run. this run may be off tho. but trending in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 cant wait for the 12z run. this run may be off tho. but trending in the right direction. Trending? You mean it could go even more west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 this run is about as deep and west as this storm could possibly get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 cant wait for the 12z run. this run may be off tho. but trending in the right direction. This actually looks like the ECM did when it was showing the HECS ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This storm wraps up so much on the 6z GFS that South Jersey would mix verbatim on the GFS...the 0 line goes to the Parkway from AC on south at hour 39 and 42. This track is gold for Philly, Baltimore, SE PA, C and N NJ (west of the NJ Turnpike) based on QPF...that's where the CCB looks to set up. I just hope the mix line stays on the boardwalk and nowhere else. We must be aware that this is December, late December yes, but SST arent as cold as they will be in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Trending? You mean it could go even more west? west, yes, just a hair! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 this run is about as deep and west as this storm could possibly get Thats what they said about the last GFS lol. But its interesting to see it match the ultra hi res MM5 Hopefully it sticks to this track and stall thing in the same place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 how's up to hour 66 looking? 51, 54, 57, 60 etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 who's for a flip flop trending east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 west, yes, just a hair! I guess that would be ok lol-- we still have a slight bit of wiggle room if the mix line is down by ACY on this run. Typically it takes four hours for the mix line to get from there to here, six hours for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 this run is about as deep and west as this storm could possibly get correct... people need to relax some, with the trough axis as far east as this is, the only reason it cuts further west in the track is because of deepening. The more the storm amplifies the more it pulls "left" in its poleward momentum. The GFS is now bombing the low down into the sub 975 range...not sure how much deeper this could get. Perhaps a few mb maybe at most...unless you think this might get down to 960 the threat of this pulling much further west is minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I just hope the mix line stays on the boardwalk and nowhere else. We must be aware that this is December, late December yes, but SST arent as cold as they will be in February. I hope the mix line stays offshore, considering I'm going to be staying in Atlantic City. But technically the hotels are a few feet west of the boardwalk ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 who's for a flip flop trending east? stop that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Did the recon data go in for this run? I recall reading they were going at 1 AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This actually looks like the ECM did when it was showing the HECS ... yea its almost a carbon copy of one of those EC runs from 3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It seems that the NAM is lagging behind here and should come back towards a euro solution by 12z imo...The GFS is locked in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 can we get a 4th straight run where the hpc says toss it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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